It's time for the agonizing exercise of picking 12 NBA All-Stars for each conference. Rules:
• I follow the same format as fans and media in voting starters, and coaches in choosing reserves. I had an official ballot for the starters. Coaches have more leeway with positions in picking reserves. Their ballots were due Monday. Any reserve picks in the media don't actually count.
• I usually focus on production in each particular season, but that was trickier this time. Starter ballots were due when most teams had played between 25 and 30 games. Lots of candidates missed time due to injuries and coronavirus protocols. Samples are smaller, choices blurrier.
Eastern Conference
Starters
G Bradley Beal
G James Harden
FC Giannis Antetokounmpo
FC Kevin Durant
FC Joel Embiid
• On the Lowe Post podcast, I mentioned the possibility of leaving Harden off the Eastern Conference roster after he loafed his way out of Houston. His play with the Brooklyn Nets has hammered home how silly that would have been.
He starts over Kyrie Irving. Harden is flat-out better. When Irving anointed Harden the point guard, he stated the obvious.
• A lot of coaches have grumbled that we should reward candidates on good teams. Interestingly, I have not heard any such grumbling directed at Beal. Perhaps the coaches are relieved the voting took Beal's candidacy out of their hands.
Beal is averaging 33 points on solid shooting -- including 54% on 2s -- for a team that has had nothing close to a second reliable option. When Russell Westbrook rests, the Wizards surround Beal mostly with untested young guys, middling centers, and backup point guards. Beal is seeing two and three defenders every time he peers around screens.
On the right night, Westbrook helps in transition, sets up shooters, and draws some attention in the half-court -- the sheen of past dominance. On the wrong nights ... let's be polite and say there have been a lot of wrong nights. (Washington is 4-3 when Westbrook sits and 7-14 with him, though five of those seven wins have come in the last nine days as Westbrook surges.)
The Wizards score 112.5 points per 100 possessions with Beal on the floor, and 98.3 when he sits. Their defense is abysmal, and some of that is on Beal. He runs into lots of picks.
But the Wiz aren't surrounding him with the 1992 New York Knicks. Beal tries. He doesn't fall asleep, or lurch out of Washington's scheme.
Reserves
• This was the toughest set of choices in a decade doing this column. There are 20-ish plausible candidates. You could argue there is only one true lock: whichever Nets guard you leave off your starters ballot, and that is Irving here.
• A lot of media made picks early -- a week or two ago. A lot has happened since, including the reemergence of Jimmy Butler as a candidate. By decision day, Butler had played in 18 of the Miami Heat's 30 games -- posting All-Star numbers. Miami is 11-8 with Butler in the lineup, and 3-9 without him.
Butler's case snuck up on me. Butler was so quiet over the season's first four games -- averaging only 12 points. Remove them -- and that's not entirely fair -- and we have 14 games. Butler has been a triple-double machine in those games, but with so many good first-time candidates, I felt less queasy leaving him off.
There will be an outcry if Miami at 14-17 gets two All-Stars in Butler and Bam Adebayo. I understand that only to a point. Everyone assumes the Boston Celtics will get both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, and Boston is only 1.5 games ahead of Miami. Records are so compressed in this rickety pandemic season. The Knicks are a feel-good story, the Heat a disappointment, the Chicago Bulls a ceaseless mediocrity -- and yet almost nothing separates them in the standings.
The Celtics have been qualitatively better than Miami; they have outscored opponents by 1.2 points per 100 possessions, while the Heat are minus-2.6 -- and about even with Butler and Adebayo on the floor. If that figure were stronger, I'd be more comfortable slotting both Miami stars in given we just watched them rampage to the NBA Finals. That figure would be stronger if Miami's supporting cast was even close to healthy.
But they haven't been, and it feels better to spread the love in this weird season.
• Heat fans might question Durant's staring spot given he has appeared in only 19 games. My counter: When you are in the MVP conversation before health and safety protocols -- and injury caution -- take you out, you're an All-Star. Also, it's Kevin Durant.
• OK: Tatum, Brown, and Adebayo all get in. Statistically, none is quite a "lock." But both Brown and Tatum are putting up huge counting stats on solid efficiency -- more than solid in Brown's case. Both have improved as playmakers. Both are good to great defenders. They have carried a thin Boston team with Kemba Walker missing half the season.
• Adebayo is averaging 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on 57% shooting. A few playmaking hub bigs have similar numbers: Julius Randle, Nikola Vucevic, Domantas Sabonis, and Pascal Siakam. (Siakam is a case of too little, too late, but it has been great seeing Spicy P back recently.)
Adebayo is the best and most versatile defender in that group, and only peak Siakam is even in the same universe. Adebayo has been just as efficient on offense as Sabonis, who made my ballot last season but falls short here. (I'd have zero issue with Sabonis making it. He's awesome.)
• Three spots left. Another question that emerged over the past 10 days as the Milwaukee Bucks slumped: Is Khris Middleton still a lock? I love Middleton's game. I voted him All-NBA last season.
Most would reply that he's firing up 50-40-90 shooting for a very good team. Tobias Harris is shooting 51-40-89 for the East's No. 1 seed, and I don't hear clamoring for him as a lock. Zach LaVine is at 52-43-86. Vucevic checks in at 48-40-86, Randle at 48-41-80.5, Terry Rozier at 50-46-80.5, and Gordon Hayward at 48.5-43-86.5. All could miss out.
The argument for Middleton would be some mix of team performance and defense. The Bucks are really good -- 18-13, but with a fat point differential indicative of a team better than that record. They have outscored opponents by 4.1 points per 100 possessions when Middleton plays without Antetokounmpo. Middleton is averaging 30.5 points per 36 minutes on 54% shooting in non-Giannis minutes, maybe a sign he could survive as a No. 1 option.
Overall, he's averaging a cool 20.5 points and 5.7 assists -- a tick behind Antetokounmpo for the team lead in dimes.
But has Middleton been Milwaukee's second-best player? Jrue Holiday was at least Middleton's equal before missing eight games due to health and safety protocols. Milwaukee is 3-5 in that stretch, with Middleton wobbling a bit under increased pressure -- including two nearly invisible performances in consecutive losses to the Toronto Raptors.
He's a tad overrated on defense. (Advanced metrics mostly agree on that.) He's probably ... average?
What does the All-Star landscape look like if Middleton and LaVine switch teams? Or Middleton and Fred VanVleet?
Milwaukee and Middleton recovered in back-to-back wins, but that losing streak dragged Middleton's statistical résumé into the muck of this mix. And given that several other candidates are compiling efficient numbers as undisputed No. 1 options, I'm inclined to reward them.
• Before that: Ben Simmons gets one spot. He has been more aggressive as a scorer over the past month, even seeking contact around the rim. He's shooting 73.5% on seven free throws per game this month. If that's a harbinger, he will ascend another notch.
Simmons might be the best perimeter defender in basketball. His ability and willingness to defend every position -- including point guards -- means opposing offenses can't scheme away from him as they might against some of the best wing defenders.
Simmons is Philly's main generator of 3-pointers, and he's putting up 16-8-8. The playoffs loom as the ultimate referendum, but he's an All-Star.
• Two spots left. The final candidates were Middleton, VanVleet, LaVine, Randle, Vucevic, Trae Young, and Butler. There is a very slight dividing line between that group and the next tier of Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Harris, Hayward, Rozier, Jerami Grant, Myles Turner, Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Collin Sexton, and maybe Clint Capela and John Collins. You can make reasonable cases for almost all these guys, especially Grant, Sabonis, Hayward, and Harris.
Hayward and Grant have tapered, and Detroit has the East's worst record. That's not on Grant, of course; opponents have outscored the Pistons by only 1.8 points per 100 possessions with Grant on the floor -- a minor miracle. But he is down to 44% shooting and doesn't create much for others.
Harris is in best passing stretch of his career, and has played with fierce decisiveness. The Sixers have outscored opponents when Harris plays without Simmons and Embiid, though mostly due to stingy team defense. This is a painful omission, but Harris is still more of a gap filler around Simmons and Embiid. (He is filling those gaps really well.)
• I'll be honest: Choosing between Middleton, VanVleet, LaVine, Randle, Vucevic, Young, and Butler was impossible. Pick two names from a hat.
VanVleet's advanced numbers are bonkers. He's 18th in ESPN's adjusted plus-minus, and eighth (!) -- one ahead of LeBron James -- in 538's catch-all metric. VanVleet's traditional stats are more pedestrian: 20 points and 6.6 assists on 41% shooting -- 44% on 2s, 37.6% on 3s.
What's going on? Some advanced numbers place heavy weight on the Raptors winning the minutes VanVleet plays without either or both of Lowry and Siakam; they are plus-5.3 per 100 possessions with VanVleet on the floor, and minus-4.7 when he sits. VanVleet is second in the league in minutes -- crucial considering every other key Raptor has missed time. (The Raptors quietly have the East's third-best point differential, behind only Milwaukee and Brooklyn -- and just ahead of Philly.)
Advanced numbers seem to love ball handlers who shoot lots of 3s and rarely turn it over. VanVleet and Mike Conley are this season's prime examples. Maybe advanced numbers overrate these sorts of players. Maybe turnovers -- especially steals -- are that damaging.
VanVleet is a fitting heir to Lowry in that traditional stats will never capture his impact. VanVleet is doing something helpful every second he is on the floor. He's an ace defender at both guard positions. He almost always makes the right pass, at the right time, spoon-feeding teammates into success. He bobs and weaves and screens without the ball, contorting the defense in subtle ways.
He'd be a great choice. I got stuck on that 44% mark on 2s. VanVleet is a shaky finisher around the rim; larger defenders can swallow him up at times. He also has lots of championship-level experience around him as compared to someone like Randle.
• Maybe it's a fluke. Maybe we will look back in two months and wonder how the hell Randle made every midrange jumper and 40% of his 3s on pretty high volume -- 4.5 attempts per 36 minutes. A player who was once a little greedy and out of control dribbling is now making the right decision almost every time: 23 points, 11 rebounds 5.5 assists on that 48/41/80.5 shooting line. Wow.
Randle is in better shape, and that has shown on defense. He is no longer a glaring liability defending power forwards in space. On some nights, he's downright good -- alert, engaged, arms spread wide. He is a better defender than Vucevic, though at a less pivotal position. (The flip side: Randle's bad nights on defense are less damaging than Vucevic's.) The Knicks -- the woebegone Knicks -- have outscored opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions with Randle on the floor. They are getting walloped when Randle sits, which he doesn't do much; Randle leads the league in minutes.
• Opponents slaughtering the Magic when Vucevic plays has nothing to do with Vucevic. He is the only thing keeping Orlando relevant amid endless injuries. His shooting and playmaking are more valuable at center than the same skill set in Randle at power forward. Their advanced numbers are neck and neck.
This isn't fair, but if we're splitting impossibly thin hairs, I'm taking the guy whose team is winning when he's on the floor. And don't pretend you thought the Knicks had some killer starting five around Randle.
• I have been lower than consensus on LaVine, and some issues persist. He tosses away too many turnovers. There is at times something frenetic and twitchy about his off-the-bounce game -- almost as if he's playing solo, moving in ways that confuse teammates. He still ball-watches some on defense, and commits occasional gaffes that are unrecoverable -- fatal back-cuts, miscommunications, ducking screens against good shooters. These Bulls, like every prior LaVine team, have been better with LaVine on the bench -- though the margin is shrinking of late. (The same is true for Vucevic this season, though it does not seem a disqualifying factor for him.)
But the scoring and shooting numbers cannot be discounted. LaVine is averaging almost 29 points on ludicrous shooting: 43% on 3s, 58% on 2s. He is one of the league's half-dozen most explosive cutters.
He's calmer making plays. When teams trap him, LaVine slips more easy passes to Thaddeus "Thadgic" Young (hat tip: Stacey King) and Wendell Carter Jr. -- and watches as the Bulls spray the ball around.
Young has been Chicago's second-best player. The Bulls have outscored opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions when Young and LaVine share the floor. Some of LaVine's bad on-court/off-court splits have to do with teammates -- with LaVine starting alongside an ever-changing cast of unproven guys as the usual suspects nurse injuries.
LaVine is still a minus defender, but he has been more diligent. His rotations are a little crisper. He works one-on-one. He can be a vertical presence at the rim. That shows up in advanced stats, which don't rate him much differently on that end (if at all) than Middleton, Vucevic, Trae Young, Beal, and others.
• For some, this spot will be between Trae Young and LaVine. Neither is helping on defense. It really comes down to Young's passing and free throws against LaVine's ultra-efficient shooting. Advanced stats lean Young. The Hawks still can't muster any offense when he sits. Their teams are about equal. I'll shrug and take LaVine.
In a high-stakes playoff game, I'd prefer VanVleet and Middleton to both. In choosing this season's All-Stars, I'm taking LaVine by the slightest of margins.
So my East reserves: Tatum, Brown, Adebayo, Irving, Simmons, Randle, LaVine
Western Conference
Whew. Onto what turned out to be the easier conference, for once.
Starters
G Damian Lillard
G Stephen Curry
FC LeBron James
FC Kawhi Leonard
FC Nikola Jokic
The only debate was whom to "bench" among Curry, Lillard, and Luka Doncic. All three are MVP candidates for limited and injury-riddled teams. Curry and Lillard have shot it better. Doncic is the superior playmaker, though Curry is brilliant and Lillard makes subtle improvements every season. Lillard is posting a career-best assist rate, and dishing 8.8 dimes per game since CJ McCollum's injury.
Doncic's size and rebounding offer the Dallas Mavericks more schematic flexibility on defense.
The Portland Trail Blazers are punching above their weight at 18-12 with a negative point differential. They are doing so because Lillard has gone scorched-earth in crunch time. He is shooting a remarkable 24-of-39 -- 10-of-17 on 3s! -- in the last five minutes of games when the score is within five points. Portland is 12-4 in such games, the league's second-best record.
Lillard's clutch brilliance and the Mavs' sub-.500 record send Doncic to the bench.
Reserve locks
Doncic
Rudy Gobert
Anthony Davis
Paul George
• There's not much to discuss. Davis will miss the All-Star Game due to injury, but he deserves the on-paper spot for his résumé.
That leaves three spots for at least 11 candidates: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, DeMar DeRozan, De'Aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Christian Wood, Ja Morant, and perhaps a couple of others.
There is not much separating these guys. Given that closeness, the Phoenix Suns -- 20-10, fourth in the West and now tied with the Clippers and Lakers in the loss column -- deserve at least one spot, and it goes to Paul here. He edges Booker in basically every category but raw points.
Paul is the far better defender, even if the Suns stash him on nonthreatening wings whenever possible. He is still hugely effective in that role as a ball hawk always in the right place. Paul remains an advanced stats juggernaut, well above Booker (who ranks pretty poorly relative to this group by most advanced metrics) and almost everyone here. He has imbued Phoenix with methodical, calculated toughness.
• Mitchell's season has been a little scattershot for lock status. He's shooting only 43% thanks to a career-worst 46% mark on 2s, and goes through long stretches when he forces his offense -- and the scoring-playmaking balance veers out of whack.
But he has improved as a distributor. He's slinging a career-best 5.2 dimes, which isn't chump change on a team that shares the assist bounty. He bears the brunt of every opposing defensive game plan -- of being the guy who draws the toughest defender every night. That makes life easier for everyone else. Pretty much every lineup composition featuring Mitchell has fared well.
When an elite opposing defense can slow the Utah Jazz's blender late, the burden falls to Mitchell to create something from nothing. He is typically up to it. (Ask the Denver Nuggets.) The Jazz live with Mitchell forcing it, at times, because he is a dynamic shot-maker. He's also jacking more 3s, and draining a career-high 39% of them.
With Utah running roughshod, Mitchell is in.
• One spot left. Eek.
• Fox has faded with the Sacramento Kings. He's down to 33.6% from deep. He isn't the main problem with Sacto's league-worst defense, but he also isn't the solution. He'll make it in due time.
• Wood has only played 17 games, and doesn't have the track record to get in based on that body of work -- despite All-Star numbers of all stripes. (His defense has left something to be desired.)
• Morant has played 19 of the Memphis Grizzlies' 27 games, and has been a little uneven. He's shooting 21% from deep. His precociousness on offense and mature, team-first approach has resulted in something of a pass for pretty bad defense -- which is fine given how damn good he has been.
• DeRozan is, as ever, a midrange maestro and crunch time stalwart, and has blended well with the San Antonio Spurs' marauding kiddos as a distributor -- averaging a career-best 6.9 assists. The Spurs have outscored opponents by five points per 100 possessions when DeRozan plays without LaMarcus Aldridge, signaling that the struggles of San Antonio's normal starting five have less to do with DeRozan.
But DeRozan is a negative on defense, and lagging behind in most advanced stats.
• Gilgeous-Alexander has a sneakily strong case. He is probably the best defender among this group aside from Paul, and he's averaging 22.6 points on an even 50-40 shooting line. The Oklahoma City Thunder offense craters without Gilgeous-Alexander. The 12-19 Thunder are hanging around teams who entered the season with grander ambitions. He'd be a worthy choice.
• But I'm going with Williamson. Ingram was the New Orleans Pelicans' best player over the first 15 or so games, but Williamson has blasted past him since Stan Van Gundy unleashed Point Zion. The shooting efficiency is staggering. Williamson has hit almost 62% on 2s. On some nights, opponents can't keep him off the line or the offensive glass. Williamson jumps three times before most human basketball players get up and down once. His explosiveness is legitimately shocking in a league featuring the world's best athletes.
Williamson is a liability on defense -- slow in space, occasionally disinterested on the defensive glass, a target for pick-and-roll chess masters. The Pelicans are losing the minutes Williamson plays without Ingram, though the carnage is slightly worse in the reverse scenario, per NBA.com.
But other than Gilgeous-Alexander -- not exactly a stopper -- none of the final candidates is a plus defender. (Ingram's progress on that end has been a slight disappointment. But he is up to 39% from deep, having a solid all-around season.) Williamson's supernova offense gets him the nod.
So, last three reserves:
Paul
Mitchell
Williamson
• We (or the league office, anyway) still have the matter of an Anthony Davis injury replacement. There is something ceremonial about an injury add-on, and so I'm all for indulging a bit of ceremony to honor Conley with his first career selection.
I haven't known quite what to make of Conley's season. He's averaging 16.4 points and 5.6 dimes in 29 minutes -- not eye-popping, even if he (barely) leads the Jazz in assists. Utah went 6-0 this month with Conley out nursing a hamstring injury, with five wins coming by double figures. His centrality faded as the rest of the Jazz rose up. Quin Snyder has tethered Conley to Gobert, bringing them in and out of games almost in sync, making it harder to untangle Conley's individual impact.
And yet, advanced stats paint Conley as maybe the most deserving reserve. He is the VanVleet of the West in that advanced numbers portray a very different player than traditional stats -- and, sometimes, the eye test -- and for some of the same reasons.
Conley is a steady, low-turnover player who shoots efficiently from pretty much everywhere and is generally doing the right thing every moment -- even if he is no longer the defender he was in his prime. Once choosy, Conley is letting it fly from deep.
There were a bunch of early-season games, as Mitchell got off to an erratic start and Bojan Bogdanovic worked off the rust, when Conley was Utah's most reliable and maybe best player. The Jazz have outscored opponents by a monstrous 16 points per 100 possessions when Conley plays without Mitchell.
Those advanced numbers might be exaggerating Conley's impact, but they are telling us something.
You can make a decent case for any of these guys as Davis' replacement. But with Utah holding the best record and (by far) point differential, I would be fine with the league celebrating Conley's tremendous career by awarding him this spot. So I'll do it here too. Booker would be my next choice. As always, there are going to be some tough omissions.