This year's NBA trade deadline boils down to two words: power forwards.
There are teams that need them to compete. There are teams that have players they're not sure they want, and others that won't give them up.
And then there are teams that have power forwards they can't give away.
As the deadline is now officially less than one week away, if you know what will happen with the power forwards, you know what will happen between now and Thursday at 3 p.m. ET.
"These are the types of guys that a lot of us want right now," said a Western Conference general manager. "Last year when Jerami Grant got that big deal [three years, $60 million from the Detroit Pistons] people were surprised, but if he was put on the trade market right now they'd be flooded with offers for him."
The forward frenzy kicked off on Wednesday when two combo forwards who can guard and shoot 3-pointers were on the move: P.J. Tucker to the Milwaukee Bucks and Trevor Ariza to the Miami Heat. But the deadline will likely be defined by a handful of bigger names whose status on the market remains uncertain, with teams like the Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks among those on the hunt.
Take John Collins, for example. The Atlanta Hawks' athletic big man didn't come to terms on a contract extension last December and is now ticketed for restricted free agency. Sources said the Hawks have told inquiring teams that they intend to match contract offers for Collins this summer, but that hasn't stopped the trade proposals from coming.
Even if the Hawks get an offer worth considering, they've been hot since promoting Nate McMillan to head coach and are wary about making major changes. Collins also earns $4.1 million in the final year of his rookie contract, which means trading him for a veteran is more complicated and could require a larger deal. Out of the playoffs since 2017, the Hawks aren't so much in the market for draft picks and prospects.
Fence-sitting and these sorts of stumbling blocks litter the power-forward trade market, making intentions hard to read in the hours leading up to the trade deadline.
Collins and the Hawks' situation is not unlike what's surrounding two other power forwards who could be making headlines next week: the Orlando Magic's Aaron Gordon and the Sacramento Kings' Harrison Barnes.
The Magic have had their season wrecked by injuries, with Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac sidelined for the year and Evan Fournier and Gordon dealing with issues that have kept them out for stretches. As the Magic have sunk in the standings, they've expressed an interest in making players available, sources said, and Gordon has drawn plenty of interest. But it still isn't clear to teams whether the Magic are ultimately motivated to trade Gordon.
The Kings signaled an intention to retrofit last year when they elected not to match an offer sheet to Bogdan Bogdanovic as they made financial room to extend star guard De'Aaron Fox. Barnes plays the desired combo forward role and has a very attractive contract that declines over the next two seasons. If he were made available, Sacramento might land a sizable return.
Teams who have called Sacramento have found a willingness to discuss forwards Nemanja Bjelica and Jabari Parker, sources said, but not so much for Barnes. Under the old system the Kings would have been out of playoff contention and more interested in the future, but this season the last play-in tournament spot isn't so far out of reach.
The Chicago Bulls have drawn interest in versatile forward Thaddeus Young, sources said. But the Bulls, like the Kings, are on the playoff bubble and aren't anxious to be sellers even though they're under .500. They might be willing to make a deal involving another power forward, free agent-to-be Lauri Markkanen, but Young will likely be staying in Chicago.
Meanwhile, there are power forwards who have been available but don't have takers. The Cleveland Cavaliers' Kevin Love, whose season has been derailed by a calf injury, has been available for months. LaMarcus Aldridge, who also plays a lot of center, has been waiting for a trade or buyout from the San Antonio Spurs.
Some of these power forwards could create a significant shift in the playoff race if moved. Or none could change jerseys by the trade deadline. And that is one of the things keeping league executives up late for the next week.