Answering five big questions before the 2021 NBA trade deadline

What will happen at the 2021 NBA trade deadline, and what moves should teams make before March 25?

The action has started to pick up, with the Oklahoma City Thunder making two moves already, including sending Trevor Ariza to the defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat, followed by the Milwaukee Bucks bolstering their roster by getting P.J. Tucker from the Houston Rockets.

ESPN insiders Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton answer the big questions heading toward deadline day, including what other trades, if any, make the most sense for top contenders, who is most likely to be on the move and which players could end up on the buyout market.

MORE: Grades and details for every 2021 trade

What should the Warriors do with the Timberwolves' top-3-protected first-round pick (or any of their players)?

Pelton: Given the strength of the top five of this year's draft, I would only consider trading Minnesota's pick for either an All-Star player in his prime (e.g., Bradley Beal) or a surefire young prospect with multiple years left on his rookie contract -- two things we don't expect to be available at the deadline. Otherwise, I would hang on to the pick.

One technical note: Golden State can't add protection to the Timberwolves' pick to say it only goes to the other team if it lands outside the top five picks; adding protection is only possible with picks that are originally acquired with no conditions.

I would be willing to consider offering the Warriors' own first-round pick for a player who could both help them win now and be part of a future core that also includes James Wiseman and the future Timberwolves pick. The Warriors have technically already traded their 2021 first-round pick to Oklahoma City in the deal that brought back Kelly Oubre Jr., but it has top-20 protection and turns into a second-round pick if it doesn't convey. Golden State could offer up reverse protection on the pick, meaning it would convey to a different team if it lands 1-20 (and the Warriors could add their own top-four protection, in case they miss the playoffs and move up in the lottery).

One player who might fit in such a deal would be Lonzo Ball, whose improved 3-point shooting would make him an ideal fit with Stephen Curry in lineups where either player could handle the ball.

Adding Ball, a restricted free agent this summer, would be costly in terms of Golden State's luxury tax bill in 2021-22 and beyond. But he'd offer insurance in case Klay Thompson is unable to come back from his ACL and Achilles injuries at the same level and be an excellent option in smaller lineups with both Curry and Thompson.

One other factor for the Warriors to weigh is whether it makes sense to trade Oubre to cut this year's tax bill. If Golden State doesn't plan to re-sign Oubre, keeping him on the roster for a season that looks likely to result in a play-in appearance might not be worth the additional cost.

Who is the best player who is most likely to change teams before Thursday's deadline?

Marks: I am going to go with a lesser-known player in the Kings' Nemanja Bjelica. After starting 67 games, averaging 11.5 points on 41.9% from 3 a year ago, Bjelica has played just 22 games this season, including a 14-game stretch in January and February where he didn't see the court. He returned to action in mid-February, and over his past seven games he's shooting 51% from the field and 50% from 3-point range, though still playing just 19 minutes a night.

Bjelica is a rare stretch-4 available in the trade market and has value because teams do not consider him a rental, despite his $7.15 million expiring contract. Because he signed a three-year contract in 2018, any team acquiring the 32-year-old via trade would inherit his Bird rights, allowing it to exceed the cap to re-sign him this summer.

The two teams that make the most sense as a landing spot for Bjelica are Boston and Miami, which did just acquire Trevor Ariza from OKC. Still, the Heat have a $7.6 million trade exception that expires on Monday into which Bjelica's contract would fit. Such a move would put the Heat into the luxury tax, but they have other players (including Avery Bradley, who makes $5.6 million) they could move to get back under the tax line. The Celtics have a $28.6 million trade exception and would remain under the tax if they traded for Bjelica. Boston would also have $22.5 million remaining of the exception to use in the offseason.

Pelton: Bobby leaned heavily on the most likely side of the equation, so I'll highlight the best player with a reasonable chance of getting traded: Kyle Lowry.

Although Lowry has slowed offensively nearing age 35 (his birthday happens to fall on deadline day), he remains capable of contributing both as an on-the-ball playmaker and a spot-up shooter. Lowry's 40% 3-point shooting this season is a hair better than his 38% overall mark since 2015-16. Undersized defensively, Lowry compensates with his ability to read plays and toughness (his 16 drawn charges are tied with Montrezl Harrell for the most in the NBA, according to NBA Advanced Stats tracking).

It's unclear exactly how likely the Raptors are to move Lowry, who is either first or second (behind longtime backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan) on nearly every meaningful franchise leaderboard. If Lowry and Toronto are ready to move on ahead of his unrestricted free agency this summer, however, it is clear that acquiring him is the single biggest move a contender could make to improve its championship odds.

Which players are most likely to not be traded, but be bought out instead?

Marks: Blake Griffin started the buyout period a month early when he agreed to give back $13.3 million of his remaining $56.5 million salary to leave the Detroit Pistons and sign with the Brooklyn Nets. With Griffin off the board, LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Drummond are up next. The size of their contracts (Aldridge at $24 million and Drummond $28.7 million) has presented a challenge for teams trying to put together a trade package for the former All-Stars.

For San Antonio and Cleveland, the question becomes whether it's better to make a trade that involves taking back money that extends into 2021-22, or to agree to a buyout that saves them money now and keeps their future cap sheets clean (but doesn't give them any compensation for losing Aldridge and Drummond). The Cavaliers sent out a 2023 second-round pick (the less favorable of their own and Golden State's) to acquire Drummond last year and would be better off in a buyout than if forced to make a trade. The Spurs have not made an in-season trade since 2014 and have a track record of buying out players (Pau Gasol, DeMarre Carroll).

We can also add Pelicans guard JJ Redick on the buyout list if he is not moved by the deadline. The veteran guard is likely heading toward a second consecutive season of missing the playoffs and will become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason. Redick has played in 110 playoff games but has not played since the All-Star break because of a sore right heel.

Can and will any of the top contenders make a move before Thursday?

Marks: I have eight teams right now on my list of teams that can contend for a championship: the defending champion Lakers, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Miami, the Clippers, Utah and, yes, the Phoenix Suns.

Two of those eight teams -- the Bucks and the Suns -- made deals Wednesday, with Phoenix acquiring reserve forward Torrey Craig from Milwaukee as part of the deal that sent P.J. Tucker to the Bucks. When you look at the other six teams on that list and consider how active they will be at the deadline, it is important to go through a process of elimination. Let's first start with the teams that are likely to sit on the sidelines at the deadline.

The Lakers and Clippers face the same challenge: Their draft cupboard is bare thanks to previous trades, and they're right up against the hard cap with their current rosters.

The Clippers would certainly like to get a player like George Hill ($9.6 million), but sending out Lou Williams ($8 million) does not work because they are only $538,605 below the hard cap.

The Lakers, who are $1.5 million below the hard cap, have a little more flexibility but have a top-heavy roster where most of the players with salaries that could be used to make a trade work are also key contributors on the court. P.J. Tucker would've been a perfect fit in Los Angeles, but the Lakers lacked the pieces to get him, so he's on his way to Milwaukee.

The Jazz have two trade exceptions ($5 million and $3.5 million) but are another team that is hard-capped ($3.6 million below). Plus, this Utah roster is nine-deep, and why change the parts of a team that has the best record in the NBA?

That leaves us with Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Miami. Out of those three teams, Philadelphia has the right components to make a deal. It has the ability to trade two future first-round picks (2021 and 2023), an $8.3 million trade exception and seven players on expiring contracts who earn a total of $30 million.

Although Brooklyn cannot trade a first-round pick (those are going to Houston as part of the James Harden trade), the Nets do have the $11.5 million Spencer Dinwiddie contract, a $5.8 million disabled player exception (as a result of the Dinwiddie season ending injury) and eight second-round picks available. The Brooklyn roster that once appeared to lack depth is now actually 12-deep when you factor in the bench of Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown Jr., Jeff Green, Landry Shamet, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Tyler Johnson and Nic Claxton. Could they use another big? Of course. Players like Khem Birch and JaVale McGee fit into their disabled player exception, but Brooklyn might be better off waiting until the buyout market, when the cost is nothing except for additional money toward the luxury tax.

The Heat acquired Trevor Ariza in a trade for Meyers Leonard, and despite the inability to trade a first-round pick, they do have four players (Goran Dragic, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley) who earn more than $5 million and are either expiring or have a team option for next year. One obstacle that Miami does face is a lack of second-round picks to add in a deal. After trading their 2027 second to Oklahoma City in the Ariza deal, the Heat have only the less favorable of 2022 Denver or Philadelphia and their own 2024 second (31-50).

Which team is best positioned to improve its playoff chances with a trade?

Pelton: I guess I'd say the New York Knicks, whose intriguing position entering the deadline with more cap space than any other team was discussed by Bobby and I earlier this week.

In part, the Knicks have more room to improve than other teams with similar records but better playoff odds thanks to their rosters and schedules. For example, simulations using ESPN's Basketball Power Index already give the Heat a 99.5% chance of making the playoffs, so Miami's addition of Trevor Ariza is more about making a deeper run than simply getting to the postseason.

A number of other teams in the play-in mix may see players returning from injuries rather than trades as their way to improve. That applies to the Atlanta Hawks, who have been hit hard by a series of injuries, the Indiana Pacers (who already got Caris LeVert back and will hopefully return T.J. Warren at some point), the Memphis Grizzlies (who've returned Justise Winslow, with Jaren Jackson Jr. due back in the second half) and the Portland Trail Blazers (who saw CJ McCollum make his return Tuesday night and are getting closer to having Jusuf Nurkic).

Portland could still be a candidate to add via trade. I'd also keep an eye on whether the Charlotte Hornets acquire another veteran for their unexpected playoff push led by LaMelo Ball.