2021 NBA trade deadline: The blueprint for the New York Knicks to be winners

The New York Knicks find themselves in an interesting spot ahead of the 2021 trade deadline. They have more cap space ($15.7 million) than any other team, giving them the ability to add substantial salary in a trade without needing to send any back in return. Besides them, the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are the two teams in a similar position thanks to their large trade exceptions.

Entering the season, it looked like New York could use cap space to stockpile additional draft picks in exchange for taking on bad contracts. But with Tom Thibodeau's squad currently seventh in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks now a team that could use the deadline to boost their chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Should New York be approaching the deadline as an opportunity to upgrade the roster for the next two months? Or is it better for the Knicks to stick to a long-term plan of building around All-Star Julius Randle, second-year wing RJ Barrett, center Mitchell Robinson and promising rookie Immanuel Quickley?

ESPN NBA analysts Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton debate how New York should approach the trade deadline.

What's the value of the Knicks' cap space?

Bobby: The Knicks are sitting in the pole position at the deadline with their cap space. How they utilize that $15.7 million will depend if they want to acquire players, trade away players, or a combination of both.

New York can act as a third team in a trade to take back unwanted salary, something only teams with large trade exceptions (Oklahoma City for example) could otherwise do. For example, any team interested in Cleveland Cavaliers center Andre Drummond, and his $28.7 million salary, would likely have to send out three to four players in order to make the money work. Because of roster restrictions (maximum of 15 players), Cleveland would recruit New York as a third team to take back one or two contracts, also throwing in draft picks or perhaps a player who fits New York's timeline of development.

The Knicks could also take back a contract and a draft pick if a team is looking to clear out a roster spot to sign a player who was bought out. A team like Philadelphia has 15 players under contract and could trade Terrance Ferguson along with a second-round pick to New York to open a roster spot. The Knicks, however, also have 15 players under contract and would need to eat the salary of a player like Austin Rivers to make that work.

Previous trade deadlines have seen luxury-tax teams trade away players for the primary purpose of saving money. The Warriors could trade the $14.37 million contract of Kelly Oubre Jr. and save close to $70 million toward the tax -- though that number will likely be reduced after the league calculates the postpandemic hit to Basketball Related Income for this season.

One thing to keep in mind is that this is not a use-or-lose it scenario for New York. Although cap space does not roll over to the 2021-22 season, the Knicks are allowed to use their room up until the start of the new 2021-2022 league year, likely to start in early August.

Kevin, with New York is currently sitting just outside the top six, isn't it important that this team stays in accumulation mode?

Projecting the Knicks' finish

Kevin: As well as the Knicks have played so far this season, the odds are still against a deep playoff run. In terms of point differential, New York ranks fifth of the eight teams separated by four games in the Eastern Conference standings from fourth through 11th. The Knicks also have the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in the NBA according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI). As a result, projections based on BPI still give New York just a 17.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. (FiveThirtyEight's model is a bit more optimistic, giving the Knicks a 30% chance.)

Because the East is so wide open and even a trip to the play-in tournament would be a high point for the franchise in the post-Carmelo Anthony era, I think it's reasonable for New York to be in acquiring mode. But with a bench that's already proved to be surprisingly deep, I'd rather use the cap space to take on a bad contract rather than try to pursue a short-term upgrade along the lines of New Orleans Pelicans guard JJ Redick.

Is there a way for the Knicks to achieve both goals, whether by splitting up their cap space or taking on a long-term contract?

Options for the Knicks

Bobby: As I mentioned above, if Philadelphia is looking to open up a roster spot, New York should be in the front of the line for a player like Terrance Ferguson or Vincent Poirier, both of whom will be restricted free agents this summer. The same applies if Dallas is looking to create additional cap flexibility in 2021-22 by moving Dwight Powell, who is due $11.1 million in 2021-22 and $11.1 million in 2022-23. If the Knicks could acquire multiple second-round picks or even have the Mavericks eliminate the pick protection (top 10) for the first they owe New York in 2023, it would be worth the reduction in cap space ($45 to $34 million in 2021-22). The 2021 free-agent class is average at best and New York would be smart to follow the same blueprint from this past November (one-year free-agent contracts) and punt on any long-term acquisitions.

The Knicks do not currently have a roster spot open, but could easily waive Ignas Brazdeikis (team option for 2021-22, has played 7 minutes this season) or Austin Rivers (non-guaranteed contract in 2021-22 and 2022-23, hasn't played since Feb. 13) to create space if they want to take back a contract that a team is looking to get rid of.

Kevin, where would you draw the line in the sand when it comes to the availability of the Knicks' five expiring contracts (Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock) and their two former lottery picks (Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina)? I know you would go in the direction of using cap space to take back bad contracts but what about collecting additional picks for their pending free agents?

Kevin: I think I'm a bit more willing than you to encourage New York to go for a playoff spot this year. In the long run, it would probably be wise to retrade Rose for value and cash in on their impending free agents. But this is the most exciting time to be a Knicks fan in years, so even if I want people to be realistic about the possibility of the team falling in the standings, that seems like too much of a buzzkill.

Payton would be an exception to that rule. If New York can get anything for him, it would make sense to move on. The Knicks have gone 4-1 during the five games Payton has missed recently despite Rose being out of the lineup for the last two (including a 26-point loss at San Antonio).

I'd also be ready to move Knox and Ntilikina if other teams value them more like their draft positions than their current spots outside New York's full-strength rotation. In his fourth season, Ntilikina still hasn't showed the offensive chops to project as more than a fourth guard. And while Knox's 40% 3-point shooting in a limited sample (75 attempts) is encouraging, the rest of his game has stagnated.

Let's wrap this up with a look ahead to this summer. Bobby, you mentioned that the Knicks project to have $45 million in cap space in a weak market. How should they think about using that besides to take back long-term contracts before the deadline?

Knicks' summer of 2021 and beyond

Bobby: The days of New York ranking in the bottom four of future power rankings seem to be over. The Knicks are well-stocked heading into the offseason with a projected $45 million in room, two first-round picks (their own and the Mavericks' pick) and a second from Detroit (which is equal to a late first) to add to their foundation of Barrett and Randle.

Unfortunately, the top unrestricted free agents (LeBron James, Paul George, Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo) signed extensions before the start of the season. That leaves New York with a pool of players ranging from Kyle Lowry, Dennis Schroder, Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, Evan Fournier and restricted free agent Lonzo Ball.

The first order of business is to decide what to do with the $1.8 million team option of Mitchell Robinson. If they exercise the option, Robinson will become an unrestricted free agent in 2022, so to protect themselves long term, the smart thing is to decline the option and give Robinson a qualifying offer. That would make him a restricted free agent, and because of his low $2.1 million cap hold, New York can use cap space first and then circle back to sign him.

They also have a decision to offer Randle up to a four-year, $106 million extension. With Randle playing like an All-Star, I am inclined to believe the forward will pass on that type of number and wait until he is a free agent in 2022 to cash in.

I'd prefer to stay with the short-term plan: sign their own free agents (Burks, Noel and Bullock) to a two-year contract with a team option in year two, or see if a player like Lowry would bite on a one-year, $25 million contract. Doug McDermott intrigues me with a high salary in the first year but flexibility in year two.

I know the safe approach this offseason is not appealing but if New York can play the waiting game, it will be in position to land two max-type free agents in 2022 or take advantage when the next disgruntled All-Star wants out. The 2022 free-agent class could consist of All-Stars Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Zach LaVine. Unlike the offseason of 2019 when they missed out on Durant and Irving, there is a strong foundation in place (similar to where Brooklyn was back then) to attract franchise players.

Kevin, what are your thoughts on what direction New York goes this offseason?

Kevin: We're in lockstep about what the Knicks should do. Even if the class of 2022 free agents dries up along the lines of what we've seen with this year's free agency, once highly anticipated, flexibility will be worth maintaining as long as New York has multiple young players on value rookie contracts. If nothing else, short-term deals will be easier to include as matching salary should a star become available via trade.

Of course, Knicks' history is littered with examples of the team overreacting to a taste of success and abandoning long-term plans. We'll have a better idea by March 25 of whether new team president Leon Rose can hold the line and see through a plan that has been executed well so far.