And we're back. The first second-half edition of 10 things features the NBA's All-Star innovations, Donovan Mitchell rounding out his game and some pros and cons of Dwight Howard with the Philadelphia 76ers.
1. The NBA's open mind on All-Star
The NBA gets clowned for gimmicky innovations, even if some live only in the G League. The proposed midseason tournament and the now-dormant push to reseed the conference finals drew lots of eye-rolling.
But credit the league for reinventing All-Star weekend. Having captains pick teams has been a hit. It conjured a television event -- the draft -- that spits out classic NBA melodrama, with this season's snubbing of the Utah Jazz ("no slander"!) inspiring both good-natured humor and vitriolic small-market martyrdom.
It pits teammates against each other. How cool was it seeing Jayson Tatum slap the floor and get into a stance when he found himself guarding Boston Celtics teammate Jaylen Brown?
The Elam Ending is a no-brainer. This edition didn't carry the drama of last season, and skeptics have argued the target score doesn't liven up blowouts. Blowouts are boring regardless. They might have a better chance of turning exciting under an Elam Ending.
Having participants in the Mountain Dew Sprite Kia Poulan Weed Eater 3-Point Contest presented by Taco Bell pick money-ball racks has added intrigue. If someone prefers the corners, should he pick the first rack or the last -- when he might be tired? Why do some shooters pick wing 3s?
The longer-distance "Dew Zone" shot reflects the evolving skills of the best marksmen. If anything, the league should add another even longer shot above the top of the arc -- maybe a half-court shot worth five or 10 points.
I liked judges picking a dunk contest winner instead of scoring final dunks. I might even put the same either-or poll to fans online, and give them 50% voting power.
2. Milwaukee using the Brook Lopez switch
The Milwaukee Bucks don't inspire as much confidence as they probably should at 23-14 with the league's No. 2 offense and point differential. They have piled up blowouts, but also suffered a few and lost to bad teams. They feel a little ... strange. Off, maybe.
Some of that is baked into their design. The Bucks became top-heavy after the Jrue Holiday trade, and so it shouldn't have been a surprise they struggled when one of their top players -- Holiday -- missed 10 games. They are 5-5 without Holiday, and 18-9 with him.
They are experimenting on defense in hopes of (finally) being able to diversify against postseason opponents. They are dipping their toes into switching! Their execution has been predictably haphazard, one reason the Bucks have slipped to 11th in points allowed per possession after topping the league last season.
On some nights, they barely switch -- sticking with their bedrock, drop-back scheme. Other nights, they switch in bunches -- even against non-threatening two-man games that require no switchery. When teams string together two or three screening actions, the switchier Bucks sometimes devolve into confusion.
What you really want is targeted switching. When the Miami Heat in the playoffs ran off-ball actions involving Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro, that screamed for a switch. Maybe switching everything now -- with the accompanying hiccups -- is the price for being able to switch the right stuff cleanly in June?
This kind of switch is encouraging:
The Nets (New Jersey and Brooklyn) did this with Lopez so often that I gave it the shorthand "Bropez switch" in my notes when more teams adopted it. The idea is basic: If you see a pick-and-roll coming, yank your slow big out in favor of a more switchable defender -- and find a hiding place for him (Terance Mann here).
It also keeps Lopez in rebounding position. One reason the Bucks don't love switching Lopez onto ball handlers -- aside from the massive speed disadvantage he faces -- is that it leaves them vulnerable on the glass. This solves both problems.
Of course, opponents have counters. The best playoff teams won't always offer a limited role player as Lopez's safe haven.
That raises another question: What is Milwaukee's closing lineup beyond Holiday, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Khris Middleton? Donte DiVincenzo seems a lock. Who's the fifth wheel?
3. Dwight Howard dribbling
Howard has done his job for the Philadelphia 76ers. He is one of the league's nastiest physical players, all sharp elbows and bone-rattling picks. He has rebounded 17.8% of Philadelphia's misses, the league's second-highest rate (trailing only Clint Capela of the Atlanta Hawks) -- and a mark only seven players have hit in any full season, per Basketball-Reference.
Howard has drawn tons of fouls, helping keep Philadelphia's free throw rate above league average when Joel Embiid rests. (Philly last season was entirely dependent on Embiid for free throws.) Opponents have hit only 47.9% of shots around the rim with Howard nearby, fourth lowest among rotation players -- behind only Jakob Poeltl, Jaden McDaniels and Myles Turner, per NBA.com.
Lineups featuring Tobias Harris, Howard, and three reserves have outscored opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions thanks largely to stingy defense, per NBA.com.
The one blot on Howard's 2020-21 resume: a sky-high, inexcusable-for-a-reserve turnover rate. Howard has coughed the ball up on 24.6% of possessions he has finished, third worst in the league -- ahead of only DeAndre Jordan and Draymond Green. He's puking up 3.8 turnovers per 36 minutes.
A lot of those are illegal screens -- dead-ball turnovers that don't compromise Philadelphia's defense. But Howard occasionally tries to dribble and even initiate offense, and those adventures end badly:
Howard has dialed back his derring-do in the past month. When the stakes are high, the Sixers cannot afford low-usage players gagging away possessions.
4. Sacramento's perimeter defense
The order of blame for awful defense -- and the Sacramento Kings are dead last by a mile -- tends to go coaching, then big men, and then everyone else. Luke Walton and his staff have cycled through lots of attempted fixes, but nothing has stuck.
Richaun Holmes, Sacto's starting center, is decent, but Marvin Bagley III has been bad -- ill-equipped to guard stretch power forwards when he mans that position, unable to protect the basket when the Kings slide him to center. Opponents have hit 72% attempts at the rim with Bagley nearby, the second-highest percentage allowed among rotation bigs, per NBA.com. Ouch.
But the chain of mistakes often starts at the point of attack. Sacramento's guards smack into screens, exhale at the wrong moments, and commit blunders that don't make any sense. Like, what is this from Buddy Hield?
Does he expect Bagley to switch? Does he realize in the chaotic aftermath of an offensive rebound that Bagley is guarding the screener? (From afar, communication seems a constant problem.)
De'Aaron Fox has the speed and tools to grow into a good defender, and he cares about winning. But he has some iffy tendencies -- including an upright stance:
The Kings are going nowhere until they craft some semblance of an identity on defense. That is on everyone.
5. Michael Porter Jr.'s defense, maybe?
Very quietly, the Denver Nuggets got rolling before the All-Star break, winning four straight -- including a shellacking of the Bucks -- despite missing Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, and JaMychal Green. Jamal Murray found his groove. Zeke Nnaji emerged as a potential rotation player -- a sweet-shooting big capable of defending multiple positions.
Denver is fifth in offensive efficiency, 15th in defense, and fifth in scoring margin -- a hair ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Nuggets get healthy, they seem poised to invade the race for seeds Nos. 2-4 in the West. Murray and Nikola Jokic have proven they can counter any defense in the postseason.
Porter is still a minus on defense, but he's making fewer catastrophic mistakes that implode Denver's scheme. He's showing better understanding of rotations -- shifting around the perimeter, eyes darting between ball and man. He has even snared some pretty high-level steals and deflections:
That doesn't leap off the screen, but Porter executes basic weakside responsibilities. He zones up between Rui Hachimura and Garrison Mathews as Murray pounces on Moritz Wagner. Porter doesn't fall for Wagner's lookaway, stays between the Wiz shooters, and intercepts Wagner's pass.
The Nuggets don't need Porter to be great or even good on defense. He's so explosive on offense, they just need him to be average. He's not there, but the trend line is pointing the right way.
Porter has looked more comfortable playing power forward with Millsap and Green injured. The Nuggets feared slotting Porter there almost full-time might cripple their defense. They face interesting decisions as Millsap and Green return, and the trade deadline approaches.
Related: I was among those arguing before the season Denver would not miss Jerami Grant as much as some thought -- at least in the regular season. On a superficial level, that might prove correct despite Grant's breakout for the Detroit Pistons; Denver may finish with an equivalent seed to last season and a fatter point differential.
But the Nuggets are paying Green and Millsap $17.2 million combined after failing to convince Grant to stay for $20 million -- and declining to outbid Detroit's offer for Grant. Grant's new contract is the longest of the three, which surely factored into Denver's calculus; Porter is eligible for an extension after this season, and I'd be shocked if his agents don't open with a "max or nothing" stance. (This is why Denver trading for long-term salary is tricky.)
But Millsap and Green move more like centers than tweener forwards. (Their ability to function as Jokic's backup -- something Grant isn't big enough to do -- also likely played a role in Denver's decision-making once Mason Plumlee bolted.) Grant and Porter could have started together and toggled between forward spots -- allowing the Nuggets to play Porter as a stretch four on offense without worrying about defense. Grant's departure leaves Denver without any credible defenders for apex predator wings.
It's hard to really fault the Nuggets here. Almost everyone agreed at the time Detroit had overpaid -- maybe badly -- for Grant. Maybe Grant was always going to leave for a larger role. In the big picture, the Nuggets will be fine if Porter hits his ceiling. But the Porter-Grant forward tandem made a lot of structural sense.
6. Donovan Mitchell, in motion
An offense heavy on ball movement really takes off when its superstars buy into that style. Mitchell does not just stand around when someone else has the ball.
He spots Jimmy Butler overplaying the passing lane, and zips backdoor. That draws Robinson away from Bojan Bogdanovic in the corner. Splash. The Utah Jazz broadcast should talk as much about cut assists as they do screen assists.
Mitchell has also learned the tactic of running into a catch, a San Antonio Spurs thing Utah coach Quin Snyder has tried to instill in all Jazz men. It's an easy way to get a head start:
Stacked with ball handlers, Utah needed Mitchell to tap into this part of his game. The more a star cuts, the more attention he draws away from the ball -- and the easier it gets for the other four guys.
Mitchell has taken a step as a passer, too. He's not a great defender, but he's a willing one. (Watch his ball denial around the arc.)
He's still a scorer at heart. The Jazz will lean harder on his one-on-one game against postseason defenses that switch more to clog the gears of Utah's beautiful machine. The kind of dominance he showed in last season's playoffs distinguishes the Jazz from the 60-win Atlanta Hawks of 2014-15 -- another team that tried to overcome star power with five-man connectivity.
Mitchell is rounding out his game in ways that make the Utah machine harder to disrupt. The Jazz will not have the best player in any series against the Lakers, Clippers, or Nuggets. The Clippers and Lakers probably have the two best players in those matchups. For the Jazz to win with ball movement, they have to bring that style to its apex.
7. Jeff Teague owns this steal
Teague was a bust in Boston until a five-game flurry before the All-Star break in which he scored 53 points on 17-of-28 shooting. The Celtics been solid in limited minutes with Teague on the floor, and they need all the creative juice Brad Stevens can squeeze from this roster until their four best players -- Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Tatum, Brown -- are humming.
Teague is about as prosaic as a one-time All-Star gets, with one exception: He executes perfect pick-pocket steals off live dribbles. They are works of art. I first highlighted this in 2017, when Teague was in Minnesota:
These rips somehow remind me of knights jousting. Teague and his victim are rushing toward each other when Teague crouches, plucks the ball, and transitions into a steady live dribble. The pristine nature of these snatches is what makes them special. There is no mess -- no awkwardness. Teague doesn't bump into his opponent, or lose his balance. The ball doesn't squirt sideways, generating some stumbling scrum. Teague just takes it and continues the other way. It is almost rude in its rote serenity.
He's still doing it:
On the Celtics broadcast, Brian Scalabrine exclaimed, "Cole Anthony kept on dribbling air!" And that's it: These Teague steals are so sudden, the ball handler keeps moving forward like an out-on-his-feet fighter throwing air punches.
Decades from now, I will (maybe weirdly?) still remember these steals.
8. The state of Rudy Gay's one-on-one game
With the LaMarcus Aldridge news out, Gay becomes the next Spurs veteran to watch at the trade deadline.
Gay is a plug-and-play type: a shooting power forward who might buy you a few rickety minutes at small forward. He has transitioned well into a low-usage bench role.
But part of his value still lies in going one-on-one late in the clock and against mismatches, and his efficiency in those situations has cratered this season. The Spurs have scored 0.756 points per possession when Gay shoots out of an isolation, or passes to a teammate who fires -- 148th out of 167 players who have recorded at least 25 isos, per Second Spectrum.
This isn't just Gay missing a bunch of long 2s. He has hit 42% of midrangers -- around his career average, per Cleaning The Glass.
Gay looks like he has lost a bit of athleticism and oomph. He can't gain separation or bulldoze smaller defenders as easily. He's getting to the line at a career-low rate.
(A minute earlier, Gay missed a similar fadeaway over Tim Hardaway Jr. -- someone he should overpower.)
Defenses have sniffed this out. They aren't sending as much help toward Gay. He has barely recorded any assists out of isolations or post-ups, per Second Spectrum. He has launched field-goals on 82% of his isos -- the 10th-highest rate in that 167-player group.
Gay can still help the right contender. He has hit 37% from deep. He's a smart defender. Maybe his one-on-one game will perk up. But as we have seen with Danilo Gallinari in Atlanta (until the past few games), stretch-4s who lose some effectiveness exploiting mismatches can be liabilities on the wrong night.
9. Kenrich Williams, more than hustle
With the New Orleans Pelicans, Williams looked like a hustle rebounder who couldn't do enough with the ball -- anything, really -- to last in the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder grabbed him as a bit player in the Holiday four-team mega-deal, and have found something much more interesting.
Due to injuries and general roster weirdness, the Thunder have shoehorned Williams into a wing role -- sometimes even using him as a nominal shooting guard. Turns out he can do stuff with the ball! His time of possession is way up, and he's averaging almost two dribbles per touch -- up from 0.84 last season, per NBA.com
He has a bit of a mean streak, and a patient bully-ball game against smaller guys:
Williams has already surpassed his assist total from last season. He can grab-and-go in transition, and has a nice drive-and-dish feel:
He's also shooting 55%, and 21-of-51 (41%) on 3s -- heady territory, considering Williams hit 37% overall over two seasons in New Orleans.
He defends hard, and cleans the glass. If he makes enough 3s, Williams will have a role in the NBA -- even if it's just as a deep bench guy coaches trust to come in and defend.
10. Little guy full-body pump fakes
There is a surprising amount of individual expression in someone's pump fake. They come in all varieties. Dwyane Wade and DeMar DeRozan are the old-school midrange killers -- foul-drawing machines whose fakes are indistinguishable from their normal windups. Chandler Parsons rose to his tippy-toes. Jonas Valanciunas's ultra-slow-motion fake dupes people even though it all but declares Valanciunas' reluctance to shoot.
But I'm a sucker for a little guy full-body heave. Kyle Lowry is one of the all-time masters. His pump-fake radiates from his feet, through his torso, and up to his head. He raises the ball fast, faking an urgency that fools defenders:
That is understated by Lowry standards, but Butler goes flying anyway.
A new (at least in the NBA) entry: the Denver Nuggets' delightful Facundo Campazzo.
You could build a fitness workout empire around that pump fake. Campazzo has been as fun as advertised -- an irritant unafraid of larger humans, and one of the most unpredictable and stylish passers alive. His no-lookers trick almost everyone, and he explores passing lanes -- including some that take the ball between pairs of legs -- most don't see or dare.
The Nuggets have outscored opponents by 4.4 possessions with Campazzo on the floor. He has meshed well with Monte Morris in double-point-guard bench units, and discovered instant chemistry with Jokic.