What kind of trade could the San Antonio Spurs make involving LaMarcus Aldridge?
Before Wednesday's game against the Dallas Mavericks to start the second half of the season, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters that Aldridge would be away from the team by mutual agreement as they work to find him a new home. Per my ESPN colleague Adrian Wojnarowski, San Antonio is optimistic a trade can be found rather than buying out the remaining $8.5 million left on Aldridge's contract as of the March 25 deadline.
Where might Aldridge be a fit? And what matching salary could those teams send the Spurs for Aldridge? Let's take a look.
Aldridge relinquished starting role
After returning from a three-week absence due to hip flexor soreness last month, Aldridge found himself in the unusual position of coming off the bench for the first time since his rookie campaign with the Portland Trail Blazers 14 years ago.
Simply, San Antonio has been better with the younger Jakob Poeltl in the middle. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Spurs have outscored opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions with Poeltl on the court as compared to a minus-5.6 net rating with Aldridge, who has played exclusively at center this season. Granting that's partially a function of the strong San Antonio second unit, lineups featuring Poeltl with the team's other starters have performed much better than similar lineups with Aldridge.
Individually, Aldridge hasn't been as effective as he was during a solid 2019-20 campaign. After making a career-high 61 3-pointers at a 39% clip last season, Aldridge hasn't been quite as accurate (36%) this season while taking more than 30% of his shots beyond the arc, which has decreased his opportunities inside.
Just 11% of Aldridge's shots have come within three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, down to nearly half of last year's 20% mark. As a result, Aldridge's true shooting percentage (TS%) has dipped to .545 after three consecutive seasons north of .570. Given the average center has posted a .603 TS% this year, Aldridge no longer measures up.
Age is surely a factor. Aldridge is 35 and recently surpassed 35,000 career minutes, putting him sixth among active players. So any team acquiring him at this point will have to hope Aldridge can be more effective in a smaller role, along the lines of three players ahead of him who have transitioned to coming off the bench: Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard and Andre Iguodala.
Possible trade candidates
As we've seen time and again this year, including most recently with Blake Griffin, the possibility of trading Aldridge is complicated by his $24 million expiring contract. Aside from a handful of teams that have trade exceptions big enough to fit Aldridge's salary (the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder) or cap space (the Charlotte Hornets and New York Knicks, who would still need to send back salary in return), everyone else must send out at least $19 million in salary to make a legal trade. The Spurs' situation is further complicated by the fact that they likely won't add much salary, as they stand barely $1 million below the luxury-tax line.
San Antonio could open up the pool of interested teams by using Aldridge's expiring contract to take back long-term salary from teams seeking more flexibility. However, the Spurs would have to weigh that against the cap space they stand to have next summer. If they renounce the rights to their other free agents, including DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio could get nearly $50 million under the cap.
Assuming the Spurs want to maintain that cap space, their options are more limited. Aldridge could make sense for the Toronto Raptors if they end up trading veteran point guard Kyle Lowry for players with expiring contracts who don't fit the team's plans. Aldridge would be a helpful addition to Toronto's thin center rotation, allowing them to put five outside shooters on the court more frequently. But a Lowry deal is unlikely to materialize until nearer the deadline.
The Miami Heat are another trade possibility. Team president Pat Riley was enough of an Aldridge fan that Riley tried to recruit him as a free agent in the summer of 2015, when Aldridge signed in San Antonio, despite the fact that Miami didn't have the cap space to sign him to a max deal.
Because the Heat signed players to one-year deals with team options to preserve their 2021 cap space for a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo before he signed his extension with the Milwaukee Bucks, they have ample expiring salary to send back. The Heat could build a package around Kelly Olynyk, who has started 30 games this season alongside Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt, if they view Aldridge as an upgrade. The big question is whether Miami might prefer to save those expiring contracts for a more capable contributor than Aldridge.
While Boston could acquire Aldridge without sending back any salary in return, I don't think that's a likely outcome. The Celtics surely want to add a long-term piece to their core with their trade exception. That doesn't describe Aldridge, who would also add to a crowd in the frontcourt with Daniel Theis, Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams all in the mix at center.
Waiting on a buyout
Aldridge will surely have plenty of options if San Antonio is unable to trade him and agrees to a buyout. My favorite fit for Aldridge would probably be the Philadelphia 76ers, with whom he could play a role similar to the one Al Horford played coming off the bench last season. As ineffective as Horford's pairing with Joel Embiid was, he fit perfectly with Ben Simmons as a stretch 5 in smaller, faster lineups. Because Dwight Howard is not an outside shooting threat, he hasn't been nearly as effective in combination with Simmons. That would make Aldridge an upgrade for the top team in the East standings.
Of course, Aldridge might see more upside on a team with a less dominant starting center than Embiid. It's entirely possible he could be the Los Angeles Lakers' best option to finish games at center given Montrezl Harrell's defensive limitations and how little stress Marc Gasol has put on opposing offenses as a scorer this season. Even after signing Griffin earlier this week, the Brooklyn Nets would surely be in the mix; Aldridge's ability to stretch the court fits well in Brooklyn, though I'm not sure he still has the footspeed for the Nets' switch-heavy defense.
The most poetic possibility is a return to Portland, where Aldridge began his career and grew into an All-Star. Unfortunately, the timing might not match up. The Blazers badly could have used Aldridge over the past two months, when they've been without centers Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. Since Nurkic was sidelined, Portland has been outscored by 9.7 points per 100 possessions with fill-in center Enes Kanter on the bench. But Nurkic is due back shortly after the All-Star break, giving the Blazers a capable 1-2 punch in the middle.
If he becomes a free agent, Aldridge will have an interesting decision to make. We'll see whether that happens or if San Antonio can get value for him via trade instead.