Can Blake Griffin still help an NBA contender?
My ESPN colleague Adrian Wojnarowski reported Sunday that Griffin has agreed to a deal with the Brooklyn Nets after taking a contract buyout with the Detroit Pistons on Friday.
The version of Griffin we saw during 20 games with the Pistons this season didn't look like a particularly helpful player. Is there reason to hope that Griffin can be more effective as a role player on a better team? Let's take a look.
Rapid physical decline
As recently as two seasons ago, Griffin was the driving force as Detroit reached the playoffs. He earned All-NBA third-team honors by averaging a career-high 25.3 points per 36 minutes with a .581 true shooting percentage, the second best of his career. Certainly, the Griffin we saw with the Pistons was different from the stunning force of his early years with the LA Clippers. Dunks accounted for just 3.1% of his field goal attempts in 2018-19, per Basketball-Reference.com, while he attempted 39% of his shots from beyond the 3-point line -- a career high at the time.
Since undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in April 2019 to deal with soreness in the knee that sidelined him for part of the team's playoff sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks, Griffin hasn't been the same player. He was ineffective in 18 games during the 2019-20 campaign before undergoing a second knee surgery in January 2020 that ultimately ended his season.
After positive whispers about Griffin's play during offseason workouts, there was optimism he might be closer to full strength following an extended layoff. That hope failed to materialize. While Griffin was marginally better than in 2019-20, his 43% accuracy on 2-point attempts would be a new career low despite his transition to a smaller role. (Griffin's usage rate dropped from finishing 28.5% of Detroit's plays in 2019-20 to 19.4% this season, before he was shut down.)
It's not just that Griffin is no longer the high flyer he once was. He no longer displays functional athleticism on the court relative to the average NBA player. As has been much noted, Griffin has yet to successfully dunk this season. Per analysis of data from Basketball-Reference.com, Griffin is the only player taller than 6-foot-7 to attempt more than 150 shots this season without a single dunk.
Worse yet, Griffin's injuries seem to have taken a toll on the skill that helped him compensate for declining athleticism during the 2018-19 season. Back then, Griffin had made his outside shooting a plus, as he made 3s at a slightly above-average clip (36%) while attempting 7.2 per 36 minutes. Over the past two seasons, Griffin has continued to attempt 7-plus 3s per 36 minutes but has made just 28% of them, the third-lowest percentage among players with at least 200 3-point attempts in that span, according to Stathead.com.
As a result of that inaccurate shooting from the outside and inability to finish inside, Griffin's play so far this season rated 0.5 wins worse than replacement level by my WARP metric. Although the Pistons weren't quite as ineffective with Griffin on the court as those individual statistics would imply -- they've basically been the same with or without him, suggesting he at least wasn't a drag on the team's lottery-level performance -- that raises the possibility that a contender like the Nets might be better off using a roster spot on a call-up from the G League.
Can a different role help Griffin?
My colleague Zach Lowe expressed some optimism about Griffin's chances of helping a contender during a recent episode of the Lowe Post with guest Chris Herring, noting that Griffin could have more of a relative athletic advantage playing as a backup center. That's an expected role for Griffin with Brooklyn, per Wojnarowski's report.
We haven't seen much of Griffin at center this season with Detroit. My analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats suggests he has played just 46 minutes in the middle, or 7% of his total playing time. The shooting the Nets will put around Griffin should give him more room to operate in the same way his former Pistons teammate Bruce Brown has remade himself as a high-percentage finisher with Brooklyn.
It also would be interesting to see Griffin as a center running inverted pick-and-rolls in which perimeter players such as Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris screen for him. Griffin's pick-and-roll production as a ball handler remains reasonably strong (he ranks in the top quartile of pick-and-roll ball handlers in terms of points per possession, according to Second Spectrum tracking) because he is a good passer and retains enough post-up ability to be dangerous when opponents switch a smaller defender on him.
Still, I'm skeptical. Even by the low standards of the Nets' frontcourt, Griffin no longer offers any rim protection. He blocked just two shots in 626 minutes in Detroit this season. And opponents made 71% of their attempts inside 5 feet with Griffin as the closest defender, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, putting him in the bottom quartile of the 232 players who have defended at least 50 such shots.
The switching-heavy defense Brooklyn has employed frequently since acquiring James Harden might not be much more friendly to the current version of Griffin. According to Second Spectrum tracking, opponents have averaged 1.44 points per play on 28 pick-and-rolls in which Griffin switches and the action results directly in a shot attempt, shooting foul or turnover -- 10th worst among players with at least 20 such plays.
It's possible Griffin will be revitalized to some extent by the opportunity to join a contending team. Even Detroit's playoff season with Griffin saw the team finish just 41-41, so Griffin hasn't been on one of the NBA's top teams since Chris Paul departed the Clippers in the summer of 2017. A smaller role might help Griffin get back a little more lift, helping him at least be a threat as a spot-up 3-point shooter like we saw in 2018-19.
Nonetheless, I'm skeptical Griffin will truly help the Nets. Sadly, his injuries might prevent him from aging from a star into a quality role player.