Let's roll with another round of 10 things before the All-Star break, featuring a fully realized version of Joel Embiid, Bradley Beal embracing his Melo-mode and some LaMelo Ball brilliance.
1. Joel Embiid and the little things
The most important story for the Philadelphia 76ers this season has been the massive improvement in Joel Embiid's midrange shot, and the variety of ways he gets to it.
Embiid has hit 53% on long 2s. He is more comfortable facing up from the top of the key, where it's harder for defenses to double. That gives Philadelphia another crunch-time answer, and it's the main weapon fueling Embiid's case to be the first big-man MVP since Dirk Nowitzki in 2006-07 -- and the first true center to win it in two decades.
But Embiid also seems more dialed in on the little things.
He clogs this drive, before Philly concedes an open triple to Embiid's man -- Domantas Sabonis. Most centers would park under the rim, boxing out air, assuming the rebound will fall to them. Instead, Embiid finds someone -- Myles Turner -- to take out.
Embiid is more diligent using one of his most obvious physical gifts: the length of his arms.
Good luck to any team involving the Ben Simmons-Embiid duo in a pick-and-roll. All you see are mean faces and long limbs.
(It should be noted this isn't quite showing up in public stats. Embiid's deflections haven't budged. His boxouts are down, though boxouts have dropped so severely league-wide -- according to the NBA's official page -- I'm wary of them. Embiid is about as active on the glass as last season, per Second Spectrum tracking data, and the Sixers allow fewer offensive rebounds when he's on the floor.)
I've seen less lead-footed standing -- including on offense, where Embiid is more active searching out instant pass-and-screen reads:
That is Draymond Green-ish: Sag too far off Embiid, and he might dart into a pick that catapults one Philly shooter into open space.
Have Embiid and Nikola Jokic put some distance between themselves and LeBron James (and the rest of the field) in the MVP race during the Los Angeles Lakers' recent cold stretch without Anthony Davis? Depends on the voter. LeBron has sustained his usual excellence; the Lakers are plus-20 with LeBron on the floor over nine consecutive games without Davis (and partly without Dennis Schroder), and minus-31 when he rests.
Embiid has been dynamite in crunch time for one of the league's best clutch teams. The small hole in his case: 98 assists and 96 turnovers. He is not as steady an all-court presence on offense as Jokic and James. In back-to-back games against the Toronto Raptors last month, Toronto swarmed Embiid before he even caught the ball. He shot 9-of-33 combined, and couldn't reclaim control of those games the way Jokic and LeBron might have.
But Toronto has a rare collection of long, fast, and ferocious defenders. The Sixers split those games, and Embiid managed 43 combined points largely thanks to his residency at the foul line. His defense was unaffected.
Is he the MVP? He probably leads by a hair today. A lot will change between now and voting time. Regardless: This is the Embiid we have waited to see.
Side note: James Harden's name has entered the MVP discourse. We have to see what life looks like when Kevin Durant returns, but no player has ever won the MVP during a season in which he was traded.
2. Bradley Beal's Carmelo Mode
Woe to smaller defenders stuck on Beal:
Beal is playing with so much nasty. He's like a skinny Carmelo Anthony from the triple-threat position. Concede any airspace, and he rises for a silky midranger; Beal has hit 51% on long 2s. Press him, and he dusts you. Beal's first step is ridiculous. If you manage to stay in front of him, Beal plows forward for physical, side-stepping floaters.
Add it up, and the Washington Wizards are averaging 1.065 points per possession when Beal shoots out of an isolation or passes to a teammate who fires -- 28th among 99 players who have recorded at least 50 isolations. (That's just ahead of Kawhi Leonard.) Beal's transformation from shooter to scorer to scorer-creator has been remarkable. Every season, he becomes more well-rounded.
3. Phoenix without both star guards
I assume Monty Williams will scrap this in the playoffs, but any minutes the Phoenix Suns -- 16-3 in their past 19 games! -- play without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker feel needlessly precarious.
Opponents have outscored the Suns by four points per 100 possessions with both All-Stars resting. The Suns have scrounged only 100 points per 100 possessions in those minutes -- four below the Oklahoma City Thunder's cellar-dwelling offense.
The Booker-Paul pairing feels like a strong case for fairly extreme staggering in the way the Houston Rockets staggered Paul and James Harden. Both guys dominate the ball and frolic in the midrange. The Suns are plus-14 points per 100 possessions when Paul goes solo, and plus-11 in Booker-only minutes, per NBA.com.
That said, the Suns have started rolling with both stars on the floor after losing those minutes over the first six weeks. Since Feb. 1, Phoenix has walloped opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions when Paul and Booker play together. Some star duos have such a powerful amplifying effect on each other that maximizing their shared time ends up the right call. Booker and Paul are developing synergy, including on set plays.
Both stars are dangerous shooters capable of starting possessions away from the ball. The Paul-Booker pick-and-roll could be a situational weapon, since Booker can bully some point guards on switches. Williams might be playing the smart long game by sacrificing some meaningless regular-season minutes to ignite chemistry between his stars.
In the playoffs, though, staggering appears the right call.
PS: Despite what the numbers say now, I still think the Suns' original starting lineup -- with Jae Crowder at power forward -- is their best starting five.
4. The Mavs have their mojo back
The Dallas Mavericks ranked 21st in points per possession on Feb. 2. That was not shocking given how the coronavirus ravaged them. But even as Dallas started cobbling its rotation back together, things didn't look right. Something ineffable -- a certain pop -- was missing.
Not anymore.
This was the sort of improvisation that made the Mavs' offense special last season. They had a style and an identity beyond Luka Doncic running streams of pick-and-rolls. Doncic is one of the league's give-and-go geniuses. When he makes in-between plays like this, it enlivens the Dallas ecosystem with a joyful, hyperaware verve. Hell, it helped turn Kristaps Porzingis into a decent passer at times.
Josh Richardson is attacking with renewed rigor (even if his 3-pointer is still M.I.A.), and the Mavs are hunting points in semi-transition -- healthy for a slow team that prefers the predictable organization of half-court sets:
Numbers don't reveal evidence of any systematic transformation -- beyond the Mavs finding their collective 3-point stroke.
Their passing numbers -- total passes, hockey assists, assist rate -- are up a little, but there is no dramatic jump. They aren't generating more fast-break buckets, though they have been more efficient in transition, per both Cleaning The Glass and Inpredictable. They have exchanged some midrangers for 3s, and their improved 3-point accuracy is partly the product of cleaner shots. (Most of their uptick in attempts has come via catch-and-shoots.)
But sometimes you just know it when you see it. A bunch of small improvements adds up to something bigger. The Mavs look right again. They are settling into a rotation, and leaning on what we all expected would be their core lineups.
Now we have to see progress on defense. That starts with Porzingis, who has appeared livelier in the past week. If the Mavs emerge as a slightly above-average defense by the postseason -- assuming they get in -- nobody will be excited about playing them.
5. The vanishing Aaron Holiday
Ahead of last year's trade deadline, the Indiana Pacers probably could have nabbed a first-round pick -- a middling one, but still -- for Holiday. They rebuffed inquiries, and you understood why. Holiday is a hellhound athlete who was showing improved 3-point touch and craft with the ball.
A year later, he is a flailing bit player. He logged a season-low 4:37 against the Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday, and did not get off the bench in the second half as Indiana's other backup point guard -- T.J. McConnell -- recorded 10 (!) steals and (probably) robbed a bank on his way out of town. (McConnell is leading the league in steals as a reserve. I still think the NBA should have included my T.J. McConnell Inbounds Pass Challenge in All-Star Weekend.)
Holiday has lost some ferocity around the basket, and at 6-0, he needs all the oomph he can muster. He's shooting 37% overall and 41% in the restricted area, per Cleaning the Glass -- almost unfathomably bad. Instead of trying to finish through and around help defenders, he's lofting super-high prayers over them -- shots that sometimes crest above the backboard. He has somehow drawn zero shooting fouls out of the pick-and-roll, per Second Spectrum.
Still: Smart teams should monitor Holiday as a buy-low candidate. He's a sound, physical defender who has shown enough glimpses on offense to make you wonder if he could grow into at least a very good backup.
6. The rock-solid Memphis Grizzlies
Psst ... the Grizzlies are 16-16 despite missing Jaren Jackson Jr. for the entire season, Justise Winslow for most of it, and Ja Morant for some -- and still waiting on the anticipated Year 2 improvement from Morant.
The biggest reason: The Grizz rank tied for sevetnth in defensive efficiency. They lead the league in forcing turnovers, but their stinginess goes beyond harassing opponents into mistakes. For a (mostly) young team, the Grizz are unusually attuned to the complexities of defense. They move and slide in sync. They help each other without exposing new holes.
Beautiful. Davis Bertans creates a crisis by back-cutting De'Anthony Melton. Xavier Tillman Sr. dips down from Rui Hachimura to block Raul Neto's passing lane to Bertans. Neto swings it to Hachimura, but Tillman recovers without conceding the blow-by. Morant helps just in case, and returns to wall off Neto's drive. Brandon Clarke then plants one foot in the paint to dissuade Neto, and scampers back to Deni Avdija.
On it goes until the Grizz smother one final pick-and-roll. Note how Clarke crashes from the side where Washington has two shooters -- allowing Melton to stay close to Bertans:
The Grizz are not impenetrable. Some windows open on this play. A better team with more shooting might take advantage. But Memphis closes those windows fast.
The Grizzlies prove the power of playing no bad (by NBA standards -- everyone in the NBA is amazing) players. At full strength, the Grizzlies might be 14 or 15 deep in legit rotation players. Their two central rookies -- Tillman and Desmond Bane -- are 22, way ahead of the curve on defense. Winslow can defend every position, allowing Memphis to play frontcourts of all sizes and styles. The Grizzlies are so deep, Melton -- a whirlwind of activity who stuffs the stat sheet and is shooting 42% on 3s -- almost fell out of the rotation.
Morant is the only real defensive liability, give or take some unfriendly matchups for Jonas Valanciunas. The Grizz can cover for Morant fine. Both Morant and Jackson need to tighten up on defense, but Memphis has years to figure that out.
Credit also goes to head coach Taylor Jenkins and his staff. The Grizz play every possession -- on both ends -- with a purpose. They are well-prepared every night.
7. Dejounte Murray, puffing out his chest
Murray's improvement doesn't leap off the page as a capital-B "breakout," but something is happening. Look at this dude:
That right-to-left crossover dusts suckers every night. Murray leaves poor Luguentz Dort somewhere near Tulsa. Murray looks different: at ease, in control, confident he belongs at the head of the snake. He's posting career highs across the board, and dipping his toe into medium-volume 3-point shooting: 33% on almost 3.5 attempts per game, with fewer coming from the corners.
He has hit 45% on long 2s, though he's perhaps too dependent on that shot. Murray is not getting to the rim as much, and has drawn shooting fouls on only 1.2% of his pick-and-rolls -- 99th among 115 players who have run at least 200 such plays, per Second Spectrum. The happy flip side: Murray has the eighth-lowest turnover rate among that group.
Murray's improved jumper gives Gregg Popovich more flexibility trying combinations of his young core. Murray's defense is back where it was when he made All-Defensive second team in 2017-18. His arms are a menace to society.
Murray is the furthest along of San Antonio's key young guys: Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jakob Poeltl, and Lonnie Walker IV. (Is it too soon to include Luka Samanic?) Does he have the best chance among them at cracking an All-Star team or two?
8. LaMelo Ball, at his rhythm
Ball is for real -- including in ways even Ball optimists did not expect so soon. He's shooting 38% from deep on heavy volume (and 80% at the line!) and has been fine on defense by rookie standards. Yeah, he ball watches here and there. He slacks into an upright stance at times.
But his size, rebounding, and nose for the ball mostly compensate for so-so habits he can iron out. Ball is a playmaker on defense. He is a deterrent at the rim when he raises his arms. Best of all, he's trying to stay engaged. He's attentive, head on a swivel, and you already see him learning the patterns of NBA offense -- making some advanced off-ball rotations.
Watch enough NBA games, and you internalize the pacing of specific actions -- how ball handlers navigate options on the pick-and-roll, when they sling that pass to corner shooters. You notice right away when someone plays in between the usual beats. Most of those players are really good. Ball is one.
There is something a little different about the rhythm and timing of that pass -- and a lot of Ball's passes. Maybe it's that he throws it after he crosses half court -- a second later than most guards toss these diagonal hit-aheads. Maybe it's the way he accelerates his dribble into the pass instead of slowing down to gather and aim. That pacing -- combined with a one-handed delivery that flows right out of his dribble -- serves to disguise the pass until it's airborne.
Ball's cadence is maybe 5% off the norm. That's true even in the half court, where he flicks hook passes from unusual angles -- waist-level, over his head -- and unusual places with both hands. That 5% dissonance can make someone very hard to defend -- especially once his teammates digest it, and understand how to play off of it. It helps that Ball is a threat to score out of the pick-and-roll; defenses can't load up on the pass.
Rookie of the Year looks like a wrap.
9. Clashing virtual corporate logos
The Blazers might be No. 1 in NBA aesthetics rankings. A red-and-black color scheme is unassailable. Their logo -- one of the only abstract signature logos in all of U.S. sports -- is an understated masterpiece that evokes the speed of the game. I even like their new brown city edition jerseys.
And so it is with great regret that I denounce the recent use of *four* virtual-only green corporate on-court logos -- two apiece for Biofreeze and Delta Dental.
I have no ill will toward either company. Green is my favorite color. Red and green mesh fine during the holidays. These are virtual logos that appear only on the local Portland broadcast -- and only for portions of games.
But such sullying of some of the NBA's prettiest courts cannot -- nay, shall not! -- stand. There is too much going on with red, white, black, and two shades of green on the floor at once. (The blue Bleacher Report Kicks logo on the Boston Celtics' classic parquet floor was another recent virtual eyesore.) Either shift those logos elsewhere, or render them in one of the home team's core colors.
10. Celebrating a teammate's 3-pointer from ideal rebounding position
Watch Hamidou Diallo after he kicks to Mike Muscala:
I love how Diallo is taking joy in the success of others -- raising three fingers in premature celebration. But, my man, you are in prime rebounding position! I know most teams punt offensive rebounding these days, but come on! Hit somebody and jump!
Diallo is having a nice season. Once among the league's most frenetic players, he has made more under-control plays like this drive-and-kick. With George Hill, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Theo Maledon all missing snippets of time, we have seen glimpses of Point Hami -- and they have not been terrible! Diallo had 53 assists combined his first two seasons; he has 77 in this one. He's just 22.
Diallo is a solid defender and very good rebounder. He's shooting 29% on 3s, and that's the skill that will make or break his ability to play real minutes on a good team someday.
He's not alone in forfeiting offensive boards to engage in some revelry. Check out Beal after he grabs his own miss between four Minnesota Timberwolves defenders (pathetic, Minny) and zips the ball to Raul Neto:
Beal one-ups Diallo by raising both arms. Even had the ball caromed right to Beal, it might have struck him in the face.