What can we expect from the second half of the 2020-21 NBA season now that we have a schedule?
The NBA announced the remainder of the schedule to complete a shortened 72-game regular season, with play resuming March 10 following a modified All-Star break. Unlike most years, when differences between teams' schedules are marginal, they're significant this time around because of the need to make up first-half games postponed by COVID-19 spread and severe weather in Texas.
Which teams have the toughest road the remainder of the season? And what is the meaning of home-court advantage with limited fans in attendance? Let's take a closer look at the second-half schedule.
'Parked' teams hit hard by back-to-backs
Initially, teams kept playing as long as they had the minimum required eight players available following contact tracing after a positive test, forcing several to play short-handed, most notably the Philadelphia 76ers, who had just seven healthy players for a January loss to the Denver Nuggets.
However, in the wake of six Washington Wizards testing positive for COVID-19 in mid-January, the NBA altered its philosophy. As described to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, the league began "parking" teams, starting with the Memphis Grizzlies, who had five games postponed following a single positive test.
All told, Memphis has a league-high six postponed games to make up in the second half of the season. The Wizards and San Antonio Spurs, who recently saw multiple games postponed after four players initially tested positive for COVID-19, have five apiece. Because the NBA did not extend the second half of the regular season, those teams will have relatively crowded schedules. The Grizzlies and Spurs will play a league-high 11 back-to-backs apiece.
Five teams have not yet had a game postponed and therefore have more favorable rest in the second half: the Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Toronto Raptors. None of those teams will play more than eight back-to-backs.
If there's a silver lining for the teams with more games to make up, it's that doing so requires their opponents to play with less rest too. In fact, Memphis (14) and San Antonio (13) will catch more teams on a back-to-back than they play themselves. The Clippers (just three opponent back-to-backs) and Indiana Pacers (four) come out on the wrong end of that equation.
What kind of home-court advantage can we expect?
One of the key storylines this season has been the relative lack of a home edge with limited fans in attendance at best. The winning percentage for home teams has trended upward over the course of the season but still is just .532, which would be the lowest in NBA history. Previously, the .551 home winning percentage in 2019-20 before the season shut down because of the COVID-19 pandemic was the smallest advantage.
As teams bring back increasing numbers of fans, there's reason to believe the winning percentage for home teams could get closer to what we've seen in the past. The decline in home-court advantage is being driven primarily by games played with no fans in attendance. (Player guests are permitted at some of these games, but officially they have zero attendance.) Home teams have won 52% of those games with a 0.5-point home-court advantage when adjusted for the overall performance of both teams.
By contrast, in games with limited fan attendance, the home winning percentage increases to 56% -- actually higher than last season's mark -- with a 1.6-point home-court advantage. This is compelling evidence that the decline in home-court advantage is being driven by playing without fans rather than due to schedule changes to reduce travel, which is consistent with past research on why teams play better at home.
With the Nets and New York Knicks welcoming fans back this week, we're up to nearly half the league (14 teams in all) playing in front of some home crowd. This past week has also seen the three largest crowds of the season with the Orlando Magic pushing their attendance over 4,000. As local restrictions are relaxed, crowds will likely increase the rest of the season unless new virus variants transmitting in the U.S. push COVID-19 cases back up.
Therefore, it makes sense to project greater home-court advantage the rest of the way than we've seen so far. I'm going to set home-court advantage at plus-1 point per game in evaluating the remaining schedule.
Which teams have the toughest schedules?
Let's put this analysis together and look at which teams have the toughest and easiest remaining schedules. In addition to my projection for home-court advantage, I added a 1.2-point penalty for teams playing a back-to-back based on the observed effect so far this season to the current rating for each opponent in ESPN's Basketball Power Index. That yields the following rankings:
With limited home-court advantage, opposition is the biggest factor in remaining schedule strength. The Houston Rockets have played just two games so far against the top five teams in BPI (the Milwaukee Bucks, Utah Jazz, Nets, Lakers and Clippers) and will have to face those teams a combined 10 times in the second half -- overwhelming the benefit they get from playing 21 of their 38 games at home.
On the other end of the spectrum, two slow-starting Eastern Conference teams should benefit from their second-half schedules. The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors both get to feast on more of the East's also-rans in the second half. They have all three games remaining against the Cleveland Cavaliers, BPI's worst-rated team.
Schedule strength could play a key role in the battle for seeding in the Western Conference. The Lakers have the sixth-hardest second-half schedule, while the rival Clippers' slate is more average. But the Jazz, already three games up on the Clippers with the head-to-head tiebreaker and 3.5 up on the Lakers pending Wednesday night's matchup in Salt Lake City, have the easiest second-half schedule of any West team. They will play just three games against the other top five teams in BPI, which might help the Jazz open up a big cushion as the No. 1 seed.