One-third of the way through one of the strangest seasons in NBA history, the playoff picture remains murky at best. That's especially true considering the postseason now includes a play-in round that only expands the amount of potential outcomes, while increasing the importance of the final standings in fascinating new ways.
The rules have changed. The race for the No. 6 seed in both conferences is now vital. Same with the race for No. 10.
With Thursday's release of ESPN's revamped Basketball Power Index (BPI), let's explore the latest in the playoff picture. Who are the locks in each conference? Which teams are on the play-in bubble? And which teams will ultimately make it in?
How BPI works
This new, enhanced version of BPI is the latest projection system from ESPN Analytics. Now utilizing real plus-minus and player availability data, BPI can properly account for who's playing in each game and how much their individual efforts contribute to team success on the court.
This lets BPI immediately give precise projections throughout each game day whenever a player is traded, returns from injury or has to sit out.
You can find the team-by-team BPI ratings here and BPI-based playoff and lottery projections here, both of which will be updated daily.
Now, onto the playoff groupings ...
Group 1: Top contenders
The West | Top-3 seed odds
• Los Angeles Lakers: 98.6%
• Utah Jazz: 94.8%
• LA Clippers: 77.5%
BPI gives the defending champion Lakers a 70% chance to make the conference finals and better than a 50% chance to win the West outright. Considering LeBron James has been to 90% of the past 10 Finals, that estimate might be conservative.
The Lakers remain one of the most ferocious two-way teams in the NBA. Their defense currently ranks first in the NBA, and well, any squad with James and Anthony Davis will be fine on offense. It's also no shock that the Clippers make an appearance here. But there's a surprising new top-tier threat out West -- Utah enters Thursday's games with a 30.4% chance at claiming the No. 1 seed.
Yep, Utah. The Jazz have inserted themselves into the conversation by winning 16 of their past 17 games. That's their best 17-game stretch since the Karl Malone-John Stockton era in 1997-98, which is also the last time they reached the NBA Finals.
After finishing No. 6 last season and exiting in the first round, Utah is emerging as a legit contender for one simple reason: offense. The Jazz rank No. 2 in the league in both 3-point attempts per game and 3-point efficiency.
The East | Top-3 seed odds
• Milwaukee Bucks: 96.8%
• Philadelphia 76ers: 78.5%
• Brooklyn Nets: 53.5%
In the East, BPI loves Milwaukee. The model gives the Bucks a 72% chance of earning the No. 1 overall seed despite the fact they currently sit two games behind the Sixers in the standings.
BPI is in part fueled by prior performances via the predictive version of RPM. That means it's driven by inputs from the previous seasons featuring domination from Milwaukee's players and uneven contributions from these Sixers. Add in that Philly has played the easiest schedule in the league thus far and Milwaukee currently has the league's best net rating ... and here we are.
Still, the fancy BPI model doesn't factor in vibes, folks, and right now Joel Embiid is currently giving off legitimate MVP vibes. Daryl Morey and Doc Rivers have changed the entire culture in Philly. This team has both swagger and shooting on the edges, things that were sorely missing in the brief Al Horford era last season. If Embiid stays healthy and the Sixers can keep posting the best defensive numbers in the East, they can stay on top.
And any conversation about East favorites has to include the new superteam in Brooklyn, right? The Nets are clearly a factor here, but it's complicated. The model currently gives the Nets less than a 6% chance of claiming the top seed and a 20% chance of grabbing No. 2. This group just hasn't demonstrated greatness yet, going 8-6 since James Harden's debut.
BPI still gives the Nets a 37% chance of making the Eastern Conference finals -- second only to the Bucks -- due to projections that have them as the fourth-best playoff squad in the league (behind the Bucks, Lakers and Jazz). Still, those are dicey odds. If the super-shiny Nets flame out in the first two rounds, there's a 100% chance of some major finger pointing. You don't empty your draft cupboards and pay a massive luxury-tax bill to end that far from the NBA Finals.
Group 2: Solid playoff candidates
The West: Chances to finish No. 6 or better
• Phoenix Suns: 78.7%
• Denver Nuggets: 76.4%
• Golden State Warriors: 56.2%
The race for the last three guaranteed playoff spots in the West is downright messy in a great way. Remember, teams that finish No. 7, No. 8, No. 9 or No. 10 have to play their ways into the postseason bracket ... before they face one of the top squads. No, thanks. Staying out of that bloodbath is essential positioning.
BPI currently gives the Suns, Nuggets and Warriors a majority chance of grabbing one of these guaranteed playoff slots. The Dallas Mavericks (30.6%), Portland Trail Blazers (21.1%) and New Orleans Pelicans (20.9%) lead a secondary tier of hopefuls.
A few things are helping those top three teams:
Net rating: Denver and Phoenix are both in the top 10, while Golden State's No. 11 mark is better than the other challengers.
Reliable, available superstars: The Warriors have Stephen Curry and his massive plus-7.64 predictive RPM. The Nuggets have their own MVP candidate in Nikola Jokic (plus-4.87). The Suns have Chris Paul (plus-3.92) and Devin Booker (plus-1.66) plus a deep group of positive contributors.
The other squads are facing on-court inconsistency, COVID-19 complications and/or injuries. But there's still plenty of time for this tier to get a massive shake-up.
The East: Chances to finish No. 6 or better
• Toronto Raptors: 94.7%
• Boston Celtics: 91.3%
• Miami Heat: 65.9%
This crew is mostly looming in the shadows right now. But check this out: If the Nets land at No. 3 as projected, there is a very good chance they will face one of these scary teams early in the postseason. BPI gives Brooklyn a 59.4% chance of seeing Boston, Toronto or Miami in Round 1. Yikes.
Sure, all three have had disappointing starts, but they all have the potential to turn it around.
BPI likes Toronto the most. The model gives the Raptors a 24% chance of reaching the conference finals, just a few points lower than Philly's estimated chances. The Raps are trending up and deserve the benefit of the doubt. After all, they're the only team in the league on a never-ending road trip and they've won at least 50 games in each of the past five seasons. It's reasonable to expect them to snap back into form as we approach the postseason.
At 12-11, Boston is also a juicy threat. Jaylen Brown has been awesome so far, and along with Jayson Tatum he provides the Celtics with the best wing combination this side of Clipperland. But the Celtics have not consistently been playing like a true contender. Their issues appear to be the most concerning whenever their star point guard is in the game.
The Celtics are 9-4 in games without Kemba Walker and just 3-7 in the games Walker has played. They are struggling on both ends with Walker on the court, posting a scary net rating of minus-7.6 in his 274 minutes. Boston has built a reputation for sturdy defense in the Brad Stevens era, but that hasn't been the case this season, especially with Walker and Tristan Thompson on the floor. If these indicators don't improve before the deadline, Boston might need to look at importing new talent for the stretch run.
Miami would be tied for 10th if the season ended today, but the team is also just 2.5 games back of fourth-place Boston. It's too early to worry about these guys given their historically short offseason and roster issues to start the season. BPI projects that the Heat have a 33.6% chance of finishing in the play-in. Given how cursed this team looked to start the year, that's actually pretty low. And you know Milwaukee still wants nothing to do with these dudes in Round 1.
Group 3: The play-in bubble
Reminder on the new play-in format: No. 7 plays No. 8, and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7/8 matchup gets the No. 7 seed in the playoff bracket. The loser of the 7/8 game plays the winner of the 9/10 game, and the winner there gets the final postseason spot as the No. 8 seed.
So while you want to make it all the way up to No. 6 to avoid this scenario entirely, finishing seventh or eighth has a real advantage over ending up ninth or 10th, because you'd need to win only once to advance beyond the play-in.
Now, on to the BPI projections. Let's just hit both conferences together here, because there's a big clump of teams in the mix. Even when excluding the Group 2 teams with solid play-in odds -- such as Golden State (39.5%) and Miami (33.6%) -- there are 12 squads with at least a 25% chance of ending up in the bonus round.
Note: These projections don't include a team's chances of making the final playoff bracket. This is each team's chances of finishing Nos. 7-10 in the regular-season standings, leading to a play-in appearance..
The West: Chances to make the play-in
• Portland Trail Blazers: 58%
• New Orleans Pelicans: 57%
• Dallas Mavericks: 56%
• San Antonio Spurs: 47%
• Sacramento Kings: 44%
• Memphis Grizzlies: 27%
• Houston Rockets: 26%
The East: Chances to make the play-in
• Atlanta Hawks: 80%
• Charlotte Hornets: 77%
• Indiana Pacers: 74%
• Chicago Bulls: 44%
• New York Knicks: 25%
There are some fascinating combinations here. Among the most exciting: Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic ending up in a win-or-go-home game before facing the Lakers or Jazz in Round 1. Same goes for Trae Young vs. LaMelo Ball in the East. Bring it on.
Of course, the it's-still-early caveat is important. BPI likes the 13th-place Mavs to eventually make the final playoff bracket with a 64% chance. That tops both the Pelicans (52%) and the Blazers (51%). One surprise hot streak could seriously alter this landscape by the time we even see the NBA's second-half schedule.
But one of the perks of the new format is that more teams stay relevant deeper into the season. If all 12 of these teams enter the final stretch with decent play-in odds, the last few weeks of games will be fascinating.