Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were supposed to be it, the antidotes for one of sports' most snakebitten franchises.
As a superstar tandem, Leonard and George were well cast for the LA Clippers. They were less temperamental than the Lob City teams that flirted with contention, and more talented than the lunch-bucket overachievers of 2018 and 2019. The duo brought the best of both -- the dogged work ethic without the combustibility -- and in Leonard's case, a championship pedigree. But when the Clippers' bubble burst in September, the story was all too familiar: a total collapse in the conference semifinals to the Denver Nuggets after leading the series 3-1.
Some of the Clippers' flaws are easier to pinpoint than others. Superstars have to play their best when it matters most, but they also need to lend confidence to teammates. Rolling through the regular season on the strength of veteran talent and individual shotmaking is helpful, but a postseason series that opponents can scout for days requires more creative adjustments. Setting general expectations for success is pretty easy for a contender, but managing day-to-day expectations during the grind of the season demands something more. Randomness also plays a huge part. An argument among teammates in January doesn't inform another player's cold shooting night in September.
The Clippers' capacity to correct last year's shortcomings will determine whether they can make good on the promise of their talent this season.
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Catching up to the superstar acquisitions
The problems
When Leonard arrived in Toronto in the fall of 2018, the Raptors had both the systems and personnel in place to absorb his unconventional brand of superstar persona.
While Leonard shuns the spotlight that other stars bask in, he requires his team to cater to a demanding, precise and sometimes quirky routine. Toronto employed one of the NBA's top physiotherapists whom Leonard could trust to devise a workable load management program. The Raptors' executive team spent years establishing authority over every corner of the operation. The culture had a strong conservator in Kyle Lowry to counsel younger players if they took some umbrage at the adjustments made to accommodate Leonard.
Meanwhile, absent an All-Star in Los Angeles, the Clippers were developing an egalitarian ethic as a gritty squad with no individual player bigger than the whole. Riding the Lou Williams-Montrezl Harrell pick-and-roll, the Clippers took the Golden State Warriors to six games in the first round of the 2019 playoffs, acquitting themselves as a team that got more out of less. Six weeks later, Leonard and George arrived, and the egalitarian utopia transformed into a hierarchical star system overnight. Such a stark, 180-degree turn was made even more difficult because it was the incumbent overachievers who were forced to make the adjustment rather than the newcomers.
The Clippers' infrastructure was still years behind. While some in the organization were miffed by who got to use which executive washroom and who played travel agent, the real issues were far greater. Even with owner Steve Ballmer's limitless resources, sources said the franchise was still learning how to invest wisely in the right things and the right personnel.
In many respects, the franchise's identity at the time of the major acquisitions was: "We are going to get Kawhi and another star." There was none of Miami's buttoned-up militarism or Oklahoma City's process-oriented precision or Boston's ethic of empowerment. There was no selfless leader like Stephen Curry or Damian Lillard who embodied what the organization is about.
On the court, there was a season and a half of the Dirt Work All-Stars that followed several seasons of Lob City, but for the Clippers as a franchise in 2019, ambition was the identity.
The fix
The Clippers now have one (awkward) season under their belts learning how to assimilate Leonard and George and how to manage expectations for the several dozen people in the organization who are not Leonard and George.
Gone are some of those, including Harrell, who had a more difficult time transitioning to the hierarchical system. Since the playoff elimination, players and staffers who previously blanched at the inconveniences presented by a two-time Finals MVP requiring some extra space for his unique pregame regimen have been educated on a certain reality in the NBA: Exceptional stars are afforded exceptional privileges.
But cohesion is about far more than whether Role Player A is comfortable with the vibe created by the signing of Superstar B. If the Clippers seemed to get less out of more last season, it was due in part to an organization whose systems weren't fully built out.
Continuity is primarily thought of as an asset on the floor, a luxury enjoyed by a five-man unit that's logged more than 1,000 minutes over more than one season. But an organization needs continuity from top to bottom to establish a coherent mandate for players, coaches and management. A quick scan of the Clippers directory in 2019 would have shown some talented professionals as coaches, performance folks, analysts, nutritionists and research and development. Yet much of that work was siloed, with modest collaboration between departments and specialists.
Specifically, player development has been an area where the Clippers lagged behind more advanced organizations that see it as far more comprehensive than coaching up prospects and stretching a big man out to the 3-point line. Player reps and those inside the organization say that the team has overhauled its program to pursue a much more integrated approach. As an example, take the Clippers' young center, Ivica Zubac.
With the departure of Harrell, Zubac will be asked to do more, like becoming a reliable pick-and-roll option. This means that Zubac will not only go through countless reps on the practice floor, but also will work with the performance team on hip mobility, which is essential. It also means having his production tracked to ensure he's getting the ball at the optimal instant at the most optimal spot. If there are specific nutritional hacks a young big man can deploy, rest assured the nutritional team will have a meal with his name on it. Above all, this tailored program will be managed attentively from above.
Every player will have a personalized curriculum. According to sources, this was one of the particulars discussed in conversations between Leonard and team officials at the end of last season. The Clippers needed a sturdier structure in service of one overriding goal: making sure the players on the team are better at the beginning of the postseason than they were at the beginning of the regular season.
X's and O's following an epic collapse
The problems
The Clippers were by most measures an excellent offensive team last season. They got tremendous production from their big scorers out of the pick-and-roll, rode Leonard in isolation, hit 3s and protected the ball reasonably well. They were even more dominant in the playoffs, ranking behind only the Lakers and a Mavericks team they defeated in six games in offensive efficiency.
There was only one problem: In the second halves of Games 5, 6 and 7 vs. Denver, the Clippers scored a microscopic 86 points per 100 possessions. Leonard couldn't generate anything out of ball screens, while George scored a total of zero points in his 11 iso opportunities. This three-part horror film was a bizarre departure from the veteran unit that could find good shots with a blindfold all season long.
But here's where the narrative becomes more complicated. In those three atrocious second halves, per Second Spectrum tracking, the Clippers' quantified shot probability (which determines expected effective field goal percentage taking into account shooter quality, shot distance, shot location and closest defenders, among other factors) was 54.11%, better than the league-wide playoff average.
It's difficult to watch Leonard miss bunnies at the rim and George turn in some of his most putrid performances -- all while Denver logged an unthinkable eFG of 68.2% on a diet of shots that were mediocre by any standard -- and conclude that the Clippers' core is ill-suited to a championship run. Looking possession by possession, the Clippers' demise in the bubble seems like a cosmic prank.
The fix
In a league that's moving toward a less choreographed, more "random" offense, new coach Ty Lue is a throwback. This doesn't mean he discounts spacing or positionless basketball, but just as the Clippers are implementing more structure in their organization, Lue will institute more scripted offense than his predecessor.
Whereas many of today's NBA coaches encourage their teams to generate opportunities out of the flow of a read-and-react offense, Lue believes finding the optimal shots for a unit's best offensive players is best accomplished with defined sets.
"We have to be able to get the ball to our guys and our sweet spots where they're comfortable" Lue said. "I wouldn't say [the offense] is a system, but we will have packages and series where we can call each guy's number."
For the Clippers, that might mean a "punch" series, which generally works for a post touch for a designated player, off of which he has a couple of options for different teammates. It might mean a slice series, where bodies move crosscourt, opening up space and injecting a little misdirection to boot.
"You can call anybody's number out of a package," Lue said. "That's kind of how I like to run my stuff, and also be able to take advantage of a mismatch we like as well."
George complained recently that he was used too frequently as an off-ball threat who was reliant on pindowns. Last season, he ranked 24th in pindowns per 100 possessions among players for whom more than 250 pindowns were run, with 11.8, per Second Spectrum. Though George might not have liked the playcall, it was a damn good piece of offense -- only three players in the league generated better efficiency off more chances. It was a heavier volume of his opportunities than 2018-19, but fewer than his previous two seasons.
There are few bad ways for Lue to use George, one of the NBA's most versatile half-court players. He's a pliable piece in any set and an iso threat off-script. And Leonard is one of the game's most reliable scorers. His strength means he's rarely ever more than a single dribble and bump from his ideal spot, and his range means he can leverage space to make getting to that spot even easier.
The playoffs also exposed Harrell's lack of versatility in difficult contexts. The Clippers needed a player who could play both the 4 and 5 in big moments while stretching the floor. By replacing Harrell with Serge Ibaka, the Clippers were able to address those needs in one stroke.
Lue's reputation around the league for the chess match of an NBA game is strong. One general manager recently called him the "best 7:30 p.m. coach" in the league. Another said he belongs in the conversation with Rick Carlisle as the NBA's sharpest in-game operators. While in Cleveland, Lue's calls out of timeouts were so beguiling that opposing defenses -- like the Raptors in the postseason -- would play zone to ensure they wouldn't be hoodwinked.
Defensively, expect the Clippers to exploit their length a bit more. They'll use it to shrink the floor but also fire out to play more aggressively in the gaps, actively looking for deflections and steals. They'll still deploy the switch, though perhaps more selectively.
Overall, the thinking behind Lue's more structured schemes is that if the goal is to win in the playoffs, then his team should play postseason basketball all season.
Accountability and stability
The problems
As the Clippers began to fast-track their organizational overhaul in 2017 after Doc Rivers was removed from his duties as the top basketball executive, the conversation about program-building took a more central place. Ownership became much more pointed about its vision for the future and more focused on starting a new era right now.
The Clippers' head coach would be someone passionate about serving as a hub over the next decade for big initiatives, like integrating the player development program from top to bottom. And following 2020's brutal playoff exit, internal critiques of Rivers that existed in the background came to the surface. Fluky as the Denver series was, Clippers management wanted a head coach more inclined to intervene with a timely adjustment or more specific guidance if a unit is mired in an 0-for-11 slump.
A belief quickly emerged that there might be better coaches to embrace a level of accountability that extended far beyond taking arrows in the media. The Clippers wanted a leader who would assume passionate responsibility for everything.
The fix
Lue's ability to earn the trust of superstars is an invaluable trait. In the words of one of his colleagues, Lue is an expert at going after a star player without leaving a scar. Another source recalled a timeout during one of Lue's first games as a head coach in Cleveland in January 2016, when LeBron James and Kyrie Irving interjected to contradict a tactical adjustment. Lue responded, without ire or defensiveness, "Why don't you guys play and I'll coach the f---ing team."
Lue has an uncanny ability to honor a superstar's station while still holding him accountable. He's able to distinguish between the reasonable requests and unreasonable demands.
"My biggest thing is just communication and accountability," Lue said. "But in anything in life, whatever, there's always going to be a pecking order. It doesn't mean everyone else is treated unfairly. It just means that some people get away with more than others. But it can never be to the effect of where it hurts the team and where you don't hold guys accountable for certain things."
Though he comes in with a title to his name, Lue approached the Clippers opportunity with humility and an eagerness to collaborate, according to those close to the hiring process. In Cleveland, Lue wasn't the brand of culture vulture head coach interested in fashioning a high-minded organizational ethos common among NBA teams. With the Clippers, Lue has deferred to the front office's intense focus on the player development piece, and the large role the head coach has in facilitating that project. He's actively engaged in player development meetings and in conversations with the performance and medical teams.
Lue also took cues from management in the assembly of his staff. A noted workaholic who, even as a head coach, insisted on taking on many of the finer details often delegated elsewhere, Lue welcomed the team's suggestions of potential assistant coaches who had experience and expertise that differed from his. The bench includes former Brooklyn Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson, longtime Miami Heat assistant Dan Craig and Chauncey Billups.
Lue doesn't need to reinvent the wheel in Los Angeles -- if not for three miserable halves of basketball inside the bubble, he might be the head coach elsewhere this season. But he will need to steer it, oil it occasionally and patch up leaks. His proclivity as a head coach for keeping the main thing as the main thing without injecting too much ego into the job will come in handy.
A new coach can offer a fresh perspective, and a modern overhaul of basketball operations can give an NBA organization a better shot at maximizing results. Yet a team's infrastructure, culture, chemistry and accountability are, more than ever, defined by the superstars who are at the center of the franchise. It's Leonard and George who will determine whether the Clippers are an organization that's primed for success.
For the first time in their careers, both stars are playing for a team of their choosing rather than one that drafted them or acquired them via trade. In nearly every sense, the Clippers are their team, an expression of who they are as prime NBA superstars. If the Clippers need a jolt of fellowship this season during a rough stretch, it might require Leonard to be a more emotionally generous teammate than he's accustomed to being -- one of the few criticisms of his season in Toronto from those who were otherwise in awe of his professionalism. If the Clippers don't seem to be meeting their offensive potential, it might require George to be open to strategies that call for him to be used in ways he might not prefer.
Good systems and a sound culture are important, but they exist to service talent like Leonard and George. It's their job to make sure the Clippers' systems and culture look, sound and feel like them.