What does the Miami Heat's extension for All-Star center Bam Adebayo mean for their pursuit of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021 free agency?
When Miami held the line on contracts in the first few days of this year's free agency, handing out a series of deals that include team options for 2021-22, it appeared the Heat were hoarding their cap space for a run at Giannis next summer.
Miami could have maximized its space by allowing Adebayo to become a restricted free agent, using cap space on outside free agents next year and then going over the cap to re-sign Adebayo.
Tuesday's news leaves big questions: Should the apparent change of plans be taken as an indication that Antetokounmpo will soon sign an extension with the Milwaukee Bucks? Can the Heat still sign Giannis next summer after extending Adebayo?
Let's break it down, FAQ-style.
Can Miami still sign Giannis as a free agent?
Yes, but it's a lot more complicated, based on current salary-cap estimates.
The first important issue for the Heat is whether Adebayo achieves the criteria necessary to boost his salary in the first year of the extension from 25% of the salary cap (a projected $28.1 million) to 30% of the cap ($33.7 million) by either making an All-NBA team or winning Defensive Player of the Year. Adebayo finished fifth in the All-NBA voting for the three center spots last season and also finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, so both are reasonable possibilities.
If Adebayo is at the 25% max, Miami could potentially clear sufficient room to offer Antetokounmpo a max contract (starting at that same $33.7 million) by stripping down the roster to just All-Stars Adebayo and Jimmy Butler ($36 million). That would be painful, forcing the Heat to trade rising star Tyler Herro (as well as 2020 first-round pick Precious Achiuwa) and renounce the rights to restricted free agent Duncan Robinson.
Still, just having a path to signing Giannis outright would be important for Miami in getting the Bucks to the negotiating table next year for a sign-and-trade that would allow them to retain additional players. The Heat could send back some of their own free agents in a double sign-and-trade to match salaries while offering future first-round picks to make it worth Milwaukee's participation.
Should Adebayo make All-NBA or win Defensive Player of the Year and boost his salary north of 25% of the cap, the math gets even more difficult for Miami. In that scenario, the Heat would have to trade either Adebayo or Butler in order to create max cap space.
Why would Miami extend Adebayo now instead of waiting?
Certainly, the easiest path to the Heat signing a max free agent next summer involved postponing an Adebayo extension and using his $15.4 million cap hold before re-signing instead of his much larger max salary. There's an important catch here: Adebayo had to be on board with the plan.
As a restricted free agent, Adebayo couldn't leave the Heat without their OK, but he could have made his next contract more painful for them by signing an offer sheet with another team that allowed him to become an unrestricted free agent after just two seasons. This extension ensures he won't hit free agency again until 2025 or 2026.
Miami also wants to keep Adebayo, a core part of the franchise's future, happy. Although Kawhi Leonard went along with the San Antonio Spurs' similar plan to maximize their cap space in the summer of 2015, when they signed LaMarcus Aldridge to a max contract, my ESPN colleague Zach Lowe reported that waiting for a new deal "annoyed some in Leonard's camp." Lowe added that Leonard himself "understood the logic and appeared to accept it."
Certainly, Adebayo would have been taking some injury risk by delaying a new deal, no matter what kind of non-binding assurances he got from the Heat organization that they would take care of him as a restricted free agent. So it's understandable that he would push for an extension now.
Is this a signal Giannis will extend his contract in Milwaukee?
I don't think this news necessarily is a signal about Giannis' intentions, given the reasoning I've already laid out: Miami didn't want to upset Adebayo and could potentially still sign Antetokounmpo as a free agent anyway.
It's also worth noting that 2021 free agency isn't necessarily Giannis-or-bust for the Heat. It's possible that LA Clippers stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard could be available if they decline player options for 2021-22, though their higher maximum salaries (a projected $39.3 million because both will have at least 10 seasons of experience) would make them more difficult for Miami to sign outright. The Heat also have been linked to Victor Oladipo, who's in the final season of his contract with the Indiana Pacers.
No matter whether Giannis is a realistic possibility or not, the Heat would have created more cap space and had more flexibility if they delayed an extension for Adebayo. It's possible that the Heat were willing to risk their relationship with Adebayo only if they felt like they had a chance with Antetokounmpo. We might learn more about his intentions in the next few days and weeks.
Realistically, this probably came down to Miami wanting to take care of a 23-year-old All-Star whose impressive playoff run was key to the team unexpected making the NBA Finals. The Heat have Adebayo secured and can worry about the summer of 2021 more when it gets here.