What is shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks in NBA history began on Monday, when the league lifted its transaction moratorium and general managers executed their first trades since February. All that trade talk -- including two huge deals for the Milwaukee Bucks and conversations surrounding James Harden's future with Houston Rockets -- sets up a wild week in which the league will hold Wednesday's 2020 NBA draft (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) before quickly transitioning to NBA free agency on Friday (officially starting at 6 p.m. ET).
Our NBA experts answer the big questions about how draft-night moves will set up the rest of the week and what they're watching most closely.
MORE: How to watch the NBA draft
Which 2021 title contenders are you watching most closely over the next week?
Tim Bontemps: Several teams have the potential to meaningfully impact their 2021 title chances before the weekend is over. Here are the big questions I'm monitoring:
• Will the Golden State Warriors be able to pull off a big trade for another star? If not, how does the No. 2 pick fit on this roster? Golden State also has real (yet expensive) ways to improve this team via their taxpayer midlevel exception and the $17 million trade exception created by trading Andre Iguodala last summer. Can the Warriors use those two pieces to build out their depth?
• The Brooklyn Nets will be expecting to contend with a healthy Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They have to figure out if they can retain Joe Harris -- who will command big money in free agency -- while they remain a potential destination for superstar James Harden. How aggressive will the Nets be in seeking out upgrades before they see Irving and Durant on the court together -- all while Harden looms as a trade possibility?
• The Boston Celtics, with a full roster and three first-round picks, have been linked to lots of moves, but will they actually make any? The 76ers are expected to make a big splash as well, with Daryl Morey trying to reshape the roster around Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid after a disappointing 2019-20 season. And after making the Western Conference finals, will the Denver Nuggets be able to find a way to improve and keep Jerami Grant, one of the more intriguing unrestricted free agents?
• Will the teams that have been most linked to preserving max cap space next summer -- the Toronto Raptors, Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks -- stick to that path or adjust their thinking and be more aggressive in the short term?
We'll start to get some of those answers on Wednesday night.
How can Wednesday's draft change the shape of NBA free agency?
Bobby Marks: Pay attention to the draft's effects on roster flexibility.
The Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are good examples. These two teams have a combined five first-round picks but only one roster spot available each. If the Thunder and Celtics use all of their picks, their own players could become roster casualties.
The Thunder have team options on Deonte Burton and Hamidou Diallo, while the Celtics have a team option on Semi Ojeleye plus the non-guaranteed contract of Javonte Green. Both teams could package their picks in order to trade up or out of this draft -- and stashing a pick or two in Europe is certainly an option -- but if that doesn't happen, there's going to be a squeeze.
Keep an eye on the Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans as well. Those three teams combine to have nine second-round picks. If those picks are all used on signing two-way or developmental prospects, this year's already constricted class of free agents will be in an even more challenging spot. Cap space around the league is already limited. The draft also has the potential to cut into valuable roster spots.
Which teams can cause the biggest surprises on draft night?
Jonathan Givony: With the top three picks expected to be called for Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman and LaMelo Ball -- in some order -- the draft starts at No. 4 in the eyes of many teams.
• The Chicago Bulls have been one of the hardest teams for NBA executives to peg regarding their draft intentions, as teams seem to be split between Deni Avdija, Patrick Williams and Tyrese Haliburton in their predictions for Chicago. A trade is also possible. With this being Arturas Karnisovas' first draft pick as a lead decision-maker -- and a roster full of talented but inconsistent players he inherited from another regime -- the Bulls have no shortage of options.
• The Thunder have accumulated a war chest of draft picks, with as many as 17 first-round picks at their disposal between now and the 2026 draft. Will the Thunder start to cash in on that treasure trove on Wednesday to take some swings at players they can develop around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
In March, Oklahoma City elected to acquire the rights to LaMelo Ball's brother, LiAngelo, for its G League team. Many NBA executives believe the Thunder -- who attempt to conduct extensive research into every player added to the franchise -- did so to try to further their background intel on LaMelo. After the Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder trades, the Thunder could certainly have a need for a guard like LaMelo Ball. Will they shake up the draft by trading up into the top three to select him?
• Danny Ainge has never been afraid to make a splash on draft day. The Celtics have more first-round picks this year than anyone (Nos. 14, 26 and 30) as well as several veterans such as Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart who will surely draw interest on the trade market. Will the Celtics look to consolidate their assets and attempt a big addition?
Which three draft prospects are you watching most closely?
Mike Schmitz: I'll have a close eye on where the top international prospects land, specifically Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes and Aleksej Pokusevski.
I've always felt that team situation was going to play a big role in the type of NBA player Avdija becomes, even more so than most prospects. If he is planted in the corner in more of a 3-and-D role, the fans and coaching staff are likely to wonder what all the hype was about. That's why Chicago -- where we currently have Avdija in our mock draft -- is such an intriguing fit. The Bulls are in need of a big wing and a secondary playmaker, both roles Avdija can fill. Newly appointed head coach Billy Donovan has proved his ability to develop young talent, and Avdija would fit well alongside a core of Coby White, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr.
But if the Bulls go in another direction, where does Avdija ultimately land? Would the Cleveland Cavaliers or Atlanta Hawks nab him even if prospects such as Onyeka Okongwu, Obi Toppin and Isaac Okoro are on the board? Would the Detroit Pistons take him over a potential guard of the future in Tyrese Haliburton? What about the New York Knicks at No. 8? I consider Avdija a top-three prospect in this draft behind LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards, but I get the sense from NBA teams they generally don't share that assessment.
Hayes has one of the wider ranges among potential lottery prospects, and I'm curious to see if the NBA is quite as high on him as some draft experts and fans. Will NBA teams in the market for guards ultimately favor the crafty 6-foot-5 lefty over accomplished collegiate guards such as Haliburton, Kira Lewis Jr., Tyrese Maxey or even New Zealand Breakers speedster RJ Hampton? Hayes has a bright future if he can follow the Goran Dragic path, learning behind an accomplished point guard, figuring out how to add value in multi-guard lineups and then being fully prepared when handed the keys.
Then there's Pokusevski, the draft's mystery. Linked to the Thunder for the better part of a year, the 7-foot unicorn is the exact type of surprise international prospect we could see crash the lottery. With only 11 Greek second division games to go off of, Pokusevski has the type of limited résumé that teams either capitalize on for a steal or gamble into an overdraft. With other teams throughout the draft's teens doing their homework on Pokusevski and weighing the risk versus the reward, I'm interested to see if the Thunder ultimately use their assets to jump up in the draft and get him. Pokusevski is somewhat similar to Bol Bol -- a highly unique 7-footer who can shoot, handle, pass and block shots, all while facing questions about his toughness and durability at the NBA level.
What will you be watching most closely in free agency?
Kevin Pelton: What kind of value teams get for their money. Because the 2020-21 salary cap is coming in lower than expected (the most recent pre-pandemic projection had it at $115 million, per my ESPN colleague Adrian Wojnarowski, nearly $6 million more than the actual $109.1 million figure), few teams will use cap space this offseason.
The total number of cap teams will depend on whether teams choose to bring back their own free agents or renounce their rights to create space, but Bobby Marks indicates we're looking at from three to six teams among the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors, after the Phoenix Suns took themselves out of the running with the Chris Paul trade. Of those, Atlanta, Detroit and New York are the three teams that will probably be able to make max offers to players.
By contrast, Bobby projects that up to 11 teams could have max cap space next summer, putting them in the hunt for Giannis Antetokounmpo (if he decides against signing a supermax extension) and the other superstars potentially available. Several more teams, including the Dallas Mavericks, will have some cap space and could get to the max by shedding an existing contract or two.
Based on available free agents and committed salary, I estimate that each projected win above replacement during the first season of a new contract signed in free agency will cost teams somewhere in the ballpark of $2.5 million this offseason. In 2021, that figures to go up to somewhere between $2.6 and $3 million.
As a result, teams with cap space might get better values this year. The Hawks, in particular, could add quality contributors around their core of Clint Capela, John Collins and Trae Young. Atlanta would be wise to target young free agents, including players who are restricted and 23-year-old unrestricted free agent Derrick Jones Jr., in an effort to upgrade immediately without sacrificing long-term potential.
Given my projections, it's surprising that so many players are reportedly set to decline 2020-21 options and instead test unrestricted free agency. We'll see whether NBA teams find more money to go around despite the financial losses caused by finishing last season without fans in the stands.
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.