After a second-round playoff exit with the Milwaukee Bucks, reigning two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is eligible to sign a supermax extension this offseason. That would keep him in Milwaukee for the majority of his prime.
But if Antetokounmpo, 25, elects to wait until 2021 free agency to make a decision about his future, the Bucks should not panic. The same $220 million supermax contract will still be there after the season. Milwaukee should feel confident that it can make the best financial and basketball pitch. Plus, the team will have one more year to recruit him as a legitimate title contender and perhaps improve the roster with a trade.
If Antetokounmpo makes a surprise move and demands a trade, though, that's a different story.
Here is a look at the teams that have cap space to sign the reigning two-time MVP as a free agent in 2021 and what teams could offer in a trade, starting with his current team in Milwaukee and what is available should it attempt to make upgrades.
Note: Because the 2021-22 salary cap still needs to be negotiated between the NBA and National Basketball Players Association, we are using a $109.1 million cap -- the same as 2019-20 and likely 2020-21.
Milwaukee Bucks
There will be calls to break up the current group, especially after the Bucks lost to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals, but this is not like the roster Anthony Davis left in New Orleans. The Bucks have won 75% of their regular-season games the past two seasons. While they should go through the due diligence of canvassing the league for potential upgrades, they don't need a complete roster overhaul.
This week, owner Marc Lasry told Antetokounmpo the franchise is willing to spend into the luxury tax to deliver him a championship supporting cast, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Off the table: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Draft assets
2020 first-round pick from Indiana (No. 24)
Own first-rounder (likely starting in 2024)
The Bucks will send the Cleveland Cavaliers a 2022 first-rounder if it falls outside of the top 10. The first has protection in 2023 (top 10 and Nos. 25-30) and 2024 (top eight). Milwaukee cannot trade a first until two years after the pick is conveyed.
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)
Khris Middleton: $33.1 million, free agent in 2024 (player option in 2023-24)
Brook Lopez: $12.7 million, free agent in 2023
Eric Bledsoe: $16.9 million, free agent in 2023 ($3.9 million guaranteed in 2022-23)
George Hill: $9.6 million, free agent in 2022 ($1.3 million guaranteed in 2021-22)
Ersan Ilyasova: $7.0 million (non-guaranteed), free agent in 2021 (counts as zero salary in a trade)
Robin Lopez: $5.0 million, player option in 2020
D.J. Wilson: $4.5 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Donte DiVincenzo: $3.0 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Wesley Matthews: $2.7 million, player option in 2020
Thanasis Antetokounmpo: $1.7 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Complicating factors:
How much can the Bucks upgrade this roster by offering a combination of OK draft assets and those tradable contracts? A package of Bledsoe, Robin Lopez (if he opts in to his contract), Ilyasova, Wilson and draft picks for Chris Paul works, but is that enough to entice the Thunder?
Teams with 2021 cap space
Before the economics of the NBA crashed amid the coronavirus pandemic, the league was projecting the salary cap for 2021-22 to come in at $125 million. Now, team executives are forecasting that the number to be as low as $109.1 million -- the same cap figure from the 2019-20 season.
That $16 million decrease in flexibility would all but eliminate the Los Angeles Lakers from being a serious contender to sign Antetokounmpo. It would also require the Dallas Mavericks to shed contracts to create a max slot and force the Toronto Raptors to take a cautious approach this offseason, because to sign Antetokounmpo in the summer of 2021, the magic number is $32.7 million (30% of the cap).
The Bucks can offer $80 million more in a new contract when factoring in the extra year and larger annual raises, but Antetokounmpo could opt to sign a three-year contract with a player option in the third season. By summer 2023, Antetokounmpo will have reached 10 years of service, increasing his starting salary to 35% of the cap and, most important, allowing the salary cap the opportunity to rebound. In 2023, Antetokounmpo will turn 29 and could sign a four-year, $196 million contract if the cap increases to $125 million.
Miami Heat
Projected room: $35 million
Who returns: Jimmy Butler ($36.0 million), Bam Adebayo ($15.3 million free-agent hold), Tyler Herro ($4.0 million), Kendrick Nunn ($2.1 million free-agent hold), Duncan Robinson ($2.1 million free-agent hold), KZ Okpala ($1.8 million), Chris Silva ($1.8 million team option) and 2020 first-round pick
Who might be gone: Andre Iguodala (team option declined) and Kelly Olynyk (free agent)
Other charges: Ryan Anderson ($5.2 million) and minimum salary adjustment ($3.1 million)
Outside of Milwaukee, the $35 million in projected room puts the Heat in the driver's seat with Antetokounmpo. The cupboard is far from bare, with All-Stars Butler and Adebayo along with a young core of Herro, Nunn and Robinson on the roster. The Heat can sign guard Goran Dragic to a one-year, $20 million contract this summer, renounce his rights in 2021 and then circle back using the $4.8 million room exception.
And one under-the-radar item the Heat can sell Antetokounmpo on is their scouting staff. In the past four years, Miami has drafted Adebayo and Herro outside the top 10 and signed undrafted players like Nunn and Robinson.
2020-21 trade considerations: Past deals have Miami sending Oklahoma City 2021 and 2023 first-round picks. The Heat are not allowed to trade a first until two years after their obligation to the Thunder is met (likely not until 2025). In regard to players, the Heat have two large contracts in Olynyk ($12.6 million) and Iguodala ($15.0 million) along with their young players in Herro, Robinson and Nunn.
The question that would be weighed internally is the benefits of trading for Antetokounmpo vs. attempting to sign him outright in 2021.
Projected room: $43 million
Who returns: Pascal Siakam ($29.5 million), Norman Powell ($11.6 million player option), OG Anunoby ($11.7 million free-agent hold), Matt Thomas ($1.8 million), Terence Davis ($2.1 million free-agent hold), 2020 first-round pick and 2021 first-round pick
Who might be gone: Kyle Lowry (free agent), Patrick McCaw (free agent), Stanley Johnson (free agent) and Dewan Hernandez (waived)
Other charges: Minimum salary adjustment ($5.1 million)
The Raptors would be one of the teams affected if the salary cap remains at $109.1 million. Instead of having $60 million and room to comfortably re-sign 2020 free agent Fred VanVleet, the Raptors would have $43 million in 2021 before factoring in a new VanVleet deal.
Toronto could still have enough room to sign Antetokounmpo even if VanVleet is signed to a four-year, $80 million contract this offseason. However, in order to get to a max slot, Powell would need to opt out of his $11.6 million contract or the Raptors would need to find a trade partner.
2020-21 trade considerations: Setting aside Siakam and VanVleet leaves Toronto with the expiring contract of Lowry along with cap fillers such as Powell and McCaw. Toronto could sign Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol to one-year contracts to move at a later date, but both players would have veto power on any trade due to Bird rights.
The Raptors own all their first-round picks.
Dallas Mavericks
Projected room: $18 million
Who returns: Luka Doncic ($10.1 million), Kristaps Porzingis ($31.7 million), Dwight Powell ($11.1 million), Delon Wright ($8.5 million), Maxi Kleber ($8.8 million), Seth Curry ($8.2 million), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4.0 million), Jalen Brunson ($1.8 million) and 2020 first-round pick
Who might be gone: Tim Hardaway Jr. (free agent), Boban Marjanovic (free agent), Justin Jackson (free agent) and Willie Cauley-Stein (free agent)
Other charges: Minimum salary adjustment ($6.1 million)
The Mavericks would have been sitting on a max slot if the salary cap stayed at $125 million. Instead, they will need to trade $15 million in contracts to create the room to pursue Antetokounmpo. But Dallas does have expiring contracts in Wright ($8.5 million) and Finney-Smith ($4.0 million) along with team-friendly deals in Powell, Curry and Kleber to make the maneuvers possible.
2020-21 trade considerations: It's unlikely given the health concerns and $130 million still left on the contract, but would the Bucks consider an Antetokounmpo-for-Porzingis swap? After Porzingis and, of course, Doncic, the Dallas roster is filled with serviceable role players. The Mavericks are also restricted from sending out draft picks because New York is owed a 2021 unprotected first and 2023 top-10 protected first via Dallas. The earliest Dallas could trade a first would be 2025.
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected room: $16.5 million
Who returns: Anthony Davis ($35.3 million), LeBron James ($41.0 million player option), 2020 first-round and 2021 first-round
Who might be gone: Danny Green (free agent), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (free agent), Avery Bradley (free agent), JaVale McGee (free agent), Kyle Kuzma (free-agent hold renounced), Alex Caruso (free agent), Rajon Rondo (free agent), Talen Horton-Tucker (free agent) and Quinn Cook (free agent)
Other charges: Luol Deng ($5.0 million) and minimum salary adjustment ($7.2 million)
There is a way for the Lakers to get a max slot, but it would come with a financial sacrifice from James. With the Lakers projected to have $16.5 million in room if they renounce the rights to Kuzma, James would have to opt out of his $41 million contract and sign for $24.8 million. The $16.2 million reduction in salary would leave the Lakers with the necessary max cap space.
2020-21 trade considerations: The Lakers depleted their draft assets to acquire Davis. And outside of James and Davis, there are no blue-chip prospects on the roster.
Projected room: $62 million
Who returns: RJ Barrett ($8.6 million), Kevin Knox ($5.8 million), Ignas Brazdeikis ($1.8 million), Mitchell Robinson ($1.8 million), 2020 first-round pick, 2020 first-round pick (from LA Clippers), 2021 first-round pick and 2023 first-round pick (both from Dallas)
Who might be gone: Julius Randle (waived), Dennis Smith Jr. (free agent), Frank Ntilikina (free agent), Bobby Portis (free agent), Theo Pinson (free agent), Taj Gibson (free agent), Wayne Ellington (free agent), Elfrid Payton (free agent) and Reggie Bullock (free agent)
Other charges: Randle ($4.0 million), Joakim Noah ($6.4 million) and minimum salary adjustment ($4.1 million)
We would be foolish not to list the Knicks despite their consistent presence in the lottery. New York projects to have $62 million in room if it remains conservative this offseason. It will sound familiar, but that's enough room to sign two max players.
As history has proved, though, it's the product on the court and not the Madison Square Garden bright lights that will lure marquee free agents. From that perspective, there is plenty of work to do for New York to get into the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
2020-21 trade considerations: The Knicks check all the boxes when it comes to putting together an attractive trade package -- draft picks, young players and expiring contracts. But the cupboard will be bare if Antetokounmpo leaves after one season.
Besides their own first-round picks in every season, the Knicks have the Clippers' first-rounder this year and Mavericks' picks in 2021 and 2023. There are also the expiring contracts of Ellington, Gibson and Payton (if they're not waived) along with the $18.9 million salary of Randle.
Other teams with room in 2021: Barring big moves, the other teams with cap space would be the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs.
Trade partners in 2020-21
Following the Bucks' elimination, Antetokounmpo told Yahoo's Chris Haynes he won't be demanding a trade out of Milwaukee, but that doesn't mean franchises won't be ready to make an offer if Giannis changes that stance before next season's trade deadline.
As with Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis, a supermax offer is null once a player who has met the criteria gets traded. There is the benefit to an acquiring team, though: It would inherit Antetokounmpo's Bird rights, allowing a five-year contract (instead of four), larger annual raises (8% vs. 5%) and the ability to exceed the salary cap.
But this all comes at the risk of sacrificing draft assets and players for a star who could enter free agency in 2021.
The Warriors have $146 million in guaranteed contracts in 2021, not including space allocated for the 2020 No. 2 pick. They do not have a clear path to sign Antetokounmpo as a free agent, and that lack of cap space would give Golden State zero leverage in trying to force a trade.
While there is certainly appeal to the Warriors' pick in this year's draft and the Minnesota Timberwolves' first-rounder in 2021, there is less of an appetite for the $90 million still owed to Andrew Wiggins. And Golden State's own first-rounders in 2021 and 2022 have little value.
Off the table: Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson
Draft assets and trade exceptions
2020 first-round pick (No. 2)
$17.2 million trade exception
2021 first-round pick from Minnesota, top-three protected (unprotected in 2022 if not conveyed)
2021 own first-round pick
2022 own first-round pick
2027 own first-round pick
Note: The Warriors owe Memphis a top-four-protected first in 2024 from the Iguodala trade. The pick has top-one protection in 2025 and is unprotected in 2026. As a result, the Warriors cannot trade a first until two years after that pick is conveyed.
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)
The No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft: $8.7 million; restricted free agent in 2024 (player cannot be traded until 30 days after he signs his contract)
Draymond Green: $22.4 million, player option in 2023-24
Andrew Wiggins: $29.5 million, free agent in 2023
Kevon Looney: $5.2 million, player option in 2021-22
Jordan Poole: $3.2 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Eric Paschall: $1.8 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Complicating factors:
$95 million left on Wiggins' contract
Inability to trade their own first until from 2023 through 2025
$10.8 million Green trade bonus
The Pelicans certainly have the draft assets to put together an appealing package. However, with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram likely off the table, Milwaukee would be staring at two expiring contracts -- Jrue Holiday or JJ Redick -- along with Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Off the table: Williamson and Ingram
Ingram is off the table even if he re-signs as a free agent. The forward would have a minimum three-month trade restriction. The Pelicans can arrange a sign-and-trade with Ingram (if he approves), but base-year compensation would make it nearly impossible to put a package together.
Draft assets
2020 own first-round pick (No. 13)
Own all future first-round picks (2021-27)
2021 first from Lakers (if 1-8); pick becomes unprotected in 2022 if not conveyed
Right to swap first-round picks with Lakers in 2023
2024 first from Lakers (can be deferred to 2025)
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)
Jrue Holiday: $26.0 million, player option in 2021-22
Lonzo Ball: $11.0 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Josh Hart: $3.5 million, restricted free agent in 2021
JJ Redick: $13.0 million, free agent in 2021
Jaxson Hayes: $5.1 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: $3.1 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Nicolo Melli: $3.9 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Darius Miller: $7.0 million (non-guaranteed), free agent in 2021
Complicating factors:
Depleting their assets for one year of Antetokounmpo
The Thunder can top any offer for Antetokounmpo in a trade. Oklahoma City has 13 first-round picks in the next seven years, along with two years in which it can swap with the Clippers. General manager Sam Presti showed he was willing to take a chance in 2017 when he acquired Paul George on an expiring contract. Would that same risk-taking hold true if Antetokounmpo becomes available?
Unlikely with Billy Donovan out as coach, and the early inclinations are that the Thunder will start a retooling of their roster.
Off the table: Nobody
Draft assets
2020 first-round pick from Denver (No. 20)
Own first-rounder in 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027
First-rounder from Miami or Houston (top-four protected) in 2021
First-rounders from the Clippers in 2022, 2024 and 2026
Right to swap pick with the Clippers in 2023
First-rounder from Miami in 2023 (top-14 protected)
First-rounders from Houston in 2024 (top-four protected) and 2026 (top-four protected)
Right to swap pick with Clippers or Houston (top-10 protected) in 2025
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $4.1 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Chris Paul: $41.4 million, player option in 2021-22
Dennis Schroder; $15.5 million, free agent in 2021
Steven Adams: $27.5 million, free agent in 2021
Darius Bazley: $2.4 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Terrance Ferguson: $3.9 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Lu Dort: $1.5 million, team option in 2022
Isaiah Roby: $1.5 million, team option in 2022
Hamidou Diallo: $1.7 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Abdel Nader: $1.8 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021
Complicating factors:
What would be left after cashing in draft assets?
GM Elton Brand made it clear in his end-of-season address with the media that Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are not available in trade talks. Would that change if Antetokounmpo were on the trade block?
Off the table: Nobody
Draft assets
2020 first-round pick from Oklahoma City (No. 21)
Own all future first-round picks (2021-2017)
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)
Ben Simmons: $27.3 million, unrestricted free agent in 2025
Joel Embiid: $29.5 million, unrestricted free agent in 2023
Tobias Harris: $34.4 million, unrestricted free agent in 2024
Al Horford: $27.5 million, unrestricted free agent in 2023
Josh Richardson: $10.9 million, player option in 2021
Matisse Thybulle: $2.7 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Mike Scott: $5.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021
Zhaire Smith: $3.2 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Shake Milton: $1.7 million, team option in 2022
Furkan Korkmaz: $1.8 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021
Norvel Pelle: $1.5 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Complicating factors:
Is Simmons or Embiid available?
$141 million left on Harris' contract
$60 million left on Horford's contract
When a team has a top-five player like Damian Lillard and gets bounced out in the first round of the playoffs, its front office should be looking at all roster options -- including what it would take to acquire Antetokounmpo.
To get their foot in the door, the Blazers' trade package would have to focus around CJ McCollum, Gary Trent Jr. and draft compensation comparable to what the Lakers sent the Pelicans in the AD trade (three first-round picks and a pick swap).
Off the table: Lillard
Draft assets
Own all future first-round picks (2020-2027)
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)
CJ McCollum: $29.4 million, unrestricted free agent in 2024
Jusuf Nurkic: $12.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2022
Zach Collins: $5.4 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Gary Trent Jr.: $1.7 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Rodney Hood: $6.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021 (if he opts in)
Mario Hezonja: $2.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021 (if he opts in)
Trevor Ariza: $12.8 million ($1.8 million guaranteed, fully guaranteed at start of free agency), unrestricted free agent in 2021
Anfernee Simons: $2.3 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Nassir Little: $2.2 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Complicating factors:
Collins' injury history
Is a combination of McCollum, Trent, Nurkic and Collins enough?