Is Stan Van Gundy the right fit for the New Orleans Pelicans?
After two years as a broadcaster, Van Gundy is headed back to the sideline with a plum assignment: guiding the development of 2019 No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson and leading the young Pelicans to the playoffs.
Van Gundy's last stint as head coach, from 2014-15 through 2017-18 in Detroit, ended in disappointment, as the Pistons made the playoffs just once in Van Gundy's four seasons and topped out at 44 wins.
Will he do better in New Orleans? Let's break it down.
Magic a template for Pelicans
Van Gundy's five seasons as head coach of the Orlando Magic were, no doubt, more salient than the Detroit days to executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin as he made this decision. There's a clear parallel between Zion and fellow No. 1 pick Dwight Howard, who was 22 when Van Gundy was hired in Orlando in 2007.
While Howard's potential was evident, he hadn't yet emerged as a 20-PPG scorer or the defensive force he would become, winning Defensive Player of the Year three consecutive seasons after Van Gundy's arrival. The coach nurtured Howard by putting him in the right role -- moving him from power forward to center and surrounding him with four capable shooters.
Though that seems obvious in a modern context, those kinds of lineups were revolutionary 13 years ago, and the Magic were frequently criticized for not having enough size and strength.
Williamson isn't the same player as Howard, particularly at the defensive end of the court, but many of those same lessons will surely apply as Van Gundy looks to help Zion take the next step in his development after a brief but promising rookie campaign.
Defense Van Gundy's focus
In addition to developing Howard, Van Gundy built some of the NBA's best defenses in Orlando. The Magic ranked in the top five in defensive rating in each of Van Gundy's first four seasons and in the top three from 2008-09 through 2010-11, when they reached the Eastern Conference finals twice and the NBA Finals once.
Defense is a clear area of needed improvement for New Orleans, which boasted a league-average offense last season but ranked 21st in defensive rating. Adding a defensive-minded coach made sense for the Pelicans, and that describes Van Gundy. The 11 teams he's coached for a full season have, on average, rated 2.2% better than league average defensively, putting him seventh among active coaches.
New Orleans' defense won't likely look the same as Van Gundy's Magic-era defenses, which were built on preventing high-value attempts at the rim and at the 3-point line. From 2007-08 through 2011-12, Orlando ranked either first or second in the percentage of opposing shots that came in the restricted area around the basket. Simultaneously, by relying on Howard to protect the rim without help from other Magic players, Orlando was able to also rank in the top 10 in the percentage of opponent attempts from 3-point range in 2008-09 (second), 2009-10 (eighth) and 2010-11 (ninth).
Modern floor spacing and the rise of stretch 5s have made protecting both the rim and the 3-point line all but impossible in the NBA, putting a premium on rim defense at the expense of preventing 3s. Though his Detroit defenses weren't as effective, topping out at eighth in defensive rating in 2016-17, Van Gundy showed the ability to adjust. In his last two campaigns with the Pistons, the team ranked first (in 2016-17) and third (in 2017-18) in preventing attempts at the rim while ranking outside the top 10 in preventing 3-point attempts.
Better support for Van Gundy from front office
Van Gundy's Detroit tenure ultimately failed because he was let down by his president of basketball operations -- Stan Van Gundy. In the dual role, Van Gundy too frequently overpaid for proven veterans in free agency, constricting the Pistons' flexibility. As ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported with Andrew Lopez, that won't be an issue in New Orleans. With Griffin in charge of the front office, Van Gundy is strictly being hired to coach.
That said, hiring Van Gundy could be an indication the Pelicans are prioritizing competing now over putting the best pieces around Zion as he comes into his own as a player later, in his mid-20s. An experienced coach like Van Gundy surely won't want to part with veteran guards Jrue Holiday and JJ Redick, both of whom can be free agents next summer. Redick, who's 36, began his career playing for Van Gundy in Orlando and has remained close with his former coach.
It's reasonable for New Orleans to keep the roster mostly intact this summer and see what kind of upgrade Van Gundy and a healthy Williamson can provide in 2020-21. If the Pelicans again end up on the fringe of the playoff race, however, it's incumbent on Griffin to be realistic about the team's direction and seek value for Holiday in particular before he can get away in free agency.
However things play out next season, Van Gundy should benefit from a steady stream of young talent thanks to the Anthony Davis trade last summer. New Orleans has all its own first-round picks going forward plus extra first-rounders from the Lakers in either 2021 or 2022 and either 2024 or 2025.
With a roster featuring both young players with star potential and more depth than his Detroit teams, Van Gundy has the opportunity to remind everyone why he was considered one of the league's best coaches with the Magic. Assuming the Pelicans can maintain the right balance of winning now without sacrificing the future, Van Gundy looks like a strong fit in New Orleans.