Can the Miami Heat make this a competitive NBA Finals?
After a strong start to Wednesday's Game 1, the Heat saw everything come apart quickly. Not only were they outscored by the Los Angeles Lakers 75-30 over an extended stretch during an 18-point loss that wasn't as close as the final score indicated, worse yet Miami saw starters Bam Adebayo (left shoulder strain) and Goran Dragic (left foot) leave the game due to injury. Both are now listed as doubtful for Game 2.
While the Lakers were heavy favorites coming into the series, there was plenty of reason to think the Heat could pull the upset. Miami was favored by FiveThirtyEight's projections, and nearly a third of ESPN's writers and analysts picked the Heat to win the series.
How can Miami still make those projections reality?
MORE: Expert takeaways from Game 1
1. Get healthy
Nothing matters more for the Heat than the health of Dragic, their leading scorer during the postseason, and All-Star Adebayo. Amazingly, Miami actually outscored the Lakers during Dragic's 15 minutes of action before leaving late in the second quarter. What happened afterward can't entirely be attributed to either his injury or Adebayo's (the Heat were outscored by 12 points with Adebayo on the court), but their absence certainly was a large factor in it.
Dragic playing at an All-Star level since the season restarted has been a crucial element of Miami's unexpected run to the NBA Finals. Adebayo has been a stalwart all season long, providing valuable playmaking, rebounding and versatile defense. During the Heat's 12-3 run to the Finals, they were the lone two players on Miami's roster who had seen the team outscored while on the bench, per NBA Advanced Stats. (The Heat were plus-0.8 per 100 possessions without Jimmy Butler, their other All-Star.)
In particular, losing Adebayo or Dragic going forward would take away a dangerous pick-and-roll combo. Only Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets have run more ball screens during the 2020 playoffs than Adebayo and Dragic (209), according to Second Spectrum tracking, and the 1.09 points per chance Miami has averaged on those plays is best among any of their combos with at least 40 opportunities.
Shortly after Game 1, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Dragic suffered a partial tear of the plantar fascia in his left foot. Although he'll continue to be evaluated, that injury will be challenging to play through and would probably limit Dragic's production if he does give it a go.
2. Adjust the rotation
The silver lining to Dragic's injury was the opportunity it provided Kendrick Nunn to play extended minutes in the second half, finishing with 18 points on 8-for-11 shooting. Nunn started all 67 games he played during the regular season, finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting, but hasn't been the same contributor in the playoffs after dealing with a case of COVID-19 prior to the restart.
Remarkably, Game 1 was the first time in the postseason Nunn has scored in double figures after doing so 52 times in the regular season. Assuming Dragic misses time, the Heat will badly need the perimeter spark Nunn provides and in particular his ability to get to the basket off the pick-and-roll -- something that's not a strength for fellow rookie Tyler Herro, who has taken Nunn's minutes during the playoffs. During the regular season, Nunn-Adebayo ball screens were actually more efficient (1.05 points per chance) than Dragic-Adebayo ones (0.97).
If I were coaching Miami, I'd also suggest bringing Kelly Olynyk back to the rotation as the backup center. After Andre Iguodala gave the Heat a huge lift as a backup center during the conference finals, those small lineups struggled to deal with Anthony Davis when Adebayo was out in Game 1. At 6-foot-6, Iguodala is just too undersized to defend Davis, and Miami was minus-20 with Adebayo on the bench in the first half.
Olynyk wasn't as effective as Nunn during an 18-minute run in the second half, but he handed out four assists and helped the Heat be far more competitive. I'd expect Olynyk will get the backup center minutes in Game 2 if Adebayo is able to return, with Iguodala shifting back to forward in place of journeyman Solomon Hill.
3. Don't overreact to the Lakers' hot 3-point shooting
The Lakers' sizzling shooting was part of the reason the Heat were down big before Dragic and Adebayo left the game. Los Angeles made 11 of 17 3-point attempts (65%) during the first half -- as many or more 3s as the Lakers made total in nine of their previous 15 playoff games. That's no reason for Miami to dramatically alter its defensive game plan.
Historically, there has been almost no relationship between how well a team has shot 3-pointers in Game 1 of a series (minimum 20 attempts) and over the remaining games.
Keeping the Lakers out of the paint and forcing them to make 3s remains the Heat's best chance of winning this series. That includes giving another shot to zone defenses that got limited use on Wednesday -- just three possessions of action, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
4. Don't concede unnecessary switches
Because of the problems Davis and LeBron James present in the pick-and-roll game, Miami entered the series with the plan of switching ball screens much of the time. While that's a sensible strategy, the Heat can do a better job of making the Lakers work to get those switches.
Too often, Miami was willing to concede the switch even when the Lakers' pick-and-roll action wasn't actually particularly threatening. That allowed James to hunt more favorable defensive matchups. More than half of his shot attempts and two of his nine assists came after switches.
During the second half, the Heat fought through more screens and worked to rotate after playing more conventional pick-and-roll defense. Though that risks creating more open 3s for the Lakers, it might be Miami's best option going forward.
If Dragic is limited or unavailable because of his plantar fascia injury, the Heat face an uphill battle to winning the series and even extending it. Still, it's worth remembering that the Lakers' path to the Finals has shown how misleading Game 1 of a series can be. They lost Game 1 against both Portland and Houston before sweeping the remaining four games of those matchups, and though Denver won just one game in the conference finals, the series was far more competitive than the Lakers' easy Game 1 win portended.
By tightening things up and benefiting from regression to the mean by the Lakers' outside shooters, Miami can perform better than what we saw Wednesday.