As we start the 2020 NBA playoffs with four games Monday (ESPN, starting at 1:30 p.m. ET), one thing is very different about this postseason: No team will have a natural home-court advantage.
Does that mean we will see more upsets? If so, which favorites are most in danger to be knocked out?
Each year I evaluate all the playoff series based on both player and team factors, as explained below.
Using that system, let's rank the series from least likely to most likely upsets.
MORE: 2020 NBA Playoffs schedule
The system
As usual, I've projected the likelihood of the lower seed winning for each series.
This projection is based on four factors:
1. Ratings for each team, using players' multiyear ratings in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM)
2. My estimates for player rotations and minutes
3. The outcome of this year's season series between the two teams
4. The difference in playoff experience (career minutes played by players expected to play in the series)
Will playing on neutral courts promote upsets?
I studied this question back before the NBA's restart format was finalized and found that while the setting would make home-court advantage less important in close matchups, it might actually hurt the chances of big upsets.
That counterintuitive result can be explained by the fact that heavy underdogs are more likely to be competitive on their home court than a neutral site. So we might see both more sweeps and more upsets than usual.
Does home-court advantage matter at all for a postseason played on neutral courts? Teams certainly haven't approached the seeding games as if they cared about having the "home court" in the bubble, often sitting starters or limiting their minutes, even with an opportunity to claim a top-four seed.
This was most dramatic in the case of the Miami Heat, who could have finished fourth by beating the Indiana Pacers head-to-head in Friday's season finale, but opted to start 40-year-old Udonis Haslem in a 109-92 loss that handed the Pacers the higher seed.
Remarkably, "home" teams in seeding games went 49-39 (.557) with an average margin of victory of 1.6 points per 48 minutes -- not dramatically down from the home-court advantage of 2.2 points per 48 minutes in games played at home arenas this season.
That might seem easy to chalk up to randomness over a small sample size. However, other evidence is pointing in the same direction. "Home" teams are an even better 38-25 (.603) with a 2.5 margin of victory at the WNBA's neutral site in Bradenton, Florida.
I also analyzed neutral-site games played internationally since 1996-97 and found that while home teams have gone just 13-14 in those games, when adjusted for teams' season-long point differentials, home-court advantage has been 1.0 point per game. (For whatever reason, the home teams abroad have tended to be weaker than the road teams.)
Given all that evidence, I tend to suspect there's something real here. That said, whatever home-court advantage exists is probably not big enough to move the needle in a playoff series -- particularly given home court really only can be said to make the difference when they go the full seven games. If we assume a home-court advantage of one point per game, that swings the odds in an otherwise 50-50 series to 51-49 in favor of the higher seed.
The least likely upsets
Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Orlando Magic (8)
Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Brooklyn Nets (7)
Los Angeles Lakers (1) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (8)
Upset probability: <5%
All three of these series fall into the range where we've never seen such a substantial upset based on my criteria for evaluating matchups. That's not surprising in the case of the top two East series, generally agreed to be massive mismatches. Implied odds from the opening series prices at the Caesars Sportsbook give the Bucks a 99.3% chance to beat the Magic and the Raptors a 98% chance of beating the Nets.
That the Lakers' first-round matchup against Portland would qualify is a bit more surprising. There's been plenty of buzz about the Lakers being vulnerable to an upset after struggling offensively in seeding games (their 102.6 offensive rating ranked 20th of the 22 teams, ahead of only the Oklahoma City Thunder among playoff-bound squads).
Certainly, a Blazers-Lakers matchup looks more competitive than one against the inexperienced Memphis Grizzlies would have. Still, the Lakers' experience advantage is a huge edge even against a Portland team that reached the conference finals last year. LeBron James alone (10,049) has played more playoff minutes than the entire active Blazers roster (7,238).
It's also worth noting that the Lakers have a chance to get well offensively against a Blazers team that ranked 20th in defensive rating in seeding games. Portland held just one opponent to fewer than 114 points per 100 possessions, as compared to a league average of 109.9. Yes, Damian Lillard has led the Blazers' offense to great heights, but they need to provide some defensive resistance to have any chance at the upset.
LA Clippers (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7)
Upset probability: 7%
I picked the Mavericks as potential playoff dark horses with an important caveat: They needed to avoid a first-round matchup against the Clippers. Well, here we are.
Although the two teams were separated by just 1.5 points per game in terms of point differential, the other factors all point toward the Clippers making relatively quick work of Dallas.
They swept the season series 3-0, including a 15-point seeding win without Patrick Beverley or Montrezl Harrell available, and they have a huge experience edge against a team with four rotation players (stars Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, plus key role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber) making their NBA playoff debuts.
The most likely upsets
Boston Celtics (3) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (6)
Upset probability: 20%
This series would have projected differently if Ben Simmons were healthy. Without him, the Sixers seem to have less chance to carry over their 3-1 season series win to the playoffs because RPM does not project their rotation to be remotely as strong as the Celtics' lineups.
Houston Rockets (4) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (5)
Upset probability: 35% (or 45%)
The implied odds have a similar result: OKC with a 38% chance to win the series.
For Houston, I'm projecting 10 minutes per game from Russell Westbrook under the assumption he may be able to return late in the series. If he's unable to play at all, replacing those minutes and subtracting his playoff experience (3,720 career minutes) would reduce the Rockets' projection from a 65% to 55% win probability.
Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Utah Jazz (6)
Upset probability: 50%
The most interesting result from this model in the first round is Nuggets-Jazz, considered a true tossup despite Denver's 3-0 sweep of the season series. All three games were close, including a double-OT matchup in the seeding games, with the Nuggets winning by a combined 11 points. That's emblematic of Denver's season, as the Nuggets managed to snag third in the West with the conference's sixth-best point differential (plus-2.1 ppg), putting them just behind Utah.
With Bojan Bogdanovic out for the season and Mike Conley unavailable for at least the first two games of the series after leaving the team for the birth of his son, oddsmakers have installed Denver as heavy favorites. Predictive RPM ratings don't agree, as the Nuggets are shorthanded themselves, at least for the start of the series, without starting wings Will Barton and Gary Harris.
Neither team played well in seeding games while sitting its usual starters. Without Bogdanovic, the Jazz's depth was severely tested. With four or five of their current starters on the court, they outscored opponents by 16.5 points per 100 possessions. With three or fewer starters, Utah was outscored by 13.7 points per 100 possessions. Denver had the opposite issue, with its makeshift starting five (Jamal Murray, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic) outscored by 11 points in 50 minutes of action.
I picked Denver, because I suspect full-season RPM is underrating Porter's development and it's possible Barton and Harris will return, but this series may be closer than it looks.
Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Miami Heat (5)
Upset probability: 76%
Miami showed no preference for being the 4-seed, leading to this projection: an "upset" that's not really an upset. The implied odds have the Heat at 73% likely to win, similar to what my model suggests.
The Heat have the advantage in all three categories of my projections. Miami won the season series 3-1, with the lone Pacers win coming Friday with few starters on the court. Miami's 114-92 victory last Monday seems more likely to indicate how this series might go.