It's time for NBA playoff action from the bubble at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Florida. So which side of the odds should you be on?
Betting experts Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Joe Fortenbaugh offer their best bets for the postseason.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
First-round series picks
No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic under 4.5 games (-121)
(At DraftKings)
Johnson: I'm not sure if we are getting a discount on the Bucks sweep proposition
No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Brooklyn Nets over 4.5 games (-107)
(At DraftKings)
Result: Raptors win series, 4-0
Kezirian: This is essentially a wager on whether Brooklyn can avoid a sweep. On paper, the Nets have a couple decent players alongside no-names. But I have been impressed with their effort and execution. They're 5-3 in the bubble, including victories over the mighty Bucks and Clippers. I realize the playoffs present a higher level of intensity, but let's not necessarily assume a focused Raptors squad if they lead 3-0. Brooklyn is frisky and has shot the ball extremely well from downtown. I'll ride with the Nets.
No. 3 Boston Celtics -1.5 games (-148) vs. No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers
(At DraftKings)
Result: Celtics win series, 4-0
Kezirian: I have made a case in this ESPN.com section as to why I think the Sixers were worth a play to win it all. However, the injury to Ben Simmons does affect my opinion -- because I already thought Boston had a great chance to survive the East. The Celtics have the considerably better coach in this matchup and a more well-rounded team. I applaud Philly for uncovering Shake Milton, but the Celtics have more weapons and a stronger offense. In fact, the C's rank fourth in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I see Boston prevailing in fewer than seven games.
No. 3 Denver Nuggets (-220) over No. 6 Utah Jazz (+185)
Johnson: The bet here is fairly price-driven for me. A playoff series in a bubble where every game is played on a neutral court simplifies things. I project the Nuggets to win a game against the Jazz about 60% of the time. Over the course of a seven-game series, that equates to a 71% chance Denver has to move out of the first round, or a break-even price of -245. This is the most significant edge I have in the opening round, and I've bet the Nuggets side accordingly.
Outside of the discounted price, it was extremely comforting to see Denver perform so well in the restart games despite missing three starters for the majority of them. Michael Porter Jr. showed he can be relied on as a secondary scorer, at the very least. He raises their ceiling as a team as Jamal Murray and Will Barton make their returns to the lineup as well.
On the other side, the Jazz struggled to figure out life without Bojan Bogdanovic. Their lack of depth was already a concern (which is why they traded for Jordan Clarkson in December), and it was amplified even more in the restart games. Rudy Gobert has been the force that drives the Utah defense in recent years, but Nikola Jokic has put that to bed, in recent games anyway (30 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists when they met in February, and 31-11-7 in the bubble matchup, both Denver wins). Jokic can run the offense and make plays from behind the 3-point line, while Gobert typically prefers to sag off in the paint and help protect the rim. If the Utah advantage on defense is thwarted in the Jokic-Gobert matchup, then the Jazz will have to try and outscore Denver -- and I can't envision their roster being able to do that four out of seven times.
No. 4 Houston Rockets (-160) over No. 5 Oklahoma City Thunder (+140)
Johnson: I thought I would be unloading the bankroll on the Thunder in this series when some early markets opened the series price OKC +320. That didn't last long, and with Russell Westbrook out for at least the start of the series the market has settled in at a number that now, in my opinion, is too cheap on the Rockets side. -160 implies a 61.5% win probability for Houston, and while it is a little more nuanced with Westbrook's status as the series progresses, I have Houston advancing closer to 65% of the time assuming Westbrook returns after three games.
I made similar arguments the past few days about the Thunder's ability to defend the 3-pointer (third-best in the NBA) and the fact that the Rockets shoot more 3's than anybody else in the league. Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and even Andre Roberson can be impactful defenders in isolation against James Harden. Steven Adams should dominate the glass against the small-ball lineups Houston puts out on the floor.
Despite all of that, the best-of-seven series often just becomes a math problem. The Thunder attempt the 27th-fewest 3-pointers and rely heavily on midrange jumpers. They have the personnel to pull it off relative to most of the league, but again, midrange shots are only worth two points. The Rockets take the fewest midrange shots in the NBA and lead the league in 3-pointers attempted (by a massive margin). Harden plus four shooters might even be more deadly offensively than Harden plus three shooters and Westbrook. This season Houston's offensive rating was 112.9, but it was 118.3 (97th percentile league-wide) with Harden on the floor without Westbrook.
I think we often lose sight of how good Harden really is because the Rockets' offense comes across as gimmicky. The series will likely be close, and I also bet over 5.5 games played, but the price tag for Houston is cheap now, and I'll be zigging while others seem to be zagging.
Playoff futures
LA Clippers to win the NBA championship (+300)
Fortenbaugh: The Clippers boast a championship pedigree courtesy of Kawhi Leonard and coach Doc Rivers, have the best bench in the league (50.3 PPG, first in the NBA) and are a top-five outfit in both offensive and defensive efficiency. What's not to like here? While the Lakers stumbled through the seeding round, their Los Angeles counterparts went 5-3 while scoring 120 or more points five times. Rested, healthy and ready to go, this is the L.A. franchise the eventual Eastern Conference champion should be worried about.
Clippers to win Western Conference (+170)
Kezirian: The Clippers are the West's best team now that Montrezl Harrell has returned. I say that with confidence because the Lakers have looked extremely disjointed and the losses of Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo are apparent.
The Lakers lean way too much on LeBron James and Anthony Davis. While they are superstars, I just do not believe the scoring is sustainable when facing a comparable opponent like the Clippers. I would be quite surprised if the Clippers do not reach the NBA Finals. Their depth and Rivers' experience are just too much to overcome for a short-handed Lakers squad.
Johnson: Prior to the restart, I projected the Clippers to win the NBA title 27.1% of the time. After accounting for the bubble data and the Lakers losing Bradley and Rondo, I now see the Clippers hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy 30.6% of the time. The Lakers had the worst offensive efficiency in the eight bubble games and finished 21st of 22 teams in net efficiency overall. I know everyone wants to point to the Lakers, primarily James, as being able to flip a switch when it truly matters, but the Clippers are just so much better players 3 through 9 in the rotation that I don't think it will even matter.
I show a slightly bigger edge just going the Western Conference route at Caesars at +170 versus the championship future, but shop around -- there are plenty of +200s in the market for the West proposition. Even if you think these teams are closely matched, the fact that the market is offering such better value on the Clippers' side and forcing you to pay a premium on the Lakers should, at the very least, keep you from betting the purple and gold.
Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (+375)
Fortenbaugh: The Celtics won 15 of their final 21 games before the shutdown and then entered the bubble and picked up exactly where they left off, winning five of eight, with signature victories against Portland and Toronto. Boston is extremely well coached under Brad Stevens, ranks in the top four in the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency and has an abundance of star power led by Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker. Additionally, I'm not buying the Milwaukee hype. Are the Bucks -- who flamed out in the Eastern Conference finals last year -- any better this time around?
Johnson: I was bullish on the Sixers' potential in the East having Simmons back from injury for the restart and delayed playoffs. Well, now Simmons is hurt again. So a portion of my Sixers-to-win-the-East projection that declines goes to the Bucks, but the next-biggest beneficiary is the Celtics.
I had Boston rated slightly better than Toronto prior to the restart, and the Celtics have looked the part since. They just dismantled the Raptors in a bubble matchup, and I expect to see more of the same in a future semifinal battle. Boston's biggest weakness is rim protection (Daniel Theis, Enes Kanter, Robert Williams III and Grant Williams are their bigs), but Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka play out on the perimeter setting screens and shooting jumpers. Maybe Pascal Siakam can attack and take advantage of this weakness some, but he just isn't the same force Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid could be in that regard. Toronto also loses out on what would have been home-court advantage in a normal situation.
The Bucks will clearly be the biggest test, but they just haven't looked themselves since the restart. Milwaukee was already taking the biggest hit, losing home court through the playoffs and losing out on the rest advantage it had built up over the course of the regular season. Boston almost beat Milwaukee in their first restart game in a contest Tatum shot 2-for-18 from the field. Antetokounmpo will always be a force, but the Celtics were able to limit him, within reason. Can they do it four tries out of seven?
They're an underdog for a reason. But I think Boston is more live now than ever in the East, and I currently project the Celtics to win it 24.9% of the time, or a fair price of +302. The +375 is value at Caesars, and I've seen this in even the +500s across multiple books in the market.
Game 1 picks
No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Miami Heat under 217 points
Tuesday result: Heat 113, Pacers 101
Fortenbaugh: Indiana ranks 22nd in pace and Miami checks in at 27th, so we're not about to watch the Pacers and Heat fly up and down the floor for 48 minutes on Tuesday. What we hope to enjoy is a grindfest between two clubs that ranked in the top 12 in defensive efficiency this season (Indiana was sixth, Miami 12th). No team attempted fewer 3-pointers this season than Indiana (28.0 per game), which is an added plus here.
No. 3 Nuggets vs. No. 6 Jazz over 217.5 points
Monday result: Nuggets 135, Jazz 125 (OT)
Fortenbaugh: This total has dropped far enough since opening at 220.5 that I feel a play on the over is now warranted. For starters, Utah isn't the same team we remember from last season, as the Jazz watched their defensive rating decline from second in the NBA to 13th in one year's time, while the club's offensive rating has jumped from 14th to ninth. Further, the Jazz surrendered a lofty 116.5 points per game during their eight-game dash through the seeding round.
On the flip side, Denver has undergone a similar transition over the past year, dropping from 10th to 16th in defensive rating while climbing from seventh to fifth in offensive rating. Hold your nose because this one won't be pretty, but the over is my preferred travel destination.