Will Damian Lillard's scoring spree lead his Portland Trail Blazers to the playoffs?
And what about the 7-0 Phoenix Suns? Will they pull the surprise in this four-team race with the Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs?
How good are each team's chances of getting to the play-in and winning? And who are they most likely to face?
I've projected the outcome of the four remaining games for these teams using the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), factoring in what to expect from their opponents Thursday.
Let's look at how the West play-in race will go heading into the final set of games.
Portland Trail Blazers
• Finish eighth in 73% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 14% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 62% of simulations
It's difficult to overstate the magnitude of Tuesday's game for Portland. Lillard's 61 points helped carry the Blazers past the Dallas Mavericks in a 134-131 thriller, moving Portland into eighth in the Western Conference and giving the Blazers a chance to assure that spot with a win in Thursday's seeding games finale against the Brooklyn Nets.
Had the Blazers lost Tuesday, they would have needed help just to make the play-in tournament. With the win, they're heavy favorites to enter the play-in eighth.
If they do finish eighth going into Saturday, they'll need just one win out of two games to advance to the playoffs. Given Portland also has the best RPM projection of this group, the Blazers will be tough to beat if they finish eighth -- particularly with Lillard's efforts such a regular feature.
Portland's path gets much more complicated with a loss Thursday to the Nets, who beat Orlando on Tuesday despite sitting Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris, Caris LeVert and Garrett Temple to go to 5-2 in seeding play. In that case, the Blazers would need two of the other three teams to lose to finish ninth, and could still finish eighth if every team involved in the play-in race loses.
Memphis Grizzlies
• Finish eighth in 12% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 43% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 19% of simulations
Having lost the 3½-game lead over Portland they held entering the restart, the Grizzlies have just about run out of margin for error. A win Thursday over the Milwaukee Bucks would assure them a spot in the play-in matchup, and get them up to eighth if the Blazers also lose, but a win is no sure thing even with Milwaukee long having claimed the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
As John Hollinger of The Athletic noted on Twitter, Mike Budenholzer might have given an indication about his plans for Thursday with his lineup for Tuesday's game against the Washington Wizards. The Bucks started Giannis Antetokounmpo but sat out four perimeter players, suggesting they might flip that on Thursday. Given how Memphis has struggled in the restart, going 1-6 so far, it's not clear the Grizzlies should be heavily favored over a Milwaukee team that has played well with Giannis off the court this season.
Even with a loss, Memphis would still make the playoffs if both the Suns and the Spurs also lost their seeding finales.
Phoenix Suns
• Finish eighth in 8% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 21% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 13% of simulations
The Blazers' win means it's now possible that Phoenix could go 8-0 in seeding games and still be out if both Memphis and Portland win their finales. For the Suns not to get a chance to put a perfect restart record on the line in the play-in would be a huge disappointment, but also illustrative of how big a hole they dug themselves before arriving at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.
Phoenix's chances of winning Thursday did get a boost with Dallas' loss. The Mavericks are now locked into the seventh seed in the West and will have nothing to play for in that game, making it more likely the Suns get a small dose, if any, of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. That doesn't guarantee a victory -- Dallas beat a Utah Jazz team that limited the minutes of their starters without Doncic and Porzingis on Monday -- but certainly benefits the Suns.
With a win, Phoenix still has a chance to get all the way up to eighth with losses by both the Blazers and Grizzlies.
San Antonio Spurs
• Finish eighth in 7% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 22% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 7% of simulations
Much like Phoenix, San Antonio should face an easier finale because of the Mavericks' loss. That assured the Jazz can't fall to seventh with a loss Thursday, meaning for the second time in eight seeding games, the Spurs will probably see players who got more minutes for the Salt Lake City Stars than in the NBA this season.
A win won't be enough for San Antonio to extend the NBA's longest active postseason streak to 23 years. The Spurs also need two of the other three teams involved in the play-in race to lose, and can climb to eighth only if all three of them do.