When the NBA playoffs start next week, what matchups can we expect?
In the Western Conference, no matchup is set -- and only one seed has been determined, with the Los Angeles Lakers clinching the top spot. The Lakers won't find out their opponent until this weekend, when the eighth seed will be determined by a play-in between the teams that finish eighth and ninth. Who's likely to emerge as the Lakers' foe, and where will other teams end up?
In the East, three teams are still determining the playoff matchups.
I've rerun 1,000 simulations of the remaining games based on player ratings in the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus and adjusting rotations given what we know about teams sitting starters.
Let's take a look at the matchups and how they might play out.
Grizzlies, Blazers favored for play-in
As discussed in greater detail in our latest update on the play-in race, the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers can set up a play-in matchup with one win for the Grizzlies and two for the Blazers.
The 6-0 Phoenix Suns and the San Antonio Spurs are lurking, poised to take advantage if either Memphis or Portland stumbles.
Besides simply making the play-in matchup, finishing eighth instead of ninth is crucial because the team that enters the play-in tournament in eighth place can end it with one win. The team that finishes ninth must win both matchups on back-to-back days, Saturday and Sunday, to advance to the playoffs.
Grizzlies still most likely Lakers opponent
Despite a 1-5 record so far in seeding games, Memphis remains the most likely No. 8 seed for a couple of reasons. First, the Grizzlies' half-game lead on the Blazers makes them more certain to reach the play-in matchup. Second, Memphis is more likely to carry the advantage of being No. 8 into the play-in. But even if the Grizzlies remain favored in this four-team race, the projections show them as likely to reach the playoffs less than 50% of the time.
Though Portland would be favored in a single matchup, the Blazers did need overtime to outlast the Grizzlies when the teams met in their seeding opener. Memphis has since lost Jaren Jackson Jr. to a season-ending meniscus injury, but the Grizzlies could have backup point guard Tyus Jones in the lineup by this weekend. Jones' absence was acutely felt in that first game, as the Grizzlies outscored Portland by four with starting point guard Ja Morant on the court but were minus-9 in about 12 minutes with Morant on the bench.
Despite suffering a 17-point loss in Memphis back in February, the Lakers would surely welcome the Grizzlies as a playoff opponent instead of a more experienced Blazers team that beat them in Staples Center behind 48 points from Damian Lillard in L.A.'s first game after Kobe Bryant's death. Facing a Phoenix team that would likely be 10-0 during the restart -- the Suns probably need to win out to make the play-in matchup, and they would most likely still go in ninth and need two more victories to reach the playoffs -- isn't ideal, either.
Still, it's worth remembering the Lakers would be heavy favorites against any of the four potential opponents. Albeit without the injured Jusuf Nurkic, Portland didn't beat a team nearly as good during the regular season en route to last year's Western Conference finals as this year's Lakers have been. And as incredible as the Blazers' top-ranked offense has been in seeding games, their defense (ranked 20th on a per-possession basis) has been nearly as bad.
Elsewhere in the West, the Lakers' narrow win over the Denver Nuggets on Monday night helped clarify the race for second and third. The Nuggets will now need to beat the LA Clippers on Wednesday, win their finale and have the Clippers lose theirs to pass them for second in the West.
Houston could still catch Denver for third by winning out and having the Nuggets lose out, but that doesn't seem like a high priority for the Rockets, who will sit James Harden on Tuesday in the front end of back-to-back games. Most likely, Houston is headed for fourth, and nobody seems particularly interested in claiming the fifth seed to face the Rockets.
Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz have sat starters in recent losses. The Jazz would probably rather play anybody else than Houston after losing to the Rockets in each of the past two postseasons, while Oklahoma City has the incentive of keeping its first-round pick, which is top-20 protected. (The Thunder currently keep the pick in 29% of simulations.)
The last drama in the West is whether the Dallas Mavericks can move up from seventh -- and avoid a likely matchup with the Clippers -- by winning out while Utah or Oklahoma City loses out. Dallas could still get as high as fifth if all three of those things happen.
East matchups nearly set
All that's left to decide in the East is fourth through sixth, and the Miami Heat all but assured themselves of either fourth or fifth -- the difference is largely moot -- with Monday's lopsided win over the Indiana Pacers. To drop to sixth, the Heat would need to lose out while both Indiana and the Philadelphia 76ers (currently sixth) win out.
The Sixers stand a slightly better chance of catching the Pacers, who are only a half-game up but hold the tiebreaker. If Indiana splits its final two games (against Houston and a rematch with Miami), Philadelphia winning out would do the trick. Or the Sixers could go 2-1 and finish fifth if the Pacers lose their last two. However, even that looks like a tall order with Ben Simmons likely out for the season and fellow All-Star Joel Embiid already ruled out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix due to a left ankle injury.
Most likely, then, we'll get Indiana and Miami as the 4-5 matchup, with Boston and Philadelphia as the 3-6 in the East.