What have the results so far meant to the NBA playoff races? What about the play-in tournament picture?
We're in the first weekend of the restart, and already there have been some important matchups to determine where teams will finish in the Eastern Conference and Western Conference playoff standings.
For new predictions, I've run 1,000 simulations of the remaining games based on projected rotations and player ratings in the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus.
Let's take a look at the new forecast.
Blazers now favored to reach West play-in
The first three days of seeding games couldn't have gone much better for the Portland Trail Blazers, who hope to salvage an injury-marred season by qualifying for a seventh consecutive playoff appearance through the play-in matchup.
Friday's restart opener against the Memphis Grizzlies was Portland's most important of the eight seeding games, representing a two-game swing in the standings relative to the current No. 8 seed. After a taut fourth quarter during which both teams led in the final minute, the Blazers pulled away in overtime, scoring the first 11 points of the extra session in a 140-135 win that moved them to within 2½ games of the Grizzlies.
In addition to staying within four games of Memphis in the standings, Portland also has to stay ahead of the other four Western Conference teams vying for a spot in the play-in matchup. And the Blazers have gotten all the results they've wanted in that regard, too.
The New Orleans Pelicans, who entered the restart as favorites to finish ninth (ahead of Portland), lost their first two games, to the Utah Jazz and the LA Clippers, respectively. And Friday the San Antonio Spurs knocked off the Sacramento Kings, who entered a game closer to Portland in the standings.
The sum of all those results is the Blazers now advance to the play-in matchup more often than any other team except Memphis in my simulations. Not only that, there's a realistic chance that Portland could pass Memphis and actually enter the play-in matchup in eighth, which would mean needing to win only one of the two play-in games to reach the playoffs.
Despite their listless performance in Saturday's blowout loss to the Clippers, don't write off the Pelicans just yet. Remember, they were a Brandon Ingram 3-pointer away from beating the Jazz on Thursday, a result that would have kept them in pole position for ninth in the West. We knew all along New Orleans' schedule would get progressively easier after a difficult start. None of its final six games is against a team with a .500 record or better. And Zion Williamson will surely improve his conditioning as he gets more games and practices under his belt after nearly two weeks off the court.
Still, the Pelicans had better figure out things soon. Monday's game against the Grizzlies will be crucial for their chances of catching the Blazers and staying in the chase.
San Antonio seemed to be preparing for the future during the restart, with a trio of young guards (Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Lonnie Walker IV) joining DeMar DeRozan in a tiny starting lineup with Jakob Poeltl replacing the injured LaMarcus Aldridge in the middle. But Friday's victory allowed the Spurs to hopscotch New Orleans and Sacramento into 10th in the West, meaning San Antonio can no longer be discounted as a play-in possibility.
East play-in still unlikely
Despite a noncompetitive performance against the Orlando Magic in the debut of their makeshift lineup, the Brooklyn Nets still are in good position to avoid a play-in matchup in the Eastern Conference because the Washington Wizards couldn't capitalize on a strong opportunity to get one of the two wins they'll need for a play-in. The Wizards were kept at arm's length by the Phoenix Suns throughout a 125-112 loss Friday.
Brooklyn and Washington will meet Sunday in what's effectively a must-win for the Wizards if they want to force a play-in matchup. If the Nets win, Washington must go at least 3-3 the remainder of the seeding schedule to get to within four games in the standings of either Brooklyn or Orlando.
West playoff seeds in flux
Losses Saturday by the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz threw the West seeding picture from No. 3 to No. 6 into complete chaos. Just a game and a half now separates the third-place Nuggets from the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder, who are tied for fifth. The four teams could finish in just about any order, though we have more clarity that the Dallas Mavericks probably will remain seventh after their overtime loss to Houston on Friday.
Sixers in sixth means showdown with Celtics
In the East, the most important game so far was Saturday's showdown between the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers, who entered tied for fifth. Behind T.J. Warren's 53-point explosion, the Pacers knocked off the Sixers, clinching the head-to-head tiebreaker in the process. Philadelphia will now need two more wins than Indiana during the rest of the seeding games to pass the Pacers. Though the Sixers' schedule is favorable, that's still a challenging proposition.
With the Miami Heat also winning Saturday, Philadelphia now looks most likely to finish sixth in the East. That's not thrilling news for the Boston Celtics, who went 1-3 against the 76ers during the regular season. Boston is also more solidly locked into third after losing to the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday, in combination with the Toronto Raptors knocking off the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night.