The New York Knicks essentially started their offseason in early March when they hired Leon Rose to run basketball operations. Now, almost five months later, Rose's first big move is the hiring of head coach Tom Thibodeau. Both are tasked with turning around a Knicks team that has not made the playoffs since 2013.
But New York checks the boxes when it comes to rebuilding: cap flexibility, young players and draft assets.
Let's look ahead to the free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing New York this coming offseason.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected.
MORE: Biggest trade, free agency and draft decisions for every eliminated NBA team
The draft: Three picks in top 38
For Rose, the first major opportunity to shape the Knicks' roster starts on Oct. 16 with the draft.
New York has three picks in the top 38 with which it can add to its collection of young players or look to trade for future assets and players ready to contribute now. With weeks to go before the draft, Rose and his new staff will have a thorough process that includes virtual interviews, background checks and medical and psychological evaluations. (One thing not mentioned is individual workouts. New York will have to rely on scouting reports from the season and study each prospect on video).
The draft prep will leave the Knicks with the following questions to sort out:
Are we comfortable staying at No. 8?
What is the cost of moving into the top three, and is it worth it?
In trade talks, are the future first-round picks (2021 and 2023) from Dallas on the table or not?
With our lottery pick, do we draft for need or take the best available prospect?
Is it worth exploring packaging No. 27 and No. 38 to move up into the late teens?
Do we trade out of the second round for future assets?
Should a team with six players age 25 or under keep all three picks?
Free agency: Cap flexibility vs. their own players
The Knicks are in the same situation as they were last offseason: with a young nucleus, the possibility of having the No. 1 pick and the ability to create up to $50 million in cap space (if the cap stays at the projected $115 million). The difference is that unlike last year, when Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant were free agents, this year's top prospects are not franchise players or at an All-Star level.
Last year, the Knicks had a clear canvas to work from with cap space, but this offseason will require them to make decisions on their own players to create flexibility. New York can return the same roster (with three draft picks added) that won 21 of 66 games (a 27-win season over 82 games) or go into free agency with $25-50 million of room. The Knicks' cap flexibility would shrink if they elect to bring back free agent Maurice Harkless.
While there is an appeal to having cap space, especially with a new front office, all five players could serve as placeholders until summer 2021 and also as valuable expiring contracts.
Below are the decisions that New York faces and how they will impact the roster:
Bobby Portis | $15.8 million | Team option
Portis is the only player on the roster who played in all 66 games in 2019-20. In those games, 57% of his possessions were played at the center position. He had a minus-7.9 net rating while on the court (the Knicks as a team had a minus-6.5 net rating) and ranked in the bottom half in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus.
Portis' $15.8 million team option has to be exercised by Oct. 17.
Taj Gibson | $8.0 million | $1 million guaranteed
Wayne Ellington | $8.0 million | $1 million guaranteed
Elfrid Payton | $8.0 million | $1 million guaranteed
Reggie Bullock | $4.2 million | $1 million guaranteed
Ellington was considered a buyout candidate in February and shot a career-worst 35.1% from the field in only 15.5 minutes per night.
Gibson averaged career lows with 6.1 points and 16.5 minutes per game but has value on and off the court. The 35-year-old played for Thibodeau in Chicago and Minnesota.
Payton has missed 61 games in the past two seasons to various injuries. However, when he was in the lineup this season, the 26-year-old averaged a team-high 7.2 assists and 1.6 steals. Payton has value as a starter or a backup, especially on an $8.0 million expiring contract.
Bullock missed the first 33 games because of injury. In the 29 games he played (19 starts), the wing averaged 8.1 points in 23.6 minutes. His 33.3% from 3 was the third lowest in his career.
These four players have an Oct. 17 deadline (3 p.m. ET) for their remaining protections to become guaranteed. Unlike Portis, who would become a free agent if his option is declined, each of the four players would need to go through waivers with the possibility of getting claimed. Retaining all five would see New York enter free agency with 15 players on the roster.
Young draft picks on the roster: Time for patience
First, let me acknowledge that I am a big proponent of player development and not giving up on draft picks, even if they have been inconsistent during their rookie contracts. Not every lottery pick or player selected in the draft walks into the perfect situation -- most face some type of turmoil (coaches getting fired, lack of veteran leadership, etc.).
A case in point is what occurred in Phoenix with Josh Jackson. After two inconsistent seasons (and some off-the-court issues) under three coaches, the 2017 No. 4 pick was jettisoned to Memphis last offseason in a salary-cap dump. Then, after a 26-game G League stint -- a period that rebuilt him on and off the court -- the 23-year-old (yes, only 23) found structure in Memphis.
How this relates to the Knicks and their young players is simple. Since the 2017 draft, when Frank Ntilikina was drafted eighth overall, New York has had three head coaches in as many years; Thibodeau would be the fourth next year. The same could be said for former Dallas Mavericks point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who was taken right after Ntilikina in 2017.
RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox II and Ignas Brazdeikis will be going on their third head coach in two years. With the slate wiped clean for new management and the new coaching staff, the Knicks should take a conservative approach on what the future holds for each player. If they don't, a player like Knox could be the next Jackson -- but for another team.
Offseason cap breakdown
New York's cap flexibility will come down to what the Knicks elect to do with the $43 million in non-guaranteed money tied up in six contracts. Gibson ($9.45 million), Ellington ($8 million), Payton ($8 million) and Bullock ($4.2 million) have $1 million guaranteed each, with the balance becoming fully protected if they are on the roster past Oct. 17. Portis ($15.8 million) and Theo Pinson ($1.7 million) have team options that New York has to decide on by Oct. 17.
If the Knicks wipe the roster clean and let all five players go, the team could have up to $50 million in room. The Knicks can retain Payton, Bullock and Gibson and still have $29 million in cap space.
If the Knicks are over the cap, they will have $9.8 million midlevel and $3.8 million biannual exceptions. If they stay below the cap, they will have the $5 million room midlevel exception.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft: two first-round picks and one second (via Charlotte)
The potential of up to $50 million in cap space
One-year veteran expiring contracts (if not waived): Payton, Ellington, Gibson, Bullock and Portis
The young core: Barrett, Ntilikina, Smith, Knox and Mitchell Robinson
$4.8 million room exception
$5.6 million cash to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The extended season is buying the Knicks an additional 3½ months in deciding what the future holds for Payton, Bullock, Ellington, Gibson and Portis.
Portis has a $15.8 million team option that can be exercised no later than Oct. 17. The other four players have $1 million in salary protections that become fully guaranteed if they are on the roster past the 17th.
• There will not be any internal debate when it comes to the Knicks' guaranteeing Robinson's $1.6 million non-guaranteed contract on Oct. 17.
Robinson doesn't turn 23 until next April and is coming off a season in which he shot 74.2% from the floor and averaged 9.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in 61 games (23.2 minutes per game).
• The Knicks have until Oct. 17 to tender a one-year qualifying offer (player is now a restricted free agent) to Damyean Dotson ($2 million).
Restrictions
• As of now, only six players can be traded for the full value on their contract: Julius Randle, Barrett, Smith, Ntilikina, Knox and Brazdeikis.
The remaining roster is made up of free agents or players who have partially guaranteed contracts or team options.
Until their contracts are fully guaranteed, for trade purposes, Gibson, Ellington, Bullock and Payton would count as $1 million in outgoing salary. Robinson counts as $0.
• Portis and Pinson (team options) cannot be traded.
Extension candidates
• There is a Nov. 30 deadline when it comes to possible extensions for former first-round picks Smith and Ntilikina and former second-rounder Robinson. The Knicks have to decide if the body of work of the former lottery picks over the past three seasons, along with how each fits with a new head coach, warrants a new contract.
Unless they can get a below-market contract for Ntilikina ($6-8 million), expect the Knicks to pass on a new contract and wait until both are restricted free agents in 2021.
• Robinson is an interesting situation because of his contract situation. If the Knicks extend him the maximum of a projected three years, $35 million, his new salary would replace the $1.9 million cap hold for 2022. The Knicks could also amend the contract to decline his option in 2021-22 and sign him to a four-year, $50 million extension. In either scenario, New York would lose up to $10 million in cap flexibility.
However, if there is no extension in place, the Knicks could lose him for nothing because he will become an unrestricted free agent in 2022.
What the Knicks and Robinson's representatives can do is bypass an extension this offseason and wait until the summer of 2021, when he could be a restricted free agent. By declining his $1.8 million team option in 2021, Robinson would become a restricted free agent and the Knicks could take advantage of his $1.9 million cap hold before signing him to a new contract. However, Houston did the same with forward Chandler Parsons in 2014 and was outpriced by the Mavericks.
The draft assets
The Knicks own all their future first-round picks.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have New York selecting in October:
No. 8 (own): Isaac Okoro | SG/SF | Auburn
No. 27 (via LAC): Isaiah Stewart | C | Washington
No. 38 (via CHA): Malachi Flynn | PG | San Diego State
The Knicks have a 2021 unprotected first from the Mavericks. In 2023, Dallas will send New York a top-10 protected first. The pick has top-10 protections in 2024 and 2025. The Knicks also have the right to swap first-round picks (top-four protected) in 2021 with the Clippers.