How has recent NBA news affected our projections for the restart of the NBA season at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex?
Since I originally ran projections for the eight seeding games and neutral-site playoffs using the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), a few teams have had key losses.
All-Star guards Bradley Beal and Victor Oladipo decided against playing -- though Oladipo's decision might not be final. The Brooklyn Nets saw three starters (Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan and Taurean Prince) withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19, and the Los Angeles Lakers lost Rajon Rondo to a thumb fracture after resuming practice.
I've again simulated the remainder of the season 1,000 times based on current rosters and projections. Let's break down the results.
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Play-in possibilities
The unique component of the restart format is the possibility of play-in games to determine the eighth seed in both conferences, which will take place if the team in ninth is within four games of the team in eighth. Let's break down the probability of that happening in the West and the East.
Since none of these rosters has changed in the past two weeks -- pending the possibility of the Sacramento Kings being affected by several of their players who tested positive for COVID-19 before arriving in Orlando -- the difference here is strictly about the ripple effects of other departures on these teams' schedules.
In particular, the New Orleans Pelicans -- already set to face the easiest projected schedule in the seeding games -- got another break when Beal decided to sit out the restart, turning a likely win into a near-certain one. As a result, the Pelicans are a bit more likely to appear in a play-in matchup. Overall, the West play-in tournament takes place in 95% of simulations.
Even with the Nets' roster severely short-handed, the chances of a play-in matchup in the East haven't actually improved all that much because of Beal's absence. Washington still has to beat a team besides Brooklyn to get to within four games, no matter how badly the Nets do. And without Beal, the Wizards win just 1.7 games on average.
Meanwhile, I'm a little surprised the Magic don't benefit more from two head-to-head matchups with Brooklyn, but as long as the Nets can split those games, their half-game lead in the standings gives them an edge despite Orlando rating as the better of the two teams in the restart.
Playoff seeding
The biggest change in the East comes from Oladipo's possible absence.
With Oladipo, the Pacers would jump the Miami Heat for the No. 4 seed more often than the Philadelphia 76ers did. With or without Oladipo, however, they were always the most likely of these three teams to finish sixth -- doing so a majority of the time now.
Elsewhere, as noted in the discussion of the play-in matchup, the Nets and Magic are now a toss-up for seventh and eighth.
For the most part, the West seeding projections haven't changed. Rondo's injury shouldn't affect the Lakers' positioning, given their massive 5½-game lead over the Clippers for first place in the West entering the eight seeding games.
Playoff projections
This is where we can see the impact of Oladipo's absence more clearly, as the Pacers go from winning a playoff series for the first time since 2014 in around 30% of simulations with their All-Star guard to just 20% without him. That benefit mostly accrues to the Heat, who advanced out of the first round in just 45% of simulations previously because falling all the way to sixth is a more realistic possibility if Oladipo were to play.
In the West, I don't have the ability in these simulations to account for the likelihood of Rondo returning after the first round of the playoffs. The Lakers' overall playoff projection was changed to redistribute minutes from Rondo primarily to Alex Caruso, with a few going to newcomer JR Smith. Their projection actually improved slightly with those changes because Caruso has rated so well for RPM.