The Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo will not have to play the waiting game when it comes to his supermax eligibility this offseason. The MVP front-runner met the supermax criteria with All-NBA selections in 2018 and 2019. But what will happen to the more than 25 NBA players with lingering incentives in their contracts for the 2019-20 season?
When the season was suspended in March due to the coronavirus pandemic, multiple players were approaching eligibility for contract bonuses. With basketball likely to return this summer, the league and the NBPA have to negotiate what will happen to that money.
Sources told ESPN that the most likely outcome will be similar to how the league handled bonuses during the lockout-shortened season in 2011-12. Contract incentives initially intended for 82 games were prorated to account for the 66-game season. Now, a player with a 66-game bonus in his contract would see that number prorated to 58 as the regular season is adjusted to 72 games. However, performance bonuses based on averages -- such as shooting percentages -- were not adjusted.
Which players and teams will be affected most by this kind of adjustment? Here's our breakdown of the major incentives to watch.
Rookie max extensions
These three young stars signed max extensions last July for 25% of the 2020-21 salary cap, with a possible increase for earning All-NBA honors this season. Given the uncertain economic future of the NBA, the expected $167 million extensions for Simmons and Murray and $129 million deal for Siakam (for one less year) will decrease if the cap falls below the projected $115 million number. The salary cap holding at its $109 million mark for this season would drop Simmons' and Murray's deals down to $158 million.
Simmons' extension will increase from 25% of the salary cap to 30% if he is named All-NBA first team, 29% for second team and 28% for third team. Siakam and Murray have similar incentive bumps on slightly different scales.
Likely outcome (Simmons): With the league projected to lose at least $1 billion in revenue, Simmons' $167 million extension should decrease in total value with a lower cap. He's also a long shot for All-NBA honors given the deep field of guards, so he's likely to end up with 25% of wherever the 2020-21 salary cap falls, barring any major CBA changes.
Likely outcome (Siakam): Siakam's deal bumps up to 30% of the cap for winning MVP, 29% for All-NBA first team and 28% for second team.
LeBron James and Antetokounmpo look like locks for the first team, meaning Siakam is competing against Anthony Davis (also eligible at center), Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler for the two second-team spots and an increase to 28% of the cap. Siakam ranked fourth among all forwards in ESPN's real plus-minus when the season was suspended, and he has a real chance to grab either second-team spot.
Likely outcome (Murray): Murray is not in contention for All-NBA honors and likely will see his $167 million deal decrease.
Key bonuses to watch
Brown is in a unique situation because his bonuses this year impact the Celtics' cap for only next season -- not his own salary. His four-year extension starting in 2020-21 includes $4 million in likely bonuses and $8 million in unlikely bonuses (mostly for major awards). Bonuses are deemed likely -- and thus count for cap and trade purposes -- if they were reached the previous season.
Brown is scheduled to receive a $22.9 million base salary in 2020-21, with his cap hit bumping up to $23.8 million after likely incentives for games played (65), Boston winning 49 games and Boston reaching the second round of the playoffs. Brown has played in 50 of 64 games, and the Celtics have 43 wins.
Likely outcome: With Boston now playing 72 games this season, the games played bonus should be prorated from 65 to 57. Brown would need to play in seven out of the eight remaining regular-season games for the bonus to become likely for 2020-21. The bonus for 49 wins will now be prorated to 43, which Boston has already achieved. The Celtics would still need to advance to the second round of the postseason for that bonus to remain likely. If he doesn't hit that games played mark and/or the Celtics don't reach the second round, then those bonuses will switch to unlikely for next season, dropping his cap hit for Boston.
One other factor here: Brown's incentives could be diminished if the salary cap drops significantly, because his base salary plus bonuses would not be allowed to exceed 25% of the cap number.
To help accommodate the DeAndre Jordan signing last summer, Durant agreed to reduce his base pay by $1 million. Although he has not played a game this season, Durant will receive the $1 million in lost salary if Brooklyn clinches a playoff spot.
Likely outcome: The Nets are six games up on the ninth-place Washington Wizards, but Durant theoretically could miss out on the bonus if Brooklyn falls to the eighth seed and is knocked out in a play-in game . The language in Durant's contract states that Brooklyn must reach Round 1 of the playoffs. It's unclear if the league would consider a group play stage to be equivalent for bonus purposes.
Kyrie Irving | Brooklyn Nets
Irving had right shoulder surgery on March 3 and was ruled out for the remainder of the season. At the time of the surgery, Irving had met the criteria for only one (free throw percentage) of the eight $125,000 bonuses in his contract. In the unlikely scenario that he does return in mid-July for a few regular-season games, Irving could reach the two other incentives -- made 3-pointers (2.8) and offensive rating (114.0).
Likely outcome: It's expected that Irving will not return for the playoffs and earn the lone bonus for FT%.
When the season went on hiatus in mid-March, the Grizzlies had won 32 games. That matters because Jones has an $858,000 bonus in his contract if Memphis wins 33 games.
Likely outcome: Based on a 73-game season, the 33-win benchmark is now prorated to 29. The bonus is now deemed likely.
There are 500,000 reasons Harkless wanted to see the season resume. The forward has a half-million-dollar incentive in his contract if he attempts more than 100 3s and shoots 35% or better. The forward had attempted 98 3s and shot 34.7% when the season was put on pause.
Likely outcome: With the Knicks not participating in the remainder of the season, Harkless will fall 0.3% short of shooting 35% from three.
Fournier has $1.1 million in incentives, with $600,000 broken down into four categories: first-round appearance in the playoffs, second-round appearance, conference finals and Finals. Fournier will also need to appear in 75% of the games played per round.
Likely outcome: There will be a negotiation when it comes to Fournier's incentives. The guard has already met the required number of games (60), but the Magic might have to win a play-in game to make the postseason. When the season was postponed, Orlando was 5.5 games ahead of Washington for the final playoff spot in the East. If Orlando loses a play-in, does that mean Fournier doesn't get his first-round appearance bonus?
Before the season started, no player had more on the line financially than Embiid. If Embiid played 1,650 minutes, he would see the final three years of his contract -- worth $29.5 million, $31.6 million and $33.6 million -- become fully guaranteed, even if he suffered a career-ending injury.
In addition, Embiid would reach the supermax criteria for the summer of 2021 by earning any All-NBA slot.
Likely outcome: The addition of eight regular-season games should see the 1,650 minutes criteria now reduced to 1,469. Embiid has played 1,329 minutes and is 140 minutes shy of that mark.
Al Horford | 76ers
The final season of Horford's four-year, $109 million contract has an escalating clause based on how far the 76ers advance in the postseason. If Philadelphia reaches the NBA Finals, Horford's protection in 2022-23 will increase from $14.5 million to $19.5 million. If the Sixers win the championship, Horford's full $26.5 million will be guaranteed.
Likely outcome: We don't know for sure, but a healthy Ben Simmons and a neutral-court playoffs could only help Philly's chances of advancing.
Hield is in a similar situation as Brown, with his incentives counting for 2020-21 cap purposes on top of his $24.4 million base compensation. His projected cap hit currently stands at $26.4 million because of these likely bonuses (assuming the cap doesn't drop significantly):
Total 3-point percentage (greater than 40) and free throw percentage (greater than 85)
Per game turnovers (less than 2)
Defensive rating (less than 110.5)
Top 10 in 3s made
Likely outcome: Hield has met the games played criteria for each bonus, but he has hit only the made 3s benchmark so far. His 39.5% shooting from 3, 2.3 turnovers per game and 111.0 defensive rating are all borderline bonuses and will be determined after the eight regular-season games are played.
Also keep an eye on the playoff format here. Hield has a $500,000 bonus if the Kings reach the first round.
Team-by-team breakdowns
Kleber has three sets of pending bonuses in his contract:
Free throw percentage (at least 80%): $75,000
Minutes played divided by rebounds (greater than 4.0): $100,000
3-point percentage (at least 40%): $150,000
Likely outcome: The three bonuses will not have a prorated formula. Right now, Kleber is on track to clear the FT% (86.3%) and minutes/rebounds (4.8) but not the 3P% (37.4%).
Harris played 56 games last season and missed out on a $350,000 bonus when the Nuggets reached the second round of the playoffs. The incentive was voided because of a 60-game requirement in his contract. This season, Harris has played 56 games for a third-place Nuggets team.
Besides the bonus for reaching the second round, Harris will also earn $225,000 if the Nuggets win 57 games, plus $100,000 a piece for advancing to the conference finals and NBA Finals.
Likely outcome: The 60-game criteria is prorated to 53 in a 72-game regular season. Harris would become eligible for up to an additional $550,000 if the Nuggets reach the NBA Finals. The bonus for 57 wins likely will be voided.
Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap | Nuggets
Jokic has two sets of bonuses in his contract -- $465,518 if Denver clinches a playoff spot and an additional $465,517 for making it to the second round. Millsap has a $150,000 bonus for reaching the first round and $200,000 each for the second round, conference finals, NBA Finals and winning the championship.
Denver is currently 43-22, 14.5 games ahead of ninth-place Portland. Because Denver was a top-eight team in the West before the season was postponed, Jokic and Millsap should also receive the first-round bonus if there is a 30-team playoff.
Likely outcome: Both players will earn the bonus with Denver earning a playoff spot.
Before the season, Gordon signed a four-year, $75.5 million extension that begins in 2020-21. If the Rockets win the championship this season (or in any year of the contract), the $20.9 million non-guaranteed salary in the final year of the extension becomes fully guaranteed. Gordon also has to play a minimum of 500 regular-season minutes or 750 minutes combined in the regular season and postseason.
Likely outcome: Gordon has met the criteria of minutes with 972. The Rockets are tied for fifth place, 2.5 games behind the third-place Nuggets.
T.J. Warren | Indiana Pacers
When the season was postponed in early March, Warren had made 184 3s -- one short of reaching a bonus stipulation in his contract. If Warren shoots 37% from 3 and makes 185 field goals, he will earn a $250,000 bonus.
Likely outcome: Considering there were 17 games left in the regular season, Warren's 3s made will be considered met. Through 64 games, Warren is shooting 37.5% from 3.
On top of a $50,000 bonus if the Lakers reach the conference finals, Caldwell-Pope has an additional $1 million in statistical incentives:
Rebounds greater than 4.0 per game
Steals greater than 1.2
Assists greater than 1.85
Likely outcome: The three statistical bonuses will not be prorated because they are per-game averages. Through 62 games, Caldwell-Pope is averaging 2.1 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 1.7 assists.
Hill was eight minutes short of a $531,614 bonus when the season was halted. The majority of the minutes (901) were played in a Grizzlies uniform, but the Heat will be responsible for the additional compensation as part of a condition from the February trade. Because Miami is a luxury team, the bonus will cost an additional $797,421.
Likely outcome: This one is easy, considering the NBA will likely take the 1,000-minute benchmark and prorate that over 73 games played, meeting the requirement.
Kelly Olynyk | Miami Heat
The Heat's loss to Charlotte on the night the season was postponed has Olynyk sitting in a holding pattern. Miami would have clinched a playoff spot with a win, thus earning the forward an extra $400,000. Olynyk also has a $1 million bonus for playing 1,700 minutes this season. Although he reached the milestone last season, Olynyk was pacing short of reaching the criteria.
Likely outcome: The Heat will reach the playoffs, allowing Olynyk to earn the $400,000 bonus. The 1,700 minutes criteria should now be prorated to 1,513, voiding the minutes bonus -- offsetting Solomon Hill's bonus when it comes to the luxury tax.
Holiday has 14 sets of bonuses in his contract that are broken down into three categories: award honors, postseason achievement and statistics. Holiday reached four of those incentives ($255,000 each) last year -- games played (66), minutes (2,075), assists per game (7.3) and rebounds per game (3.15.)
Likely outcome: When the season was postponed, Holiday was on the verge of reaching games played (55), rebounds (4.9) and minutes (1,922) criteria, but he was 0.4 behind in assists per game.
By using a 72-game schedule (New Orleans has played 64 games), Holiday would need to play 58 games (two short) and 1,771 minutes. He has already met the minutes criteria.
Schroder has $2 million in bonuses in his contract, and $1 million is still active (but unlikely). Schroder will earn $500,000 if he is named to the All-Defensive first or second team, $250,000 if the Thunder reach the NBA Finals and an additional $250,000 if they win the championship. All three incentives are tied to playing 65 games.
Likely outcome: Despite falling two games short of 65, Schroder will meet the games criteria based on the prorated formula. What happens next will be determined by the Thunder's postseason and if Schroder is named All-Defense. He currently ranks ninth among point guards in defensive real plus-minus.
Mills has a $250,000 bonus for 3s made (more than 185) during the regular season and playoffs. When the season was halted, the Spurs guard had made 149.
Likely outcome: The Spurs have played 63 regular-season games -- the fewest in the NBA. In a 72-game regular season, the criteria would be reduced from 185 to 162.
Last season Lowry earned $1.7 million in bonuses, and he will have the same opportunity when the season resumes.
The four bonuses all have a 65-games criteria and will see the point guard earn $200,000 for being selected to the All-Star Game (achieved) and depending on postseason success (conference finals, NBA Finals and winning the championship).
Likely outcome: Lowry has played 52 games and is five short of reaching the games criteria, using a 72-game schedule for prorating.
Winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2018 and being named to the All-NBA team last season make Gobert supermax eligible this summer. If the center is named All-NBA for a second consecutive season or wins DPOY, the supermax criteria will transfer over to the summer of 2021.
Gobert has already earned $1 million for being selected to the All-Star Game and is eligible for an additional $500,000 for All-Defense first team, $250,000 if his defensive rating is below 100 and $250,000 if his minutes played divided by rebounds per game is under 3.2.
Likely outcome: The two statistical bonuses each have a 67-games criteria that Gobert has to reach to become eligible. Gobert, who has played 62 games this season, will meet the criteria with the prorated formula. Gobert is currently short on the defensive rating (103.4) criteria but on track for minutes/rebounds (2.5).