Where can Kristaps Porzingis best help the Dallas Mavericks' offense?
At 7-foot-3, Porzingis might look like he belongs in the paint. But his skill set generally keeps him far from the low post, the traditional station for players his size. In fact, his primary role as an outside shooter, while counterintuitive to some, has contributed to the Mavericks' record-setting offense.
Understanding why Porzingis' spacing is valuable to the Mavericks -- in ways that playing down low would not be -- can help us unlock larger truths about the modern NBA game.
No reason to question Dallas offense
With Porzingis struggling in the Mavericks' Dec. 26 game against San Antonio (he scored 13 points on 4-of-15 shooting), TNT color commentator Chris Webber made it clear he thought Porzingis would be better off spending more time in the post. TNT's "Inside the NBA" analysts echoed that criticism at halftime.
Those comments made their way back to Carlisle, who used his postgame media availability to fire back with a strong statement, "Our numbers are very substantial that when [Porzingis] spaces beyond the 3-point line, you know, we're a historically good offensive team."
Said Porzingis about Carlisle's diatribe: "He was just protecting me, protecting the way the team wants to use me. Of course I've been getting criticism, but our offense has been very good, so you can't really say anything to that, right?"
With Porzingis playing his current role, the Mavericks not only lead the NBA in offensive rating this season, but are on track to score the most points per 100 possessions since team turnovers were first tracked in 1973-74 -- surpassing a pair of recent Golden State Warriors teams.
The Mavericks have benefited from an upward trend in offense that has produced five of the six most efficient performances within the past five seasons. Relative to league average, Dallas is 6.5% more efficient per offensive possession, a less-historic 24th since the NBA-ABA merger in 1977. Either way, the Mavericks' offense is working just fine. From Carlisle's perspective, that's because Dallas ranks 24th in the league with 5.0 post-ups per 100 possessions this season, according to Second Spectrum.
"When any of our guys go in there [the post], our effectiveness is diminished exponentially," he said. "It's counterintuitive, I understand that, but it's a fact."
Offenses better with fewer players in the paint
Would you believe that you can learn a lot about how good an offense is from observing where players stand?
In an effort to replicate the kind of analysis that has driven the Mavericks away from post-ups, Neil Johnson of ESPN Analytics used camera-tracking data to determine how often each player is in the paint at any given point their team is on offense.
The results are striking, as this information explains about 15% of the variation in teams' offensive ratings, with an expected difference of more than five points per 100 possessions between the team whose players spend the most time in the paint (Porzingis' old team, the New York Knicks) and the least (the Utah Jazz).
Though Dallas doesn't quite lead the league in this category, the Mavericks' tendency to keep Porzingis and fellow big man Maxi Kleber on the perimeter puts them among the teams whose players spend the least time in the paint -- nearly all of them top-tier offenses.
How much time players spend in the paint has a strong relationship with how often teams shoot 3-pointers. However, the correlation between time in the paint and offensive rating is much stronger than with 3-point attempt rate. Where players stand is, from this perspective, more important than from where they shoot.
While this might not be how Dallas has quantified the value of having Porzingis beyond the 3-point line rather than in the paint, analysis of the results is clearly part of the Mavericks' thinking.
"The choices we make on how we use KP aren't random," Dallas owner Mark Cuban said via email. "They are not just data-driven but driven by macro strategies as well. We rely on KP not just for his offense but also for his defense. So we look for ways to maximize his impact, wherever that takes us in terms of how we use him. We are never dogmatic about our approach."
Porzingis indicated this kind of data helped get him on board with moving his game more to the perimeter than it was with the Knicks, something that has meant sacrificing touches.
"I'm aware of that," he said of the value provided by his floor spacing. "Otherwise it wouldn't make sense. I'm all-in for winning and doing what's the most effective to get wins."
Shooting 3s creates easier 2s
For the most part, explanations of why posting up is a bad idea for offenses have focused on the inefficiency of post-up play. That is an issue with Porzingis, who has averaged just 0.85 points per chance this season on post-ups, according to Second Spectrum. However, taking Porzingis out of the post -- he's averaging 5.0 post-ups per 100 possessions, down from 12.4 in 2017-18 via Second Spectrum tracking -- hasn't necessarily translated to better overall efficiency for him.
Like many other players coming off ACL injuries, Porzingis has struggled as a 3-point shooter, making just 35% of his attempts after hitting 40% during his final season in New York. As a result, Porzingis' .538 true shooting percentage is largely unchanged from the .539 he posted in 2017-18 -- and well below the league average of .562.
Porzingis' value to the Mavericks' offense, then, is less about the 3s he's taking than the way his presence warps opposing defenses by dragging his defender away from the basket. Reversing the perspective, tracking data shows defenders facing Dallas spend less time in the paint than they do against any other offense. (There's not complete overlap between the two measures, though naturally offenses that have players in the paint less frequently force defenses to spend less time in the paint as well.)
This value shows up most clearly in terms of scoring on drives. At the league level, teams that have fewer players in the paint both drive more frequently per game and score more efficiently on drives than their counterparts with players clogging the paint.
Though the Mavericks rank just 11th in the league in drives per game, according to Second Spectrum data on NBA Advanced Stats, their true shooting percentage of .558 on drives is fifth highest. Luka Doncic has been the league's most efficient driver this season, averaging 1.2 points per chance on drives via Second Spectrum tracking. That increases to 1.26 points per chance with Porzingis on the court, as compared with 1.15 when Porzingis is on the bench.
When Porzingis plays center, as he has primarily since Dwight Powell's season-ending Achilles injury in January, shot-blockers are forced to choose between helping at the rim and staying with Porzingis beyond the arc.
"Of course, you can feel that," Porzingis said. "Everybody can feel that. Not just the guards, but also with Dwight, when he was driving to the basket, there's nobody under the basket. So it creates a lot of open looks close to the basket."
The goal of post-ups, in the eyes of believers, is to create high-percentage opportunities around the hoop. Ironically, by standing far away from the basket, that's precisely what Porzingis is doing for his teammates. Given the results, and his rant, don't expect Carlisle to change anytime soon.