What will Ben Simmons' injury mean for the Philadelphia 76ers?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Tuesday that Simmons will be re-evaluated in two weeks for a nerve impingement in his lower back, but there's little expectation he'll be ready to return to the lineup that soon
While the Sixers have dealt with injuries to multiple starters this season, Simmons' absence is a new challenge.
Already short on playmakers, how can Philadelphia stay afloat without its 6-foot-10 point guard? Let's take a look at coach Brett Brown's options.
Sixers likely to struggle with Embiid on bench
Despite his much-lamented shortcomings as a shooter, Simmons has been the most important player for the 76ers' offense this season. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Philadelphia's offensive rating declines by 5.5 points per 100 possessions with Simmons on the bench -- the largest difference for any Sixers player who has seen more than 100 minutes of action.
Even that stat might understate Simmons' importance to Philly's offensive attack. When both Simmons and fellow All-Star Joel Embiid are healthy, Brown tends to build his rotations so at least one of his stars is on the court at all times. The 76ers still score well with Embiid on the court -- in fact, their 106.1 offensive rating with Embiid but not Simmons is better than the 104.4 points per 100 possessions they've scored with both players together this season.
Take both players out of the mix, however, and the Philadelphia offense has ground to a halt this season. According to Cleaning the Glass data, in the 351 minutes neither star has played, the Sixers' offensive rating ranks in the eighth percentile among all lineups leaguewide. Philadelphia has been outscored by 7.7 points per 100 possessions in those minutes, equivalent to the Atlanta Hawks' net rating over the course of the season.
We saw a dramatic example of that long-term trend Thursday against Brooklyn, when the 76ers outscored the Nets by 24 points in Embiid's 41 minutes but still needed overtime to come up with the victory because they were outscored by 16 in the less than 12 minutes Embiid rested.
Time for Burks to shine
Part of the reason Philadelphia has struggled with Simmons on the bench this season is that the team invested relatively little in backup point guards last summer. Raul Neto, who signed for the veteran's minimum, beat out training camp invitee Trey Burke to claim that role, and Burke was waived at the trade deadline. Neto, who averages just 12.4 points and 4.8 assists per 36 minutes, is not a dynamic playmaker. So Brown has relied on wing Josh Richardson to take on lead ballhandling duties when Simmons is on the bench.
The Sixers added another option at the deadline, acquiring Alec Burks along with fellow veteran Glenn Robinson III from the Golden State Warriors. Though Burks, too, is not a natural point guard, he thrived in an on-ball role with the Warriors, averaging 20 points and 3.9 assists per 36 minutes prior to the deal.
Before Simmons went down, Philly was probably looking at Burks primarily to solidify the minutes when Simmons was on the bench. Burks saw 14 minutes in his 76ers debut the game before the All-Star break, but then he ramped that up to 30 against Brooklyn -- when he had 19 points -- and 21 minutes against Milwaukee, where he was less effective.
Brown went in a different direction Monday against the Hawks, moving second-year wing Shake Milton to point guard and bringing Al Horford back into a bigger starting lineup. Who plays the point isn't as important alongside Embiid in lineups that will be built on post-ups rather than pick-and-rolls, and ESPN's Tim Bontemps reported Monday that Brown told reporters he intends to replace Simmons at point guard by committee. But make no mistake, Burks will become Philadelphia's most important playmaker as long as Simmons is sidelined.
Impact on Sixers' playoff positioning
The good news for Philadelphia is the team has one of the league's easiest remaining schedules. According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), only the Hawks play an easier slate of opponents the remainder of the season. The Sixers should be favored in each of their next two games against lottery-bound opponents before heading out on a four-game road trip played entirely in the state of California.
Back-to-back games against the Clippers and Lakers to start that trip will be Philly's last two of the season on the road against above-.500 opponents based on current records. (The Sixers do travel to play the Memphis Grizzlies, who currently are right at .500, during the season's final week.)
Projections based on BPI had the 76ers claiming home-court advantage about half the time before accounting for Simmons' absence. Philadelphia is one game back of the Miami Heat in the loss column and already has lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Heat. If the Sixers drop off at all without Simmons, it likely would doom their chances at a top-four seed.
In the other direction, Philadelphia faces relatively less pressure because the Indiana Pacers have slipped since Victor Oladipo's return to the lineup, falling 2.5 games back of the Sixers in sixth. Philly does need to win the final matchup between the teams on March 14 in the City of Brotherly Love to avoid losing the head-to-head tiebreaker, which would come down to conference record if the 76ers win that game. But Indiana is dealing with an absence of its own, having lost sixth man Jeremy Lamb to an ACL tear and other associated knee injuries suffered Sunday in Toronto.
As a result, Philly looks likely to finish fifth in the East no matter how long Simmons ends up out of the lineup.