Timberwolves get: D'Angelo Russell, Jacob Evans, Omari Spellman
Warriors get: Andrew Wiggins, 2021 top-three protected first-round pick, 2021 second-round pick
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Golden State Warriors: C
You don't get light years ahead without taking a few risks, and this deal is the culmination of a pair of them for the Warriors in the past seven months. It started with taking back Russell in a sign-and-trade with the Brooklyn Nets for the departed Kevin Durant rather than creating a trade exception. That decision cost Golden State a first-round pick and Andre Iguodala, but also gave the Warriors a piece with more trade value than anyone else they could have added to their core.
Now, Golden State has flipped Russell on to Minnesota in a deal that sacrifices talent for fit with draft compensation to help grease the wheels.
Because the Warriors moved him, we'll never get to see how Russell fits with the backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry and Russell played together just 74 minutes before a broken bone in Curry's hand sidelined him and caused Golden State's season to change direction. Clearly, however, the Warriors' front office shared the concerns we had from the outside about whether the trio would work well together. An off-ball role fails to maximize Russell's value, while his poor defense would have forced Curry to take on more difficult defensive assignments rather than guarding the opponent's weakest perimeter threat.
On paper, Wiggins solves those issues. He's big enough to defend whichever position Golden State needs on the perimeter, and he's used to playing regularly off the ball, this year's role as an occasional point guard aside. Of course, the problem is that aside from a strong start to this season, Wiggins' overall production has never matched up to his hypothetical potential.
The comparison will inevitably be made between Wiggins and Harrison Barnes, another highly touted small forward whose NBA career has fallen short of expectations despite his role as a starter on the Warriors' first championship team and the 2015-16 squad that won a record 73 games. That's certainly reasonable; Barnes scores as the 11th most similar player to Wiggins at the same age according to my SCHOENE projection system. Still, I think that Barnes was a better complement to the Splash Brothers for a couple of reasons.
First, Barnes is a much better floor spacer than Wiggins. He's a career 37% 3-point shooter who hit 41% and 38% beyond the arc during two seasons under Steve Kerr. By contrast, Wiggins has reached league average on 3s only once in his career (36% in 2016-17) and is a 33% career shooter. Wiggins is more accurate on catch-and-shoot 3s than off the bounce, but then so is everybody. Among the 105 players who have attempted at least 1,000 catch-and-shoot 3s since 2013-14, Wiggins' 36% accuracy ranks 90th according to Second Spectrum tracking. Barnes is 62nd at 37.5%.
Second, while Wiggins has always looked the part of a defensive stopper and is capable defensively in 1-on-1 situations, he's made little impact as a team defender. Wiggins has never rated in the NBA's top 350 in the defensive rating of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), whereas Barnes has occasionally rated better than league average and has only been outside the top 350 once.
(Additionally, Barnes was big enough at 6-foot-8, 225 to defend power forwards as part of the original Death Lineup. Sliding down to power forward would be a stretch for the smaller Wiggins in most matchups.)
Clearly, the Warriors are betting on their ability to get more out of Wiggins, who will turn 25 later this month. His best days are still ahead of him. First, however, Wiggins is going to have to buy into a role as more than just a 1-on-1 scorer on offense and individual defender. We'll see whether Golden State's coaching staff and culture can accomplish that. (I'm skeptical.)
Of course, the Warriors didn't value Wiggins as much as Russell, which is why they demanded a first-round pick in return. It's interesting that the two sides settled on a 2021 first-rounder with top-3 protection, which becomes unprotected in 2022. Because of this year's weak draft class, that pick has more upside than the Timberwolves' 2020 pick but also far more downside if the team is competitive. To some extent, Golden State is betting against Minnesota and Russell. This construction also gives the Warriors a chance at lottery picks in back-to-back drafts, since they're assured of having one this season, and a potentially valuable trade chip at the 2021 deadline.
Still, from a light-years perspective I'm inclined to view this trade as a step back for Golden State. If they want to deal for yet another star to join Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green, I think that will be more difficult to do using Wiggins and the Timberwolves' first-round pick than with Russell alone. So it's up to the Warriors' coaching staff to increase Wiggins' value, either for yet another trade or simply as part of a contending core in the Bay.
As a side benefit, including Evans and Spellman in the trade will allow Golden State to avoid the luxury tax this season, meaning the Warriors will not be subject to the repeater tax in 2020-21. That's the bigger benefit, since Golden State's tax bill would have been modest either way. The repeater tax would have added another dollar for every dollar the Warriors are above the tax line next season, which could mean tens of millions in savings. That wasn't a reason to do this trade, but it doesn't hurt and Golden State will probably end up with a better player than Evans filling his roster spot.
Minnesota Timberwolves: A-
Russell has been Gersson Rosas' white whale since last July, when the Timberwolves aggressively pursued him despite not having any cap space. The Warriors' willingness to do a sign-and-trade scuttled those plans, but Minnesota eventually got its point guard to pair with Karl-Anthony Towns. We'll see whether this pursuit ends better than Captain Ahab's did.
On the plus side, the Timberwolves are getting a slightly better version of Russell than the one who made last year's All-Star Game as an injury replacement. Despite being in his fifth season in the league, Russell won't turn 24 until later this month. At a position where players tend to peak relatively late, he shouldn't be considered a finished product. He made important progress during his partial season with Golden State, posting the best efficiency of his career. Russell is shooting career-best marks on both catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s, which is crucial to remain efficient because he rarely gets to the free throw line.
Because both players are shooting threats, Russell-Towns pick-and-rolls should be difficult to defend. The best strategy against Russell in pick-and-roll has often been to switch, since he's not an elite 1-on-1 creator even against mismatches. Since few guards can handle Towns in the paint, teams won't want to switch against him, solving that issue.
Between this deal and Tuesday's four-team trade, Minnesota has now dramatically improved its outside shooting. Lineups with Russell and Malik Beasley at guard and either Juan Hernangomez or Jake Layman (when he returns from a toe injury) at power forward will put three shooters around Towns, with the fifth spot (Jarrett Culver or Josh Okogie at small forward) held by the only below-average shooter of the group. That's a much better fit for the five-out system Rosas and coach Ryan Saunders want to play.
The challenge will be at the other end of the court. Russell's teams have allowed more points per 100 possessions with him on the court in four of his five seasons, according to Cleaning the Glass, often dramatically so. His minus-2.7 defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) this season puts him among the league's bottom 20 players.
The Warriors appear to be betting that defensive limitations will keep the Timberwolves out of the 2021 playoffs, delivering them a lottery pick. That's the risk Minnesota is taking here, more acutely so in 2022 when the pick will be unprotected if it doesn't convey in 2021. If they hand Golden State a top-five pick, the Timberwolves may well regret this deal. Failing that, moving on from the failed Wiggins era and giving Towns a reason to believe in the team's future seems well worth it.