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ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
What will happen at the 2020 NBA trade deadline, and what moves should teams make before Thursday?
The action has started to pick up this week, with the Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets constructing a massive, 12-player trade involving Clint Capela and Robert Covington.
ESPN insiders Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton answer the big questions heading toward deadline day, including what trades make the most sense for top contenders, how to value 2020 first-round picks, who are the underrated trade targets and more.
What's a reasonable offer for Jrue Holiday that the New Orleans Pelicans should accept?
Marks: Because they have such a young team and the draft compensation from the Lakers has not come to fruition, the goal for the Pelicans should be to target teams with complementary players to surround Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson.
Pretty much every trade scenario I see would cause the Pelicans to take a significant step back in the short run. Before Tuesday's 12-player trade, I thought the Nuggets had the right mix of players in Malik Beasley, Juan Hernangomez, Gary Harris and draft picks to entice New Orleans. Now with Beasley and Hernangomez off to Minnesota and the Nuggets putting the untouchable tag on Michael Porter Jr., finding the right package is moot.
Rather than trade Holiday now, the Pelicans might want to wait until the offseason, when a team that loses in the playoffs might be willing to give up more players and draft assets than at the deadline.
What are the benefits of trading D'Angelo Russell now vs. waiting until the offseason for the Golden State Warriors?
Marks: There are none. I am a bit perplexed seeing Russell's name in trade rumors, especially when they involve the Timberwolves.
Outside of the big three of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson and their 2020 first-round pick, Russell is the Warriors' most valuable trade asset. Swapping him out for the enigma known as Andrew Wiggins does little for the Warriors unless they see him in the Harrison Barnes-type role. That is a big gamble, especially with max money owed Wiggins through 2022-23.
Of course, we can make the argument that Golden State probably will receive valuable draft assets, but this type of deal should be available in June when the order of the draft is known. The Warriors already will have a likely top-five pick in a weak draft; does adding another make sense? I don't think so.
What kind of piece do the Los Angeles Lakers need most?
Marks: We detailed last month that the priority should be two things: a primary ball handler off the bench and shooting to stretch the floor.
Kyle Kuzma is their lone realistic trade chip. Because he earns only $2 million, the Lakers would need to stack up contracts to pursue a player like Marcus Morris Sr. from the Knicks. But four-for-one trades are difficult during the season because of 15-man roster restrictions.
The backup point guard could arrive after the deadline if they sign L.A. native Darren Collison.
Are the LA Clippers under pressure to make a deal?
Marks: The Clippers are under pressure to get Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to the regular-season finish line healthy. When both are on the court, LA is 16-4, a 66-win pace.
The Clippers do have their own 2020 first-round pick to trade, but adding to the roster probably will also cost them Maurice Harkless. As with the Lakers, the Clippers' big addition could be a free agent like Darren Collison or a buyout candidate like the Wolves' Evan Turner.
Which player or players should the Milwaukee Bucks target?
Pelton: The bad news for Milwaukee is really good news: The team is so deep that upgrading will be a challenge. That said, the Bucks might not want to rest on their league-best record with so much riding on this postseason ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo's decision of whether to accept a supermax extension offer this summer.
I think Milwaukee could use one more reliable guard just in case Eric Bledsoe's shooting again proves troublesome in the playoffs. Bogdan Bogdanovic would be an ideal fit in this role, supplying some on-ball creation along with knockdown shooting when playing off the ball. Second, another combo forward would give coach Mike Budenholzer more ability to slide Giannis to center without sacrificing as much size. Marcus Morris Sr. fits well in this spot.
Should projections about this year's draft affect how teams value 2020 first-round picks?
Pelton: To an extent. There is some relationship historically between how well a draft rates in my consensus projections and how well players actually end up performing during their first five NBA seasons. So there do seem to be strong and weak drafts that we can evaluate ahead of time, and this year's group does look to be on the weak side. Add in the fact that rookie-scale contracts for first-round picks have grown during the current collective bargaining agreement, and those picks appear to have less trade value than at any other time in recent years.
At the same time, teams have gotten themselves in trouble putting too much stock in their own draft board. In 2012, the Nets traded a first-round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers with top-three protection, reportedly because they thought there were three elite prospects in the draft (eventual top-two picks Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, as well as No. 5 pick Thomas Robinson). The Nets' pick landed sixth, and the Blazers used it to draft Damian Lillard.
How much would you expect Andre Iguodala to help a contender?
Update: Iguodala was traded to the Miami Heat on Wednesday.
Pelton: It's a little tough to say given it has been eight months since we've seen Iguodala on the court. The optimistic case is that Iguodala was already conserving energy for the playoffs in recent seasons, and sitting out the first three-plus months is the ultimate way to do so. A pessimist would note that Iguodala would have to play his way back into rhythm during the midst of the season.
Ultimately, I think I'm more positive. As compared to the other 3-and-D wings on the market, Iguodala brings unparalleled passing ability, which could help teams short on playmaking. And we've seen as recently as last spring that Iguodala can play starter minutes on a championship-caliber team.
Which reported trade target do you consider underrated on the market?
Pelton: Maurice Harkless, who could find himself in the unique position of being traded twice this week. Harkless is a useful 3-and-D role player, albeit heavier on the defensive end of the equation (he's a career 32.5% 3-point shooter on limited volume).
Because he's in the last year of a reasonable contract paying him $11 million, dealing Harkless is the easiest way for the Clippers to bring back a high-salaried player. If he goes to a lottery team, another contender -- say, the Dallas Mavericks, who have a similarly sized expiring contract in Courtney Lee, who's out of the rotation -- would be wise to grab Harkless as part of its playoff rotation.
And which reported trade target do you consider overrated?
Marks: Kuzma. Despite a career average of 16 PPG and a controllable rookie contract, Kuzma is merely a role player on a championship team and a starter on a lottery squad. For the season, Kuzma ranks No. 261 overall in ESPN's real plus-minus. Yet the Lakers need Kuzma to have value on the trade market, because he is their lone trade asset outside of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That will be challenging. Because he earns only $2 million this season, moving Kuzma for a player such as the Knicks' Marcus Morris Sr. becomes nearly impossible unless the Lakers want to start trading four players for one.
What move do you most want to see from a team bunched in the East's 2-6 seeds?
Pelton: Let's go with the Sixers acquiring Derrick Rose, which wouldn't solve their shooting problems but would allow them to use Ben Simmons more as a roll man in the pick-and-roll game -- something that's difficult now because Simmons is also their most reliable pick-and-roll ball handler.
Because Philadelphia is out a first-round pick from the Tobias Harris trade, I wouldn't be willing to offer a first-rounder for Rose but would give the Detroit Pistons their pick of two of the second-rounders the Sixers have coming from Atlanta and New York this season and New York in 2021 to go along with Jonah Bolden and Zhaire Smith as matching salary.