What do the rookie extensions agreed to before Monday's deadline for players entering the final seasons of their rookie contracts mean for the players and teams involved?
A busy final three days before the deadline saw six players agree to extensions, bringing the total for the 2016 first round to nine. (Caris LeVert, Jamal Murray and Ben Simmons agreed to extensions over the summer, the latter two to five-year maximum deals.)
Let's break down the latest extensions and how they further weakened the class of 2020 free agents, which is looking increasingly unlikely to yield game-changing moves.
Boston Celtics
Signed wing Jaylen Brown to a reported four-year, $115 million extension
More than any other extension completed leading up to the deadline, I think the Brown deal reflects his team's reacting to how little talent will be available next summer.
As has been noted repeatedly, extending a rookie contract is unusual for the Celtics, who last did so with Rajon Rondo in 2009. Unlike the New York Knicks, who haven't handed out a rookie extension since they were introduced, Boston has had plenty of worthwhile draft picks in that span. The Celtics have simply been comfortable letting their players get to restricted free agency, re-signing both Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart while letting key contributors Kelly Olynyk and Terry Rozier leave when the team needed cap space to sign All-Stars Al Horford and Kemba Walker.
Boston could have done the same with Brown, but the team's willingness to guarantee him more than $100 million over the next four years suggests that the Celtics feared another team would swoop in with a max offer sheet worth an estimated $130 million over four years. It was possible if not likely that Brown would have emerged as the top wing on the market. Based on a combination of ESPN's real plus-minus and my SCHOENE projection system, I estimate Brown's value at 4.7 wins above replacement in 2020-21, more than any potential free agent on the wing.
In particular, Boston might have worried about a big offer from the Atlanta Hawks, Brown's hometown team. Depending on the development of recent first-round picks Kevin Huerter and De'Andre Hunter, Brown might have been an ideal target for the Hawks, who could create $70 million in cap space next summer. A max offer sheet for Brown would have meant a difficult decision for the Celtics.
At the same time, paying Brown like an above-average starting wing creates its own complications. Giving Brown such a big raise will push Boston into the luxury tax in 2020-21, presuming Gordon Hayward exercises his $34.2 million player option. Although that comes off the books the following summer, by then Jayson Tatum will be eligible for his own extension. Together, Brown, Tatum and Walker could make in the neighborhood of $90 million by 2021-22, swallowing the majority of the Celtics' salary cap.
That's fine if Brown and Tatum continue to develop into a top wing duo, keeping Boston in contention in the East. For that to happen, Brown needs to shoot more like he did in 2017-18, when he made 39.5% of his 3-point attempts. Right now, that looks like an outlier next to two campaigns in which Brown shot between 34% and 35% from long distance. Teamed with Walker and Tatum, Brown will always be a secondary source of shot creation, making it imperative that he space the floor while playing off the ball.
From Brown's standpoint, the upside of a big offer sheet next summer was countered by the possibility that he slipped back behind Hayward and Smart in the Celtics' wing rotation, limiting his opportunities. His production to date hasn't come close to meriting max money, so Brown still would have had something to prove despite the limited alternatives in free agency. It's understandable that he would want the security of getting this close to the max a year ahead of time.
Brooklyn Nets
Signed forward Taurean Prince to a reported two-year, $29 million extension
Having signed LeVert to a three-year, $52.5 million extension before training camp, the Nets locked in their other impending restricted free agent on an atypical rookie extension. According to my records, no player had previously signed a two-year rookie extension; even three-year deals are relatively uncommon for players coming off their rookie contracts.
From a financial standpoint, there's no clear benefit to Brooklyn in having Prince return to free agency unrestricted in the summer of 2022. That's a year before the big contracts the team signed this summer (Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and DeAndre Jordan) expire, as well as a year before LeVert's extension. It seems more likely, as my colleague Adrian Wojnarowski noted, that Prince pushed for the ability to get back in free agency while he's in his prime. He'll turn 28 after the 2021-22 season.
The $14.5 million annual value of Prince's deal compares to the two-year, $30 million deal Kelly Oubre signed with the Phoenix Suns as a restricted free agent over the summer. Prince's 3-and-D skill set makes him more valuable than Oubre to a contending team such as the Nets. He's a career 38% 3-point shooter with the ability to defend either forward spot, useful versatility as Brooklyn projects ahead to Kevin Durant's return in 2020-21.
Extending both LeVert and Prince will push the Nets into the tax in 2020-21, which makes sense for a team that will reasonably expect to contend for a championship with Durant.
Indiana Pacers
Signed post Domantas Sabonis to a reported four-year, $77 million extension
Over the weekend, Sabonis gave reporters an ominous quote about trade rumors involving him. "There's not really much to talk about," he said. "I know exactly how the Pacers feel about me now, they know how I feel about that, and there's not much more to say. Let my agents do the rest of it, and we'll see what happens."
Now he's signed for the next four years. Although that doesn't preclude a trade -- at least after this season, when the "poison pill provision" will make Sabonis difficult to trade because he counts for less in trade going out than to the team acquiring him -- it's a reminder that Indiana does value Sabonis, no matter what happened during extension negotiations.
The obvious comp for Sabonis' extension is the four-year, $72 million extension frontcourt-mate Myles Turner signed a year ago. Although Turner started ahead of him last season, Sabonis got slightly more guaranteed money, reflecting his productivity in a sixth-man role and his superior versatility. With both players starting together this season, it's Sabonis who will get the tougher task of chasing versatile power forwards on the perimeter.
How well the Sabonis-Turner frontcourt fares this season will likely determine whether the Pacers pursue a trade involving one of them. If Sabonis and Turner are both primarily centers, it's hard to justify spending a combined $37 million per year or so on what has been the easiest position to fill in the modern NBA. They showed some ability to play together last season, posting a plus-2.9 net rating in 429 minutes according to NBA Advanced Stats. But Nate McMillan was able to pick his spots to use Sabonis and Turner together when the former was coming off the bench, and there will surely be troublesome matchups against opposing starting fives.
On the plus side, we shouldn't consider Sabonis a finished product at age 23. He has been among the contenders for Most Improved Player two years in a row, with remarkable sustained improvement after a rough first season playing as a stretch-4 in Oklahoma City.
After Indiana used cap space this summer, the team's cap sheet is in good shape going forward. The Pacers should have plenty of flexibility to fill out their 2020-21 roster with 12 players under contract and somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million to spend before they reach the luxury tax. Although a max deal for Victor Oladipo in the summer of 2021 could complicate things, that's a long ways off and would be good news in terms of Oladipo returning healthy from his quadriceps tendon rupture.
Sacramento Kings
Signed guard Buddy Hield to a reported four-year, $94 million extension
Much like Sabonis, Hield went public with his frustrations about negotiation talks last week, telling reporters that he might need to "find a new home." Fortunately, such concerns will be forgotten after the two sides agreed to a deal that could pay him up to $106 million including incentives.
Locking in a deal now always seemed more appealing to Hield because, unlike for many other extension-eligible players, this might be his best chance at a big contract. Hield will turn 27 in December and be 31 by the time he returns to the market, so he'd have been taking the risk of never making up the money if he waited for restricted free agency.
From the Kings' standpoint, extending Hield will help clarify their decision-making on fellow wing Bogdan Bogdanovic, a restricted free agent next summer. Sacramento has already offered Bogdanovic the largest possible extension (four years, $51.4 million), he told the Sacramento Bee last week. Because Bogdanovic is not coming off a rookie scale contract, he doesn't have to decide on the extension until the end of the regular season.
If Bogdanovic gets too expensive, the Kings might have to walk away. With their raft of recent draft picks moving off rookie deals, Sacramento suddenly faces luxury-tax concerns. Starting Hield's extension at its maximum value and having it decline, much like the contract Harrison Barnes signed last summer, will help down the road but make things tighter next season. The Kings might need to waive forward Trevor Ariza, whose 2020-21 salary is $1.8 million guaranteed, in order to re-sign Bogdanovic and avoid the tax. The cap crunch will only get tighter with De'Aaron Fox eligible for an extension next summer (he's on track for a max deal) and Marvin Bagley the following year.
Having too much talent to retain is a good problem for Sacramento, which hadn't hit on a first-round pick since DeMarcus Cousins before landing Hield in the Cousins trade. Still, good problems are problems, too.
San Antonio Spurs
Signed guard Dejounte Murray to a reported four-year, $64 million extension
Of the extensions signed Monday, Murray's probably stands the best chance of being a favorable one for his team. If Murray picks up his development where he left off before suffering an ACL tear during the preseason in October 2018, he should be worth well more than $16 million per year the next four seasons.
Back in 2017-18, Murray replaced Tony Parker as San Antonio's starting point guard midseason at age 21 and was outstanding defensively. (I picked Murray for my All-Defensive First Team.) Offensively, Murray was limited, making just nine 3-pointers in 1,743 minutes. During the summer of 2018, the Spurs organization raved about his development as a shooter and scorer. The injury robbed us of the chance to see how that played out in the regular season.
Because of the injury, Murray had plenty of incentive to extend now. Players typically miss more time and are less effective on a per-minute basis the season after ACL injuries, and though Murray has played well in the preseason -- even making three of his five 3-point attempts -- he risked his value cratering with a disappointing season.
This deal also pays Murray like a starting point guard, giving him slightly less per season than the three-year, $51 million deal Ricky Rubio signed with the Phoenix Suns over the summer, so he's not completely settling. Still, Murray already rated as an average starting point guard in RPM in 2017-18 because of his defense -- he was actually one spot behind Rubio among point guards -- and given the tendency of point guards to develop well into their 20s, he has the chance to emerge as a top-10 player at the position by the end of this contract if the injury has no lasting effects.
The extension makes Murray the first Spurs player with a fully guaranteed salary for 2021-22. With the contracts of veteran stars LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan up by then, San Antonio will have the opportunity to build around a young core of talent headlined by Murray.
Toronto Raptors
Signed forward Pascal Siakam to a reported four-year, max extension
There was never much doubt that Siakam was going to get the max coming off winning Most Improved Player as the second-leading scorer on a championship team. The real question here was whether he'd sign an extension or the Raptors would wait and re-sign him as a restricted free agent, taking advantage of Siakam's small cap hold to create cap space next summer.
The one-year extension Toronto handed starting point guard Kyle Lowry helped clarify that decision by taking the Raptors out of the running for a max free agent in 2020 -- if there was even one worth pursuing. Toronto's real target for free agency is surely the star-studded summer of 2021, potentially led by reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Siakam's contract will assuredly be the same in 2021-22, whether he extended now or re-signed next summer, so the Raptors were probably wise to simply take care of him early and avoid any possible contract drama.
Utah Jazz
Signed forward Joe Ingles to a reported one-year, $14 million extension
The Jazz delivered the day's biggest surprise with a non-rookie extension. Monday was also the deadline to extend veteran contracts with two or more years remaining, and Utah gave Ingles an extra season that takes his deal through 2021-22.
I can't say I understand the urgency to get an Ingles extension done now. He would have been eligible for one next summer, heading into the final year of his contract, and by then the Jazz will know more about how Ingles will continue to hold up at age 32. So far, so good for Ingles in his 30s. Although I panned the four-year, $52 million Ingles signed in the summer of 2017, he has proven both me and the aging curve wrong by delivering the best performance of his late-starting NBA career in 2017-18 at age 30, with only minimal decline last season.
At some point, Father Time will catch Ingles, who will be 34 during the campaign this extension covers. Already, Utah's decision to move Ingles to the bench appears in part a concession to the heavy load he carried last season (starting all 82 games and averaging 31.3 minutes per game) at his age. The Jazz should better manage Ingles' minutes in a reserve role with more playmaking alternatives. If so, perhaps he can maintain enough value to be a quality contributor in 2021-22. Utah obviously knows Ingles and his potential better than I do, as well as to what extent this is a reward for his willingness to come off the bench. But I would have waited.