Which young NBA players will have breakout seasons in 2019-20?
There are plenty of paths to major and minor leaps for guys still on their rookie deals -- new environments, more minutes, improved conditioning. But for some, there's one swing skill integral to raising their ceiling.
Here, we break down five second- and third-year players who can make a jump this upcoming season and beyond by improving in one specific area. For three, we highlight the skills that can take them from good to great. For the other two, these skills will help them become established contributors after inconsistent starts.
Let's dive in.
Deandre Ayton | C | Phoenix Suns
Swing skill: Expanding his range
Ayton, who turned 21 in July, shined as one of Phoenix's few bright spots last season, averaging an impressive 16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 30.4 minutes per game on a struggling squad. Only 14 other players have hit such marks before reaching age 22, a list that includes Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Shaquille O'Neal. Even without a reliable point guard and few easy opportunities, Ayton seemingly jogged his way to double-doubles.
But even with his stellar box score production, Ayton (66th) landed well behind Luka Doncic (16th), Trae Young (28th) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (54th) in this year's NBArank. Ayton hasn't been viewed in the same class as his counterparts after just one professional season. For him to really become a franchise centerpiece who impacts winning, it's important that he add the floor spacing his biggest supporters envisioned him developing, myself included.
On one hand, you don't want to take Ayton away from the rim all the time. He was a monster in the paint last season with equal parts force, explosiveness and touch. He is a nimble roller with soft hands and excellent feel around the rim. According to Second Spectrum tracking, he posted a 76.3 effective field goal percentage (eFG) on 5.4 attempts inside the restricted area -- nearly 7 percentage points better than expected given the shot quality. Considering his above-average vision, Ayton figures to continually become more of a facilitator on short rolls to the rim.
On the flip side, Ayton made only 34% of his 125 jump shots as a rookie, ranking in the NBA's 11th percentile. He looks as if he is shooting darts when you stretch him beyond the elbows, and he has never had the feathery stroke of a player such as Towns. Although he is a career 76% free throw shooter on 425 attempts, according to Krossover, he has converted only 29% of his 3s on 197 shots since 2016. He also tends to fall in love with his midrange jumper.
For Ayton to live up to his draft selection at No. 1, it's important that he eventually extend his touch and add value as a floor spacer, particularly because of his defensive ups and downs. Among the 35 centers who played over 20 MPG last season, 17 attempted less than one trey per game. But a majority of those players fall into the defensive anchor category, including Rudy Gobert, Mitchell Robinson and Clint Capela. Unless Ayton is going to make a surprising and challenging leap on defense, adding a consistent 3-ball to his repertoire is the key to elevating his all-around impact, giving him the ability to exist in a variety of lineups for the long term.
Ayton becoming a league-average defender would be a win for the Suns. He ranked 47th among 65 centers in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus last season. So he'll have to be dominant offensively to generate a superstar impact, and a huge part of that potential dominance revolves around his spacing. Of course, in an ideal world, Ayton would evolve into a Joel Embiid-like defensive force before testing out his stretch ability. To me, though, it's more likely his path to stardom is as a pick-and-pop threat, which is in line with his approach to the game over the past few years.
Lauri Markkanen | F/C | Chicago Bulls
Swing skill: Facilitating
Although he was limited to only 51 games, the 22-year-old Finnish sharpshooter is coming off an excellent sophomore season, posting averages of 18.7 points and 9.1 rebounds in 32.2 MPG, while shooting 36% from 3 on high volume. But what could really take Markkanen's game to the next level is a sharper playmaking eye, especially when he is on the move.
Here's what makes Markkanen so intriguing: He is agile enough to function as far more than just a standstill perimeter shooter. With varying degrees of success, the Bulls have run Markkanen off pin-downs, used him as a 4/5 pick-and-roll ball handler and allowed him to push off the break. While that came under an offensively minded coach in Fred Hoiberg, there's clear value in a 7-footer who can shoot and attack out of different actions. It's hopefully something that Jim Boylen will try to employ, as well. Not always the most adept finisher in traffic, Markkanen being able to make his teammates better out of these situations should boost his overall efficiency and make him a more well-rounded offensive weapon.
He has long been a compliant passer who will adapt to his role, but he has never been great here, averaging 1.5 assists per 40 minutes in 210 career games, according to our scouting database. Because he isn't quite a consistent defensive force, it's important for Markkanen to continue diversifying his offensive game to maximize his on-court impact. The next step in doing that -- along with improving his ability to punish switches -- is making the necessary quick-action reads to get his teammates open looks.
In the past, Markkanen often has been too predictable attacking off the dribble, always wanting to get to his left hand. Becoming a more versatile ball handler and facilitator could make him one of the league's standout offensive pieces.
Jayson Tatum | F | Boston Celtics
Swing skill: Embracing more 3s
Tatum is a big-time talent at a position every NBA team covets. He is a natural on the floor with one of the smoothest scoring packages in the league. But for Tatum to truly make the jump into All-Star status and franchise cornerstone, it's key for him to rely less on contested midrange pull-ups and show more comfort stepping into open 3s, while eventually extending his pull-up range beyond the arc à la Paul George.
The numbers also support this notion. According to Second Spectrum data, Tatum fired 2.7 catch-and-shoots per game last season, posting an eFG of 57.3. As a rookie, he was even more impressive, cashing 64% of such attempts, 10.2 percentage points higher than expected given the shot quality.
As has been the case since his high school days, though, Tatum too often turns down rhythm 3s for heavily contested pull-up 2s. While his footwork getting to midrange spots is part of what makes him so tough to guard, he needs to become more efficient off the bounce before he can justify settling for some of these fallaways. Among the 29 players to take over 300 pull-up jumpers last season, Tatum ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Andrew Wiggins.
Although it is thanks in part to his role, Tatum took almost twice as many pull-ups as catch-and shoot jumpers last season. The fact that he has the ability to get tough pull-ups at will should prove useful down the line, especially as a playoff closer, but in the interim, becoming more efficient in his role is key.
Fewer hesitant shot fakes and more focused 3s will force aggressive closeouts, allowing Tatum to swoop to the rim, thanks to his fluidity and length. Should Tatum become more comfortable knocking down spot-ups while eventually adding the pull-up 3 to his repertoire, he'll surely be considered one of the NBA's premier perimeter scorers for years to come.
Frank Ntilikina | New York Knicks
Swing skill: Spot-up 3s
Ntilikina finally has positive momentum heading into an NBA season, fresh off a strong FIBA World Cup stint with the French national team. Desperately needing to show signs of improvement, the 2017 top-10 pick might indeed be the best fit alongside Knicks rookie RJ Barrett, as long as he can make enough spot-up 3s to keep defenses honest.
For all the talk of a point guard battle between Dennis Smith Jr., Ntilikina and Elfrid Payton in New York, the reality is that Barrett figures to function as David Fizdale's jumbo shot-creator. That's why the Knicks drafted the ultra-confident 6-foot-7 lefty -- to generate the majority of their offense for years to come. That means Barrett needs a PG who can play off the ball, make a spot-up 3 consistently and defend either backcourt spot capably.
Of New York's three PG options, Ntilikina is really the only one who comes close to meeting those qualifications, but he is going to have to develop into a more serviceable catch-and-shoot threat to fulfill that role. With shooting limitations across the roster, the Knicks need Ntilikina to make open 3s more than ever. That's been a struggle for the former Strasbourg product through two seasons. While he did show some promise by ranking in the 45th percentile on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers as a rookie, he posted an eFG of just 42.5% on such shots in 43 games last season, 12.9% worse than expected given the shot quality, per Second Spectrum.
Thankfully for the Knicks, Ntilikina looked much more confident and comfortable with France this summer -- thanks in part to the FIBA 3-point line but mostly thanks to his role. Ntilikina functioned much more as a combo guard, playing off ball-dominant shot creators Evan Fournier and Nando De Colo. Ntilikina's ball-screen possessions often came against a scrambling defense, which led to better decisions and increased efficiency around the rim.
Ntilikina's true value might never show until he is on a contender, a team with which he can focus on defending, making open shots and moving the ball. For now, though, if he can improve his catch-and-shoot reliability and add more variety finishing his drives, he'll win out as the best fit alongside Barrett in New York's backcourt.
Lonzo Ball | New Orleans Pelicans
Swing skill: Pick-and-roll game
Ball has always been an unconventional guard who thrives on pushing tempo, moving the rock, creating opportunities as a cutter and reading a scrambling defense with his stellar basketball IQ. Since making the jump to the NBA, he has turned himself into a high-level defender who also can stick his nose in on the defensive glass. He should be able to carve out a valuable role with the Pelicans using those strengths.
Not to take him away from his bread and butter, but for Ball to surpass his predicted NBArank (No. 68), improving his pick-and-roll game should be a priority in the long term. The most important elements here: making shots when the defender goes under screens, changing pace to get to his spots, becoming savvier with his reads and adding more variety to his finishing package. While he might spend a decent amount of time off the ball, his pick-and-roll attack starts with making pull-up 3s when defenders disrespect his range. Ball has been far from prolific off the bounce, and he still has room to improve going to his right.
If he is able to force defenders to go over ball screens, Ball can then do a better job of manipulating defenses with his eyes and delivering the necessary passes we see from the top pick-and-roll artists. He has long been a one-speed ball handler against a set defense. Adding more stop-and-start to his game would be beneficial in setting up his passes, especially given his advantageous size at 6-6. Learning how to put defenders in jail and keep dropped bigs on their toes would diversify his ball-screen attack and allow him to further tap into his passing IQ.
Whether it's a rifle to the roller, a hook pass to the pop man or a laser to the weakside corner after sucking in the tag man, Ball has never been one to pick apart defenses in the half court. Which is why some scouts suggested after his stellar season at UCLA that he is better playing next to a guard who is oriented more toward the pick-and-roll. But given the league's pick-and-roll reliance and Ball's strong feel, there's reason to believe he can develop this skill.
The last element here is his finishing package. Ball simply lacks the deceptive finishes and at-rim touch you see from elite guards. Through 99 career NBA games, he has shot 50% at the rim and 25.9% on floaters (on only 54 attempts). After nearly breaking statistical models with his 67.9 true shooting percentage (TS%) at UCLA, Ball has a 46.3 TS% so far in his NBA career. Only three other players logged 30 MPG with a TS% worse than 50 last season: Kris Dunn, Andrew Wiggins and Russell Westbrook.
When Ball's jumper is falling -- it already looks better with a wider base -- his defense, cutting and ball-moving skills should make him a positive contributor in New Orleans. Overall, I'm a firm believer that he is poised for a bounce-back year after the Pelicans nabbed him when his value might never be lower. But his path to really leveling up starts with adding nuance to his pick-and-roll attack, as a scorer and as a facilitator.