As the rest of the Western Conference's contenders had seized the opportunity created by injuries to and defections from the five-time defending conference champion Golden State Warriors, the Denver Nuggets -- who finished second to the Warriors during the 2018-19 regular season and were a game away from facing them in the conference finals -- had stood pat this offseason.
That changed Monday, as the Nuggets struck a deal to use a trade exception to add Jerami Grant from the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for a 2020 first-round pick. Grant effectively becomes Denver's pickup in free agency, while the Thunder continue shedding salary and accumulating first-round picks in the wake of last weekend's stunning Paul George trade. Let's look at the implications for both sides.
Denver Nuggets get: Jerami Grant
Oklahoma City Thunder get: 2020 first-round pick
Get more trade grades for every deal here.
Denver Nuggets: B
After Marcus Morris committed to sign with the San Antonio Spurs over the weekend, there was no longer any unrestricted free agent worth the Nuggets using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception. Instead, Denver turned to a trade exception from last year's tax-avoiding deals to add Grant's salary without sending any in return.
(The fact that the Nuggets will use an exception from the Wilson Chandler trade on the day it expires makes it sound like this deal had to happen Monday, but Denver also had a slightly larger exception from trading Kenneth Faried that expires Saturday and will now likely go unused.)
Grant's combination of strong defense at power forward and improving 3-point shooting could be perfect for the Nuggets, assuming the latter is legitimate improvement. Grant shot 39% beyond the arc last season after entering it having made just 30% of his career 3-point attempts. I wouldn't expect Grant to keep that up, but as long as he can stay around league average (35.5%), he'll provide valuable floor spacing.
Basically, Grant profiles as a lesser version of Denver starter Paul Millsap. The Nuggets have relied on Millsap's defense to supplement starting center Nikola Jokic, an underrated defender who's nonetheless not a reliable rim protector. Millsap can help in that regard, and so can Grant, whose career block rate (4.0% of opponent 2-point attempts) is slightly better than league average for centers (3.8%).
Millsap had Denver's largest differential in terms of on/off-court net rating during the 2018-19 regular season. The Nuggets outscored opponents by 8.6 points per 100 possessions with Millsap on the court, according to NBA Advanced Stats, but had a minus-0.3 net rating with him on the bench.
Some of that is due to Millsap playing most of his minutes with Jokic, but Trey Lyles -- a restricted free agent whose qualifying offer Denver will now surely pull, facilitating his departure -- was found wanting as a backup. The Nuggets will now get 48 minutes of strong defense at power forward as well as insurance in case Millsap, who turns 35 in February, misses an extended period due to injury.
Crucially, Denver also gets full Bird rights on Grant if he declines his $9.3 million player option for 2020-21 and hits the market as an unrestricted free agent. Millsap will be an unrestricted free agent next summer, and the Nuggets will probably have to decide between the two given looming tax issues when a max extension for point guard Jamal Murray kicks in.
Speaking of the tax: Though Denver is currently $1.9 million under the tax line according to calculations by my ESPN colleague Bobby Marks, avoiding it still could force the Nuggets to make moves before the deadline. They'll presumably fill out their roster by signing second-round pick Bol Bol and leave their 15th spot unused to avoid pushing into the tax based on current calculations.
Those calculations, however, are subject to change based on incentives in the contracts of Jokic, Millsap and guard Gary Harris. If it becomes clear that Harris' incentives are likely to be paid after an injury-plagued 2018-19 season left them unlikely, Denver will probably have to move a salary from the bench. (Forward Juan Hernangomez, who's been in and out of the rotation and could be attractive to analytics-heavy teams heading into restricted free agency, is a likely candidate.)
Giving up a first-round pick for a year of Grant coming off the bench wouldn't really be worth it, so it's tough to assess this deal before seeing whether the Nuggets re-sign him next summer. In that case, they'll be able to pay more for Grant while staying over the cap and retaining the rights to their other free agents, which would justify the cost to get him.
Oklahoma City Thunder: A-
Moving Grant's salary gives the Thunder additional flexibility as they figure out the rest of the offseason. Oklahoma City is now within striking distance of getting out of the tax entirely, and could get out by trading the modest $5.7 million salary of forward Patrick Patterson to a team with space or an exception to take him in without sending any salary in return.
Hypothetically, that would allow the Thunder to play out the season with something resembling the team's current roster post-George trade. Danilo Gallinari, acquired from the Clippers in that deal, would slide into Grant's spot at power forward with defensive-minded players (a healthy Andre Roberson, for one) replacing George on the wing.
Realistically, however, trading Grant is probably another part of Oklahoma City's teardown. In that case, the big implication for the Thunder is that this trade reduces the need for save money (and get out of the tax) as part of a trade involving former MVP Russell Westbrook. In other words, given the Thunder's most likely trade partners right now are dealing with their own tax/hard cap issues, that opens up Oklahoma City's options in such a trade.
At 25, Grant was young enough to be part of a post-Westbrook future in OKC. But re-signing him as an unrestricted free agent next summer could have been costly for a team looking to maximize flexibility, and a first-round pick is good value in return. Recall that Oklahoma City gave up a heavily protected first-round pick to get Grant from the Philadelphia 76ers back when he was still making the minimum. With the Thunder stepping back from contention, that pick (top-20 protected this season) will almost certainly not convey and will instead convert into second-round picks in 2022 and 2023.