On Monday afternoon, the Miami Heat's sign-and-trade deal for Jimmy Butler and trade sending Hassan Whiteside to the Portland Trail Blazers merged into one, behemoth four-team move that allows the Heat to add Butler.
The LA Clippers emerged as the fourth team necessary to make the money work for the Heat and Philadelphia 76ers, getting a first-round pick to take Portland forward Maurice Harkless into their cap space.
With starting center Jusuf Nurkic coming back from a compound fracture of his left tibia and fibula, the Blazers add an expensive insurance policy in the form of Whiteside, who will make $27.1 million in the final season of his contract.
How did all four teams make out? Let's unpack the many, many details.
Miami Heat get: Jimmy Butler, Meyers Leonard
Philadelphia 76ers get: Josh Richardson
LA Clippers get: Maurice Harkless, 2023 first-round pick (via MIA)
Portland Trail Blazers get: Hassan Whiteside
Get more trade grades for every deal here.
Miami Heat: B
It certainly would have been a lot easier for the Heat to give up Richardson last November and trade for Butler then, a move that would have enabled them to re-sign him without triggering the hard cap of $138.9 million created by acquiring him via sign-and-trade. (Conversely, maybe Miami is better off for not being able to offer Butler a fifth year on his max deal.)
Those complications, and the desire of the Sixers not to take back any player but Richardson, forced this trade to grow. Ultimately, Miami gave up Richardson, Whiteside and a first-round pick for Butler and Leonard, a deal that makes the Heat better in the short term and possibly more attractive to free agents down the road. I suppose I like this version somewhat better than giving up point guard Goran Dragic, a key part of the 2019-20 rotation.
After having too many quality players and not enough star talent, Miami could be short on depth this season because of the hard cap. Between moves late last season and so far this summer, as well as the retirement of Dwyane Wade, the Heat have lost almost half of last season's minutes played while adding just the two veteran players acquired in this deal.
Miami almost certainly won't be able to offer any free agents more than the veteran's minimum. The Heat could still use another wing to supplement a rotation of Butler, Dion Waiters, Derrick Jones and 2019 draft picks Tyler Herro and KZ Okpala. Another frontcourt option would also be nice to go along with Bam Adebayo, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and Leonard. We'll see whether Pat Riley can convince quality players to sign on at the minimum.
For now, the Heat look headed for a win total in the high 40s, good enough to get them back into the playoffs. Miami's real transformation could come in the summer of 2021, when contracts for Johnson, Olynyk and Waiters all expire. At this point, the Heat have just three players under contract for 2021-22: Butler, Herro and Justise Winslow. Add in a $15.3 million cap hold for Adebayo and Miami could once again have cap space to pursue a max free agent without needing a sign-and-trade. As this deal again proves, never doubt Riley's ability to recruit stars to South Beach.
Philadelphia 76ers: A
Although I like this trade for the Heat, I love it for the Sixers because of their ability to use the difference in salary between Richardson ($10.1 million) and Butler ($32.7 million) in free agency. As I often try to reinforce, a player's trade value is a product of his on-court production minus his salary. This trade makes that clear because Philadelphia could immediately offer the extra $22 million to free agent Al Horford, whose guaranteed salary (not counting incentives for championships reported by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski) should start at $22.6 million.
Given the choice between Butler and both Horford and Richardson, I'd take the latter package, particularly for a team like the 76ers in need of additional depth. Making this trade allowed Philadelphia to fill out a strong starting five that's less expensive than re-signing Butler and JJ Redick would have been.
As I noted in yesterday's Sixers analysis, there are still concerns for Philadelphia, most notably how to replace Butler's important role in its late-game offense. The 76ers also must fill out their own bench, currently populated almost exclusively by first- and second-year players. Still, I think this move brought Philadelphia closer to sustainable success.
LA Clippers: A
I like that this deal makes sense for the Clippers whether they're able to sign Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard as a free agent or not. The Clippers had more cap space available than Leonard's $32.7 million maximum, and my expectation had been that they'd use the remaining money on a forward capable of stepping in to start when Leonard missed games for load management. Those players like Al-Farouq Aminu and Thaddeus Young quickly went off the board in free agency, leaving the Clippers with relatively few options to supplement Leonard if they get him.
Enter Harkless, who started 158 of the 196 games he played in Portland over the past three seasons. A solid defender who has been up and down from 3-point range (he shot 41.5% beyond the arc in 2017-18 before slipping to 27.5% in 2018-19 while battling persistent soreness in his left knee), Harkless is an overqualified reserve option and would be a capable fill-in for Leonard.
At $11.0 million, Harkless just about fits perfectly into the Clippers' remaining cap space beyond a max slot. They could get back to full max space if Leonard commits by either rescinding their qualifying offer to restricted free agent Rodney McGruder -- while retaining full Bird rights to re-sign him -- or waiving either Sindarius Thornwell or Tyrone Wallace, whose 2019-20 salaries are currently non-guaranteed.
Because Harkless is in the last year of his contract, he also fits if Leonard signs a short-term deal to remain with the Toronto Raptors and the Clippers want to maintain max cap space for the summer of 2020. They'll have full Bird rights to re-sign Harkless but no obligation to him beyond this season.
If the Clippers had simply gotten Harkless for free, that would have probably been about a B-grade move considering the alternative uses of the cap space. For them to get a first-round pick for their trouble makes this a clear A.
Portland Trail Blazers: C+
The most obvious implication for the Blazers is concern about the timetable for Nurkic's return to the court after his injury, suffered in late March. Paul George returned eight months after suffering a similar injury in August 2014, and that aggressive timeline would put Nurkic back a month into the season. I would expect a comeback to take much longer for Nurkic, a bigger player at a listed 275 pounds than the wings who have suffered recent compound fractures in the NBA. (Gordon Hayward of the Boston Celtics didn't face the same kind of pressure on his return timetable because he was injured on opening night and able to come back during training camp 11 months later.)
As we saw last season with Hayward, expecting Nurkic to be the same player immediately after returning from such an extended absence isn't realistic. Adding an experienced starter will allow Portland to bring Nurkic back slowly.
But that move carries a price in terms of the team's growing payroll. Because Whiteside will make $5 million more this season than Harkless and Leonard combined, and because the Blazers now have an extra roster spot to fill, they're looking at adding approximately $14 million to their luxury-tax bill and $21 million to their total payroll.
Under late owner Paul Allen, spending that kind of money would have been no obstacle. With Allen's sister, Jody, running his estate after his death on the eve of the 2018-19 season, there might be higher expectations for Portland spending deep into the tax after an unexpected trip to the Western Conference finals. Given how much that run depended on the West playoff picture breaking correctly on the last night of the season, the Blazers must try to keep expectations realistic.
The other cost of this trade is another hit to Portland's forward depth. Both of the Blazers' 2018-19 starters are now gone, with Harkless headed to Miami and power forward Al-Farouq Aminu agreeing to sign with Orlando on a reported three-year, $29 million deal.
Aminu and Harkless were Portland's two best perimeter defenders, a role the Blazers are now counting on newcomer Kent Bazemore to play. Portland will get much smaller on the wing with Bazemore and Rodney Hood (who agreed Sunday to re-sign) supplanting Harkless, and Zach Collins presumably will play a larger role at power forward with Aminu's departure.
So is Whiteside worth all that? The answer depends on what Blazers coach Terry Stotts can get out of him. Whiteside went from max signing to afterthought with the Heat over the course of three seasons, losing his starting job to second-year center Bam Adebayo during the last 19 games of the 2018-19 season. Miami defended better with Adebayo in the middle, allowing two fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Despite that track record, Whiteside looks like an ideal fit for Stotts' defensive scheme, which asks centers to stay around the basket as much as possible rather than venture outside the paint to defend pick-and-rolls. When he's in position, Whiteside -- who led the NBA in block rate in 2015-16 -- remains a formidable obstacle for opponents. According to Second Spectrum tracking data on NBA Advanced Stats, only Derrick Favors of the Utah Jazz allowed a lower shooting percentage to opponents within 5 feet (50.1%) than Whiteside (50.7%) last season among players who defended at least four such shots per game. (Nurkic was 14th in this category at 55.2%.)
To keep Whiteside happy, Portland will want to feed him some of the post touches that went to Nurkic and his replacement, Enes Kanter. Per Second Spectrum tracking data, Nurkic averaged 7.6 post-ups per 100 possessions during the 2018-19 regular season and Kanter 12.8 after joining the Blazers. That's more than the 5.8 post-ups per 100 possessions Whiteside got with the Heat, though he was also less efficient on those opportunities (0.8 points per chance) than Nurkic (0.89) or Kanter (a robust 1.09).
Though Whiteside isn't the kind of playmaker from the high post that Nurkic is, he should fit right into Portland's pick-and-roll game. Whiteside set 58.9 screens per 100 possessions last season, via Second Spectrum data, more even than Nurkic (50.9).
Dealing for Whiteside has the potential to backfire for the Blazers if he's unhappy in a contract year, particularly if he loses playing time to Nurkic after the latter's return. And I'm concerned about how small Portland now is on the wing with the loss of Harkless. But if Portland gets a content Whiteside motivated to earn another big contract, his production at center could help the Blazers thrive during Nurkic's absence.