How do the top NBA free agents on the market this summer project statistically?
We're less than a week away from the market opening up for negotiations, starting Sunday (teams can't officially sign players until after the league's moratorium ends on July 6), meaning all the speculation about how this offseason could shake up the NBA is close to becoming reality.
A key question: How will these players perform over the next three years? I've put together three-year projections. Let's take a look at the top 30.
My projections are stated in terms of wins above replacement player (WARP), factoring in two different metrics: the results of my SCHOENE projection system that uses the development of similar players at the same age based on box score stats and ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) to incorporate how players have impacted team performance while on the court.
Though stars will typically sign for more than three years and older players might be on shorter contracts, three years offers a good idea of the value players will provide on their next deals -- with some notable exceptions, which we'll discuss as part of the rankings.
More: Free-agent lists | Cap space breakdown
1. Kawhi Leonard
Toronto Raptors
Forward
Age: 28 (on June 29)
Player option
Projected three-year WARP: 41.9
Potential fits: Raptors, Clippers, Lakers, Knicks, Nets
Leonard put together one of the best postseason runs in modern NBA history to lead the Raptors to their first NBA championship. Now he hits unrestricted free agency for the first time, with the possibility of an unprecedented departure by the best player on a title-winning team.
Barring a recurrence of the quadriceps issues that sidelined him for much of the 2017-18 season, Leonard should remain one of the league's best players through the duration of his next deal, as he's just about to celebrate his 28th birthday.
2018-19 RPM: +3.3 | 2018-19 WARP: 12.7
2. Kyrie Irving
Boston Celtics
Guard
Age: 27
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 37.9
Potential fits: Nets, Knicks, Lakers
There's a reason Irving is still in high demand despite the headaches he caused the Celtics last season. Irving's 13.1 WARP was good for ninth in the league, and at 27 he's just hitting his peak. So Irving's value should hold better on his next contract than that of some of the older players on the market.
2018-19 RPM: +4.2 | 2018-19 WARP: 13.1
3. Jimmy Butler
Philadelphia 76ers
Forward/Guard
Age: 29
Player option
Projected three-year WARP: 37.4
Potential fits: 76ers, Nets, Clippers, Knicks, Lakers, Rockets
Butler's value is driven largely by his strong rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). Butler's 4.7 mark last season ranked 14th in the league, and he was even better in 2017-18, finishing fourth with a +6.4 mark. As a result, Butler's 2019-20 RPM projection is best of any free agent's.
2018-19 RPM: +4.7 | 2018-19 WARP: 10.0
4. Kemba Walker
Charlotte Hornets
Guard
Age: 29
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 33.9
Potential fits: Hornets, Mavericks, Lakers, Knicks
Given the historical tendency for undersized point guards to age rapidly in their 30s, it's reasonable to wonder about a multiyear deal for Walker. SCHOENE offers hope about his production over the next three seasons, pegging him for double-digit WARP throughout that span -- typically good enough for All-Star selection or consideration.
2018-19 RPM: +2.8 | 2018-19 WARP: 12.3
5. Kevin Durant
Golden State Warriors
Forward
Age: 30
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 30.6
Potential fits: Warriors, Nets, Knicks, Clippers
Based on reporting that Durant won't play at all during the 2019-20 season after his Achilles rupture during the NBA Finals, I've zeroed out his projection for the upcoming year. That probably underrates Durant's value a little bit, since he'll likely sign a four-year contract if he leaves the Warriors or a five-year contract if he re-signs with Golden State. So Durant's new team will be losing one out of four or five years to injury, not one out of three as shown here based on the maximum timeline of SCHOENE projections.
On the other hand, I have not adjusted Durant's 2020-21 and 2021-22 projections, even though it's possible he returns as a lesser player after the injury. Subjectively, I would say Leonard and Irving are now better bets over the life of a four-year contract, though Durant remains one of the best free agents available despite his injury.
2018-19 RPM: +5.0 | 2018-19 WARP: 13.4
6. D'Angelo Russell
Brooklyn Nets
Guard
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 29.0
Potential fits: Nets, Pacers, Magic
The youngest of the All-Star free agents on the market, Russell's projections improve over the next three years as he approaches his peak age. By the end of that period, he projects nearly as valuable as Irving despite that possible switch being a significant potential upgrade for Brooklyn in 2019-20.
If the Nets are forced to renounce their rights to Russell to clear cap space for two max additions, point guard-needy teams ought to strike quickly.
2018-19 RPM: +1.5 | 2018-19 WARP: 9.9
7. Kristaps Porzingis
Dallas Mavericks
Forward/Center
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 21.3
Potential fits: Mavericks
Given the overwhelming likelihood he re-signs in Dallas after the team gave up two first-round picks, 2017 lottery pick Dennis Smith Jr. and cap flexibility to get him, it's easy to forget that Porzingis is still a restricted free agent this summer. The Mavericks will most likely come to a quick agreement to prevent another team from coming in with an offer sheet that would potentially increase Porzingis' cap hold to the max.
2018-19 RPM: N/A | 2018-19 WARP: N/A
8. Khris Middleton
Milwaukee Bucks
Forward/Guard
Age: 27
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 19.1
Potential fits: Bucks, Mavericks, Nets, Clippers, Knicks
There's a sizable drop-off in the projections from Russell to Middleton, the top player in the second tier of free agents (other than Porzingis, who's expected to stay in Dallas).
Despite making his All-Star debut last season, Middleton actually rated as less valuable by WARP than in his previous two healthy campaigns and he was third on the Bucks in value during the regular season behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe.
As a result, a max deal for Middleton will probably prove an overpay, albeit perhaps a necessary one for Milwaukee given that his modest $19.5 million cap hold would make Middleton tough to replace if he heads elsewhere.
2018-19 RPM: +1.9 | 2018-19 WARP: 6.1
9. Malcolm Brogdon
Milwaukee Bucks
Guard
Age: 26
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 18.5
Potential fits: Bucks, Bulls, Suns
By the advanced numbers, Brogdon was more valuable than Middleton to Milwaukee last season. He rated better by RPM, and Middleton's WARP advantage is entirely due to the 13 games Brogdon missed when he suffered a plantar fascia injury late in the regular season. Brogdon was a more efficient scorer in 2018-19, is a superior defender and is a year younger. And his cap hold ($3 million) is even smaller than Middleton's.
So there's a case to be made that if Brogdon gets a giant offer sheet as a restricted free agent and the Bucks are forced to choose one of their two starting wings to retain, they should in fact go with Brogdon and not Middleton despite the latter's longer track record as a starter and advantage in shot creation.
2018-19 RPM: +2.0 | 2018-19 WARP: 5.6
10. Tobias Harris
Philadelphia 76ers
Forward
Age: 26
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 18.3
Potential fits: 76ers, Nets, Knicks
Like Middleton, Harris is a second-tier free agent likely to get paid like a top-tier one because of the combination of the number of teams with max cap space and his own team's desire to keep a contending core intact.
Harris is an excellent scorer, capable of creating his own shot with reasonable efficiency as well as being a dangerous spot-up threat. But his low steal rate limits Harris' defensive value.
2018-19 RPM: +1.6 | 2018-19 WARP: 7.0
11. Klay Thompson
Golden State Warriors
Guard
Age: 29
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 18.2
Potential fits: Warriors
Before his ACL injury during Game 6 of the NBA Finals, Thompson would have rated in the top tier of free agents rather than the middle of the second tier.
As with Durant, I've changed his 2019-20 projection -- in this case reducing Thompson's output by three-quarters based on the reporting that he hopes to return midseason -- while leaving his 2020-21 and 2021-22 projections untouched.
2018-19 RPM: -0.3 | 2018-19 WARP: 6.6
12. Jeremy Lamb
Charlotte Hornets
Guard/Forward
Age: 27
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 17.6
Potential fits: Hornets, Lakers, Magic
Deep under the radar, Lamb emerged as one of the league's most effective wings last season, averaging 15.3 points with league-average efficiency and reasonable defense at positions that are tough for most teams to fill. His RPM ranked eighth in the league among players listed as shooting guards, and at 27 Lamb is in his prime.
Given Charlotte's tax concerns if Walker re-signs, a run at Lamb would be a wise investment for a wing-needy team, though it's difficult to see exactly who that might be unless the Lakers show interest or Orlando needs a replacement for free agent Terrence Ross.
2018-19 RPM: +1.5 | 2018-19 WARP: 6.4
13. Nikola Mirotic
Milwaukee Bucks
Forward
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 17.4
Potential fits: Jazz, Celtics, Pacers, Kings
Despite a poorly timed postseason shooting slump that cost him a rotation spot in the last two games of the Eastern Conference finals, Mirotic should be a coveted free agent as the top stretch-4 available for less than the max.
Mirotic will likely be expendable if the Bucks can re-sign their starters, so he's a good target for teams that want to strike quickly in free agency.
2018-19 RPM: +1.7 | 2018-19 WARP: 4.2
14. Danny Green
Toronto Raptors
Forward/Guard
Age: 32
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 17.3
Potential fits: Raptors, Lakers, Pacers
Essentially thrown into Toronto's deal for Leonard, Green shot a career-best 45.5% from 3-point range and played his typically strong perimeter defense, ranking just outside the NBA's top 10 in RPM.
Green's 3-point shooting was more uneven during the playoffs and he turned 32 over the weekend, but he's still the best 3-and-D option that will cost less than the max.
2018-19 RPM: +4.7 | 2018-19 WARP: 7.1
15. JJ Redick
Philadelphia 76ers
Guard
Age: 35
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 16.9
Potential fits: 76ers, Lakers, Knicks, Nets
The oldest of the top 30 free agents, as he's celebrating his 35th birthday on Monday, Redick has remained productive into his mid-30s and the value of his elite shooting won't soon fade. After playing the past two seasons on one-year deals in Philadelphia, Redick could be looking to cash in on a final long-term deal now that the Sixers can exceed the cap to re-sign him using early Bird rights.
2018-19 RPM: +1.2 | 2018-19 WARP: 6.6
16. Delon Wright
Memphis Grizzlies
Guard
Age: 27
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 16.3
Potential fits: Grizzlies, Suns, Bulls, Magic
Acquired by the Grizzlies as part of the return for Marc Gasol, Wright averaged 15.0 points, 7.8 assists and 7.6 rebounds in 11 starts with Memphis -- including three triple-doubles in the season's last four games.
Because he was drafted at age 23, Wright is unusually old for a restricted free agent, but he still could merit a starting role on a team willing to pay more than the Grizzlies would after drafting Ja Morant No. 2 overall.
2018-19 RPM: +1.2 | 2018-19 WARP: 4.8
17. Tyus Jones
Minnesota Timberwolves
Guard
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 16.0
Potential fits: Timberwolves, Suns, Bulls, Magic
A longtime RPM standout, Jones ranked in the top 10 among point guards in 2017-18 before regressing to the mean last season.
Jones must become a more consistent 3-point shooter (32% last season, 33% career), but he's a reliable playmaker who rates well defensively because of his strong steal rate.
It's unclear how new Timberwolves president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas views Jones' future with veteran starter Jeff Teague heading into the final year of his contract.
2018-19 RPM: +0.8 | 2018-19 WARP: 1.7
18. Terrence Ross
Orlando Magic
Guard/Forward
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 14.7
Potential fits: Magic, Lakers
Ross led all NBA reserves last season with 217 3-pointers, the fourth-highest total in NBA history for a bench player, according to Basketball-Reference.com. His career-high 15.1 PPG also put him among the leading bench scorers in 2018-19.
Given his defensive limitations, Ross is probably best off staying in a sixth-man role.
2018-19 RPM: 0.4 | 2018-19 WARP: 5.9
19. Kelly Oubre Jr.
Phoenix Suns
Forward/Guard
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 13.7
Potential fits: Suns, Kings
After much confusion over where he was headed in the Trevor Ariza trade, Oubre settled in Phoenix and averaged 16.9 points on league average efficiency the rest of the season.
At 23, Oubre may have more development ahead, particularly if he can improve on 32% career 3-point shooting. That could produce a market of about $15 million for Oubre, though it's unclear which team would be willing to make such an offer sheet if the Suns try to slow-play his free agency.
2018-19 RPM: -1.2 | 2018-19 WARP: 3.8
20. Nikola Vucevic
Orlando Magic
Center
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 13.3
Potential fits: Magic, Kings, Celtics
Vucevic is the top center in these rankings but just 20th overall, a discrepancy driven by the high replacement level for players at the position.
However, Vucevic still posted 9.7 WARP last season despite that change to my metric, so Vucevic's projection also reflects how out of line that 2018-19 performance was with the rest of his career. Never previously considered even an average defender, Vucevic anchored a top-10 defense under new coach Steve Clifford and ranked eighth in the entire NBA in defensive RPM.
Whether that performance was a fluke will determine how valuable Vucevic is on his next contract.
2018-19 RPM: 5.5 | 2018-19 WARP: 9.7
21. Rudy Gay
San Antonio Spurs
Forward
Age: 32
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 12.9
Potential fits: Spurs, Clippers
Gay has moved past an Achilles rupture in early 2017 to put together two of his better NBA seasons in San Antonio, posting a career-best 58.3 true shooting percentage in 2018-19 thanks to 40% 3-point accuracy.
He could be a strong candidate for a big one-year deal from a team like the Clippers that misses out on star targets but wants to maintain cap space for 2020.
2018-19 RPM: 2.2 | 2018-19 WARP: 4.8
22. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
L.A. Lakers
Guard
Age: 26
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 12.0
Potential fits: Lakers, Magic
Given the low replacement level at shooting guard, the toughest spot for teams to fill from a statistical perspective, the much-maligned Caldwell-Pope was actually reasonably productive while making $12 million last season for the Lakers.
If Caldwell-Pope can repeat his possibly fluky 38% 3-point shooting from 2017-18, he could be a bargain on his next contract.
2018-19 RPM: -0.8 | 2018-19 WARP: 4.7
23. Ricky Rubio
Utah Jazz
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 11.9
Potential fits: Pacers
After shooting a career-best 35% on 3-pointers in 2017-18, Rubio regressed to 31% last season, an issue for a Utah team short on shooting. As a result, the Jazz have already moved on by dealing for veteran Mike Conley as Rubio's replacement.
Rubio remains a top-tier distributor and defender, but those skills may start to slip as he heads into his 30s.
2018-19 RPM: 1.4 | 2018-19 WARP: 2.3
24. Patrick Beverley
LA Clippers
Guard
Age: 30
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 11.4
Potential fits: Clippers, Lakers, Suns, Pacers, Bulls
Because his 3-and-D skill set is ideal to complement lead ball handlers at shooting guard, Beverley could find a robust market for his services four years after settling for a deal that paid him an average of less than $6 million per season.
Buyers should beware of Beverley dealing with injuries as he ages -- he'll turn 31 shortly into free agency -- but in the short term, he'll be a key player.
2018-19 RPM: 2.7 | 2018-19 WARP: 4.5
25. Darren Collison
Indiana Pacers
Guard
Age: 31
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 11.1
Potential fits: Lakers, Clippers, Pistons, Hornets
Despite starting all 76 games he played for the Pacers last season, Collison may be headed for a reserve role given his combination of age and size (listed at 6-foot), which limits him defensively against the best point guards.
Collison can have plenty of value in that role thanks to his sure-handed play and excellent 3-point shooting (39% career).
2018-19 RPM: 1.0 | 2018-19 WARP: 6.0
26. Al Horford
Boston Celtics
Center/Forward
Age: 33
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 10.8
Potential fits: Mavericks, Kings, Clippers
A near-max deal for Horford could be a poor value based on his age and position.
There's a reasonable argument that Horford -- with his ability to stretch the floor and defend away from the basket -- is more difficult to replace than a center who relies on scoring and defending at the rim, but will that remain the case as he reaches his mid-30s? At some point during the life of his next contract, Horford's superb basketball IQ may no longer make up for declining athleticism.
2018-19 RPM: 4.4 | 2018-19 WARP: 4.4
27. Trevor Ariza
Washington Wizards
Forward
Age: 33
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 10.8
Potential fits: Lakers, Clippers
The same kind of payday Ariza got last year from the Suns ($15 million for one year) won't likely be out there again this summer, but he should still have a robust market as a reliable veteran who can play both forward spots and provide adequate floor spacing.
2018-19 RPM: -1.6 | 2018-19 WARP: 3.9
28. Elfrid Payton
New Orleans Pelicans
Guard
Age: 25
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 10.7
Potential fits: Hornets, Pistons
Though he has started more than 86% of his career games, there may not be a starting role out there for Payton after injuries limited him to 42 games last season in New Orleans.
Payton did average a career-high 7.6 assists per game, but finally cutting his hair so it wasn't in his line of vision failed to produce any improvement as a shooter. These are tough times on Elfrid Payton Peninsula.
2018-19 RPM: -2.0 | 2018-19 WARP: 1.6
29. Tomas Satoransky
Washington Wizards
Guard
Age: 27
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 10.4
Potential fits: Wizards, Suns
As a replacement for injured John Wall, Satoransky averaged 10.7 points and 6.2 assists while shooting 40% on 3s as a starter last season.
With the luxury tax still looming for Washington, he'd be an interesting candidate for a midsized offer sheet from a team like the Suns that could use his ability as a spot-up threat. Most likely, though, Satoransky will be back with the Wizards as Wall remains sidelined.
2018-19 RPM: 0.6 | 2018-19 WARP: 2.5
30. Terry Rozier
Boston Celtics
Guard
Age: 25
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 10.3
Potential fits: Celtics, Suns, Bulls
These projections may underrate Rozier because they're based on the 22.7 MPG he averaged last season playing mostly off the bench rather than the starting role he'll likely have this season.
Still, he has derived a lot of mileage from shooting 38% on 3s during 2017-18 and averaging 16.5 PPG on below-average efficiency in that season's playoff run. Rozier has never posted a true shooting percentage better than 52.0 and is a poor playmaker for a point guard, suggesting the backup role he chafed at in 2018-19 may actually be most appropriate for him.
2018-19 RPM: -1.0 | 2018-19 WARP: 3.4