The Indiana Pacers got ahead of free agency by adding a forward to compensate for the fact that both of last year's starting forwards, Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young, will be unrestricted free agents. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns helped clear out their logjam at the forward positions and created some additional cap space so they can be players in free agency.
The deal
Pacers get: T.J. Warren, 2019 No. 32 pick* (KZ Okpala)
Suns get: Cash
*Sent to Miami Heat in separate deal
Get more trade grades for every deal here
Indiana Pacers: B
I'm curious to see where the Pacers see Warren fitting in their lineup. Primarily a small forward when he was drafted in 2014, Warren has slowly moved down the positional spectrum. That transition was partially a function of Phoenix loading up on wings.
Within the past two years, the Suns drafted Josh Jackson No. 4 overall, dealt for the rights to lottery pick Mikal Bridges and signed Trevor Ariza before trading Ariza to the Washington Wizards for Kelly Oubre. It's tough to say who was really the power forward when Ariza and Warren played together, though Warren was more clearly the 4 alongside the Suns' other small forwards.
Indiana doesn't have to decide on a position for Warren just yet and can base that on the outcome of free agency. If the Pacers can re-sign only one of Bogdanovic and Young, well, Warren fills the other spot in the starting five. Bogdanovic would be the first option since he's got a smaller cap hold ($13.7 million), meaning Indiana could use the remaining $20 million or so in cap space in free agency before going over the cap to re-sign him. That would put Warren at power forward.
Alternatively, the Pacers could look to reboot and let both Bogdanovic and Young walk. In that case, they'd have $30-plus million in cap space to pursue a replacement for free agent point guards Darren Collison and Cory Joseph. While Indiana isn't likely to contend for the top veteran point guards on the market, the team could be a destination for D'Angelo Russell if the Brooklyn Nets decide to rescind their qualifying offer to Russell and make him an unrestricted free agent.
In that case, Warren would probably land on the wing with the Pacers starting Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner in the frontcourt together. Such a combination would rely on Warren providing floor spacing. A master of the midrange early in his career, Warren adding 3-point range last season, making 77 triples in 43 games at a 43 percent clip. That's not a big enough sample to convince me that Warren is a lights-out shooter, but it's an encouraging sign. It resulted in Warren scoring with above-average efficiency for the first time in his five-year NBA career.
Besides the legitimacy of his shooting surge, whether Warren is a solid starter at either forward position will be determined by his defensive growth. He's consistently rated as a negative defensively, according to ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), albeit on teams without strong defensive coaching. Indiana's system turned Bogdanovic into a credible one-on-one defender despite a far weaker defensive track record, according to RPM.
If Warren were on the market as a free agent right now, I think he'd probably be looking for a three-year deal in the neighborhood of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (worth a projected $29 million over that span). By comparison, the $35 million Warren will actually make over the next three seasons is a mild overpay, one that's offset by the Pacers getting a strong draft pick at the top of the second round.
Phoenix Suns: C
The Suns' grade for this deal may take on further clarity as we see what other moves they have in store before the start of free agency on June 30. With Warren on the books, Phoenix would probably have been better off staying over the cap and using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception assuming the team re-signed Oubre as a restricted free agent. Now the Suns can create about $20 million in cap space while retaining Bird rights for Oubre and center Richaun Holmes, an unrestricted free agent with a minimum cap hold.
The real question is whether Phoenix wants to get all the way to the projected $27 million necessary to make a max offer to Russell as the long-term solution at point guard they've so desperately coveted. The Suns could accomplish that by renouncing the rights to Oubre, or they could also trade Jackson and renounce Holmes to get basically to the max.
If Phoenix goes forward with $20 million or so in cap space, that would seem to put the Suns in the market for the top restricted free agent point guards. Using most or all of that cap space on an offer sheet for Milwaukee Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon -- a nice fit next to Devin Booker thanks to his ability to run the offense or be a spot-up threat when Booker is at the controls -- would force the Bucks into a difficult decision.
Phoenix could also make a run at the likes of Delon Wright (Memphis Grizzlies) or Tyus Jones (Minnesota Timberwolves), strong backups whose teams may not want to pay them like starters. Terry Rozier of the Boston Celtics was once in this group, but may not be anymore with the likely departure of Celtics starter Kyrie Irving.