With three starters hitting free agency this summer, the Milwaukee Bucks' roster is about to get much pricier. There have been rumblings in recent days that Milwaukee would use this year's first-round pick to shed salary, and the Bucks ended up doing just that in this trade with the Detroit Pistons, saving at least $4 million in 2019-20 salary and more than that in 2020-21.
Bucks get: Jon Leuer
Pistons get: Tony Snell, 2019 No. 30 pick
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Milwaukee Bucks: A-
Every dollar may count this summer for the Bucks, who will now head into free agency with between $71-72 million committed to eight players -- assuming they waive guard George Hill, whose $18 million salary is just $1 million guaranteed through July 1.
Based on the current luxury-tax projection of $132 million, that would give Milwaukee about $60 million to re-sign Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton plus fill out the rest of the roster while staying under the luxury tax threshold. Given Middleton alone is likely to command a starting salary of $30-plus million, that could be difficult if Brogdon gets a big offer sheet as a restricted free agent.
The Bucks could increase their 2019-20 savings by waiving Leuer, who played just 402 minutes last season in Detroit, and stretching his $9.5 million salary. That would create an extra $6 million and change in 2019-20 payroll for Milwaukee at the cost of keeping Leuer's salary on the books the following two years. Still, the 2020-21 payroll would be far lower without Snell's $12.4 million salary.
ESPN front office expert Bobby Marks points out another interesting benefit for the Bucks with this trade. If they renounce the rights to their non-starter free agents (most notably Nikola Mirotic, who started in place of Brogdon much of the postseason before falling out of the rotation late in the Eastern Conference finals), they could create about $14 million in cap space -- more than $20 million if they do waive and stretch Leuer -- to use re-signing Lopez.
Because Lopez was on a one-year deal, Milwaukee has non-Bird rights to re-sign him only while exceeding the cap. That would allow the Bucks to pay him a maximum of $4.1 million, surely not enough. Milwaukee could use the non-taxpayer midlevel exception on Lopez, but that's still a maximum of an estimated $9.2 million and would hard cap the Bucks at the apron, approximately $6.6 million greater than the tax line.
If there's a robust market for Lopez on the strength of his key role in Milwaukee's league-best record, creating cap space would give the Bucks the ability to make a more competitive offer. They can then use their Bird rights on Brogdon and Middleton to go over the cap by re-signing them while also retaining the projected $4.8 million room midlevel exception to use adding to the bench.
Given first-round picks are the easiest way to add cheap talent to an expensive roster like Milwaukee will soon have, I'm never a huge fan of using them to dump salary. But in this case, if it makes the difference in retaining Lopez, the deal would be well worth it for the Bucks.
Detroit Pistons: B
The Pistons are something of an unlikely choice to add salary in this fashion given they've got their own tax concerns to worry about. Including Snell and the No. 30 pick, Detroit now has 11 players under guaranteed contracts for a total of a little less than $120 million. That would give the Pistons about $12 million to fill out the roster while staying under the current luxury-tax projection.
Detroit's front office may look at Snell as replacing a possible addition this summer in free agency. If the Pistons treated Leuer's salary as a sunk cost, paying $2 million extra for Snell is relatively cheap to add a wing who started 80 games for the Bucks in 2016-17 and 59 more in 2017-18.
Getting someone with the size to comfortably defend bigger small forwards was also important for Detroit, which primarily played shooting guards on the wing after dealing Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson at the trade deadline. Though starting shooting guard Bruce Brown plays bigger than his size defensively, that was still a tough task for someone listed at 6-foot-5.
Snell has the broad outline of a 3-and-D skill set. He shot 40 percent beyond the arc during three seasons with Milwaukee and has all the necessary physical tools defensively. But partially because Snell is such a low-usage player (he used fewer than 12 percent of the Bucks' possessions over the past three seasons), the whole has always been less than the sum of the parts. If Snell is the Pistons' starting small forward, he'll be one of the weaker starters at the position in the league.
As a result, Detroit might not feel great about paying $12.4 million in 2020-21, even with more cap flexibility after contracts for guards Langston Galloway and Reggie Jackson expire. The Pistons will console themselves with four years of the No. 30 pick on a rookie contract.