Where do the Boston Celtics stand with Al Horford prepared to join Kyrie Irving as an unrestricted free agent after declining his 2019-20 player option?
Reporting Tuesday by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski confirmed a breakdown in talks between Horford and the Celtics, leading him to prepare to test free agency for a long-term offer elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Boston awaits word about Irving's future amid growing evidence he plans to leave. (Wojnarowski reported recently there is strong mutual interest between Irving and the Brooklyn Nets.) And Anthony Davis is no longer an option for the Celtics after the New Orleans Pelicans agreed over the weekend to trade him to the Los Angeles Lakers. So where does that leave Boston this summer? Let's take a look.
How can Horford and Irving be replaced?
If Horford does decide to head elsewhere, the Celtics could unexpectedly become a player in free agency. Renouncing the rights to its other free agents (including restricted free agent Terry Rozier) would get Boston to approximately $28 million in cap space, enough to make a max offer to a player with six or fewer years of experience, such as Nets point guard D'Angelo Russell, who might be expendable if Irving signs with Brooklyn.
And the Celtics would be a few moves away from creating enough room to make a max offer to a player with seven to nine years of experience such as Charlotte Hornets point guard Kemba Walker as a replacement for Irving.
Pursuing a star point guard in free agency would leave Boston thin in the frontcourt, with Aron Baynes and youngsters Robert Williams III and Guerschon Yabusele as the remaining power forwards and centers on the roster -- plus, perhaps, some of this year's first-round draft picks. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could slide down to power forward in that scenario, but a Horford departure would mean the Celtics would take a significant hit up front.
Alternatively, then, Boston could look to re-sign Rozier and prioritize adding a cheaper player in the frontcourt. Keeping Rozier's cap hold would give the Celtics somewhere around $20 million in cap space. That's probably enough to give Boston its choice of big men on the market beside Orlando Magic All-Star Nikola Vucevic.
Milwaukee Bucks forward Nikola Mirotic would provide the floor spacing the Celtics got from Horford, albeit without nearly the same kind of defensive versatility. Al-Farouq Aminu of the Portland Trail Blazers and Thaddeus Young of the Indiana Pacers would be more defense-minded alternatives at power forward.
Then again, perhaps we're thinking about this all wrong.
Celtics' core suddenly young
If Horford and Irving both leave, Boston might have to rethink its timeline for competing in the Eastern Conference. Of the seven Celtics under guaranteed contract for 2019-20, only two -- Baynes and forward Gordon Hayward -- are older than 25. Tatum is 21, Brown is 22 and Rozier and Marcus Smart are both 25. Add in this year's draft picks and an extra first-rounder on the way from the Memphis Grizzlies in either 2020 or 2021, and Boston might be a few years away from peaking.
As a result, there's an argument to be made that the Celtics should focus either on signing veterans to short-term deals with an eye toward maintaining cap flexibility or younger free agents who can still be in their prime when Boston's young talent develops.
Depending what happens in free agency this summer with Toronto Raptors star Kawhi Leonard, Philadelphia 76ers starters Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris and the several Bucks starters who are available (Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton), the Celtics might find themselves at best a distant fourth in the East. (Depending on how they handle free agency, the Nets and Pacers could also both be ahead of Boston in the conference pecking order.)
Given that possibility, the Celtics are probably better off biding their time and waiting to rise up until after vets on other contenders have started to age, and free agency has threatened rivals. Specifically, Boston might prioritize positioning in case Giannis Antetokounmpo informs the Bucks he wants out next summer -- perhaps via trade a la Davis in New Orleans -- in advance of hitting free agency in 2021. By then, the Grizzlies' first-round pick could look even more favorable if it rolls over to the 2021 draft, when it will be entirely unprotected. And the Celtics would still have Tatum on a rookie contract as the centerpiece of such a deal.
I wouldn't blame Boston fans if they aren't in the mood to hear about waiting for another superstar to become unhappy and request a trade. Including Davis, the Celtics have been unable to land most of the stars meeting those criteria, and the star they did trade for -- Irving -- now appears headed out the door in unrestricted free agency.
Nonetheless, the situation probably isn't quite as dire for Boston as it appears right now. The Celtics still have solid young talent, led by Tatum, who might have the opportunity to take a step forward as the team's primary scorer in 2019-20. And while the value of Boston's stockpile of draft picks will dissipate as soon as three of them are made or dealt this year, the Celtics still have one of the very best ones out there in the Memphis pick. But instead of trying to contend for a championship next season with multiple stars, Boston now looks headed for a step back in the standings.