What does Klay Thompson's ACL injury mean for his future and the Golden State Warriors?
The disappointment of the Warriors falling short in their quest for a third consecutive championship was overshadowed by the news late Thursday night that Thompson tore the ACL in his left knee when he landed awkwardly after being fouled on a transition dunk attempt.
Thompson will now head into unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career while rehabbing the injury and facing an uncertain timeline for his return during the 2019-20 season, much like teammate Kevin Durant, who suffered a ruptured Achilles during Game 5 of the NBA Finals. How will that impact Thompson and how can Golden State replace him in the short term?
How much time can Thompson be expected to miss?
Though Durant's Achilles injury produces greater fear than the relatively more common ACL tear, the reality is ACL rehab has typically taken longer in recent years. As teams have become more conservative bringing their players back after surgery, no NBA player has returned to action in fewer than 10 ½ months since J.J. Hickson in 2014. (Hickson returned after just 7 ½ months.)
An 11-month timetable has been typical for ACL injuries in that span, with some rehab processes taking even longer. Most notably, Kristaps Porzingis ended up missing the entire 2018-19 season after tearing his ACL in February 2018, meaning he wasn't considered ready to return some 14 months after the injury.
With that in mind, the Warriors -- or another team with whom Thompson signs -- have to be prepared for him to miss the duration of the 2019-20 regular season before potentially attempting to return in the playoffs.
How does that affect Thompson's free agency?
Unlike Durant, Thompson does not have a player option, meaning he's headed for free agency this summer no matter what. Although Thompson's maximum salary is less than Durant's -- he's still in the bracket for players with 7-9 years of experience, projected for a 2019-20 maximum of $32.7 million as compared to $38.15 million for players like Durant with 10 or more years of experience -- a max deal for him surely carries somewhat more risk because Thompson has not historically been as elite a player as Durant.
Thompson's best leverage in free agency is his importance to Golden State, which would be shy of max-level cap space even in the unlikely scenario where both Durant and Thompson sign elsewhere. That would make it virtually impossible for the Warriors to replace both players in free agency. Given everything Thompson has meant to Golden State's run of three championships in five consecutive trips to the NBA Finals, it seems unthinkable the Warriors would risk letting him walk in free agency.
One possibility is Golden State offering Thompson a five-year max deal that no other team could match, but with some partial guarantees that would offer the Warriors cap relief in a worst-case scenario should Thompson deal with more injuries in the future. Joel Embiid's 2017 extension with the Philadelphia 76ers could be a model for such an offer.
How might Golden State replace Thompson?
One way or another, the Warriors will find themselves needing to fill in for Thompson and Durant in 2019-20 -- perhaps for just a single season (or part of it), but perhaps permanently if either or both players head elsewhere.
Assuming Thompson re-signs, Golden State would likely be limited to the taxpayer midlevel exception (projected at $5.7 million) to add free agents for more than the veterans minimum. And the Warriors would somehow need to find new starters at both shooting guard and small forward -- or at least someone capable of playing big minutes at small forward if veteran Andre Iguodala starts there, given Iguodala's age.
If Durant signs elsewhere, Thompson's injury could add urgency to Golden State's pursuit of a sign-and-trade deal that would create a trade exception in the amount of Durant's 2019-20 salary to trade for more expensive players. Convincing the team that lands Durant to do a sign-and-trade rather than signing him outright using cap space would probably require the Warriors parting with draft picks, something they've been reluctant to do during their championship run.
Alternatively, I suppose it's possible that Golden State might look at next season as a one-year break from the emotionally and physically draining pursuit of championships. The Warriors could regroup in 2020-21 with Thompson and/or Durant back on the court, hoping to use next season to develop younger alternatives such as 2018 first-round pick Jacob Evans and reserve Alfonzo McKinnie for depth purposes.
But that prospect seems unlikely with the core of the team save Draymond Green (29) in their 30s. Each year of late-prime Stephen Curry is too valuable to let go to waste. A step-back season also would be a tough way to open a pricey new arena in San Francisco.
Adding salary via a Durant sign-and-trade would hit Golden State's pocketbook hard, what with the team potentially entering the repeater tax next season. That means that each additional dollar the Warriors spend would cost a minimum of $2.50 more in luxury taxes. That's the price the Warriors have to pay to keep this championship core together, though their move to the more profitable Chase Center will help offset the tax bill.
Golden State's front office won't have much time to lament the NBA Finals loss and heartbreaking injuries to Durant and Thompson. With the NBA draft a week away and free agency a week and a half after that, the Warriors must soon get to work figuring out how to replace two of the league's best players.