A total of 461 players logged 100 minutes or more in the NBA last season and 83 of them (18%) were not drafted at all, while 107 (23%) were second-round picks.
There will be quite a few players from this 2019 NBA draft class who will carve out long careers in the league despite not hearing their names called by Adam Silver on June 20. The challenge is identifying which prospects will break through.
It's usually role players -- deemed to be the least upside-laden -- who fall in this category. Here, we highlight eight players to watch who aren't currently projected to be drafted in the first 30 picks of our latest mock draft. We've also included projected wins above replacement (WARP) and rank in ESPN's Kevin Pelton's stats-only draft projections.
Grant Williams | PF/C | Tennessee | No. 30 overall prospect
Potential role: Two-way stretch big
Why he fits: Williams is hardly a sleeper for those who followed college basketball this season -- he was a first-team All-American and won back-to-back SEC Player of the Year honors, something that hasn't been done since Corliss Williamson did so in 1995. An underwhelming showing at the NBA combine plus his below-average measurements could cause Williams to fall to the second round on draft night, which would likely be a huge mistake.
Williams brings a number of coveted attributes that suggest he will exceed his draft position, namely his competitiveness, smarts, physicality, productivity, youth and skill. He's only a few months older than some of the freshmen projected to be drafted, but he was already a dominant force in college basketball on both ends of the floor. Williams only attempted 44 3-pointers as a junior, which isn't ideal, but his excellent shooting mechanics, soft touch, strong work ethic and free throw success (shot 82%) indicate he should be able to improve rapidly in this area. Williams' basketball IQ, which shows up not only in his excellent passing ability but also in his anticipation skills defensively, allows him to play bigger than his size and should help him carve out a niche relatively early on in his NBA career. He looks comfortable switching onto smaller players on the perimeter, and he also has great timing as a rim-protector despite his relatively average physical tools.
Key stat: 31.2 PER (fourth best in draft)
Drawbacks: Williams is not only short at 6-foot-5 ¾ barefoot, he's also not exceptionally long (6-foot-9 ¾ wingspan) or freakishly athletic from a run-jump standpoint. It's difficult to find many players his size who successfully operate as small-ball centers -- possibly his most appealing position -- even in today's small-ball-oriented league. He started to show shooting promise as a freshman (39% from 3 on 1.5 attempts per game) but regressed in that area as his career moved on. That puts a lot of pressure on him to show better potential as a 3-point shooter in private workouts, as it's difficult to envision the bulldozing style he used so effectively in college translating without a consistent jumper. -- Jonathan Givony
Pelton projections: 0.9 WARP (No. 41)
Shamorie Ponds | PG | St. John's | No. 46
Potential role: Backup PG
Why he fits: Two of the league's top backup point guards would have belonged in this column in recent years. Monte Morris of the Denver Nuggets went No. 51 in 2017, while playoff breakout star Fred VanVleet was signed by the Toronto Raptors as an undrafted free agent. Ponds is a different style of player, much more of a score-first option off the bench than the playmaking Morris and VanVleet, but he shares with them a strong rating in my stats-based draft projections. Ponds ranks fifth overall in my stats-only projections, not far behind Morris and VanVleet, both of whom ranked third in their classes.
Key stat: 4.1 steals per 100 possessions (19th NCAA)
Drawbacks: Ponds measured less than 6 feet (5-foot-11 ½, to be exact) in bare feet at the combine, and unlike VanVleet (listed 6-foot), doesn't have the strength to compensate for his small stature. As a result, Ponds could struggle when asked to defend bigger guards one-on-one and getting through screens. -- Kevin Pelton
Pelton projections: 2.6 WARP (No. 5)
Dylan Windler | SF | Belmont | No. 37
Potential role: Wing shooter
Why he fits: One of the most efficient players in all of college basketball, Windler has all the makings of a role-playing wing shooter who can space the floor, impact the game as a cutter and rebound at an elite level for his position. A scratch golfer who didn't take basketball seriously until later in his high school career, Windler emerged on draft boards last season with his analytic-friendly production and 67.8 true shooting percentage, something he managed to increase as a senior. His clear value-add is his shooting, as Windler was a career 40.4% 3-point shooter at Belmont on 527 attempts. The lefty sports a simple, compact release with smooth mechanics that allow him to get going from well beyond NBA range on occasion. He can shoot on the move a little bit as well, and his feel for the game makes him attractive to teams that covet constant movement. He was the most efficient scorer off of cuts in the entire NCAA.
At 22 and 6-foot-8, he is a solid leaper, which played a role in his 69.2% clip at the rim in the half court. He's also a smart defender despite his narrow frame, understanding off-ball positioning and using his 6-foot-10 wingspan effectively.
Key stat: 31.0 PER (fifth best in the draft)
Drawbacks: Windler's weight resembles that of an off guard as opposed to a big wing. Somewhat of an awkward mover at times, Windler will inevitably have questions to answer on the defensive end, as he's not overly quick and lacks the physicality to handle power wings. Offensively, Windler's splits have always been a bit eye-opening in terms of how he performs against top-flight competition as opposed to the lesser teams in the Ohio Valley Conference.
As a senior, Windler feasted on teams under .500 (16 games), averaging 24.0 points on 68.3% shooting from 2 and 50.9% from 3. In 16 games against teams over .500, Windler's average dipped to 19.1 PPG on 64.0% from 2 and 34.2% from 3, including duds against UCLA, Purdue, Temple and Murray State. He's a different player when he sees his first shot go in as opposed to when he faces early-game adversity. Will he make enough shots in the limited time he's likely to have to prove himself in the NBA? Aside from a 35-point outburst against Maryland in the NCAA tournament, Windler has long been at his best when the pressure is off. On top of that, he can still stand to improve his live-dribble game, especially going to his right. -- Mike Schmitz
Pelton projections: 1.6 WARP (No. 15)
Chuma Okeke | SF/PF | Auburn | No. 38
Potential role: Versatile two-way forward
Why he fits: Okeke was in the midst of a lottery-level performance in the Sweet 16 against North Carolina when he suffered a torn ACL. Auburn's coaching staff had finally gotten Okeke to come out of his shell and play with the type of aggressiveness they wanted to see from him since arriving on campus. Just as he was developing into one of the most versatile forwards in the college game, he saw his momentum come to a halt and was forced to watch Auburn's run to the Final Four from the sidelines.
Nevertheless, ACL tears aren't anywhere near the game-changers they once were. Okeke fits the mold of the type of forward every NBA team is looking to add to its rotation, possessing guard skills with his ability to dribble, pass and shoot, while having the length and mobility to cover perimeter players and the bulk to check almost any big man, giving him coveted versatility for the modern game. It's difficult to find strong-framed wings with 7-foot wingspans who sport a positive assist-to-turnover ratio who also shot 39% from 3 in college. Considering where he's likely to be drafted, there isn't much risk in taking a flyer on a player with his talent level, especially for a rebuilding team that can afford to be patient with his rehab. His current injury situation may make him amenable to the type of longer-term second-round contract that could provide a team with huge value on the back end of the deal if he pans out.
Key stat: 9.3 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 1.7 blocks per 40 pace adjusted minutes
Drawbacks: Okeke suffered the injury in late March, meaning he is likely to miss all or most of the 2019-20 NBA season under a conservative medical staff. Using a roster spot on a player who is unlikely to play a single game all season isn't ideal for most teams that are trying to compete for a playoff spot. Even before the injury, he likely would have needed time and patience to reach his full potential. He's been known to be too deferential at times offensively, a hurdle he'll have to overcome as he rounds back into form. Defensively, his toughness came and went at times throughout his college career as well. -- Givony
Pelton projections: 2.6 WARP (No. 2)
DaQuan Jeffries | SF | Tulsa | No. 44
Potential role: 3-and-D wing
Why he fits: Jeffries is a versatile defender who can make an open 3 without needing much offensive volume to have an impact. A physical specimen with a ripped frame (216 pounds, 3.9% body fat), huge hands and impressive vertical explosiveness, Jeffries is a prototype NBA wing. He still has some untapped potential, as he doesn't turn 22 until Aug. 30. Jeffries is capable of checking at least three positions while having an impact off the ball, collecting 1.4 steals, 1.7 blocks and 7.9 rebounds per 40 minutes as a senior.
Offensively, he finished in the top 20 among top-100 draft prospects in true shooting percentage (62.5). He understands his role, sticking to mostly transition runouts, spot-up 3s and straight-line drives, often tearing down the rim as a finisher. Though he went down with an injury during the combine, Jeffries has proven enough in the pre-draft process to warrant heavy consideration in the early second round.
Key stat: Career 63.5 true shooting percentage
Drawbacks: Jeffries doesn't have the most natural feel for the game, and the jump from the American Athletic Conference to the NBA will be challenging. Given his rigid skill set, he'd be far more intriguing if he stood closer to 6-foot-7 or 6-foot-8 as opposed to 6-foot-5. He's a streaky shooter, needing time and space to get his shot off despite his career 38.5% mark.
Jeffries blended in at times during his Tulsa career, as he lacks a degree of scoring instincts. He'll have to adjust to going from a predominantly zone defense to more man principals in the NBA. Jeffries' physical profile will earn him a long shelf life in the NBA, but is he skilled enough to become more than a situational defensive specialist? -- Schmitz
Pelton projections: 1.0 WARP (No. 33)
Jontay Porter | C | Missouri | No. 42
Potential role: Stretch big
Why he fits: Porter came into the season projected as a potential lottery pick, but now he may not be a lock to get drafted after tearing his ACL twice in the span of just a few months. Despite how scary that is for a 6-foot-11 center who didn't bring great athleticism to start with, it's important to remember that Porter is still only 19, younger than a handful of freshmen projected to be drafted. It's difficult to find centers who can both space the floor from the 3-point line and demonstrate his type of basketball IQ as a passer. His near 9-foot-2 standing reach and excellent anticipation skills give him better defensive potential than his slow feet and injury history might indicate. If things come together for him down the road, his combination of size, skill and versatility could end up paying major dividends for a team that can afford to be patient with his recovery.
Drawbacks: It's almost unprecedented to see a player tear his ACL twice in the span of a few months. Porter's wide hips, doughy frame and overall conditioning level were never considered strengths prior to his injury. But to his credit, he shed more than 5% of body fat from his frame between the 2018 and 2019 NBA combines, dropping nearly 40 pounds from his peak weight. There were questions about whether he can move his feet on the perimeter well enough defensively to keep up with the fast-paced style of the NBA game even prior to his most recent setback, and his mobility is bound to take a hit in the short-term as he recovers. -- Givony
Pelton projections: 0.4 WARP (No. 60)
Zach Norvell | SG | Gonzaga | No. 63
Potential role: Wing shooter
Why he fits: Teams that emphasize shot attempts at the rim or beyond the arc will like Norvell, whose disciplined shot selection resulted in a strong 59.2 true shooting percentage doing two years in Spokane. More than 60% of Norvell's shot attempts came from beyond the arc, and he made them at a solid 37% clip. When Norvell did come inside the line, it was typically to get all the way to the basket, helping him shoot a robust 56% on 2-point attempts.
Key stat: 174 career 3-pointers (tied for sixth among 2017 recruits)
Drawbacks: Norvell is a below-average athlete, one reason he was ranked just 83rd by ESPN Recruiting Nation in the 2017 high school class. His 30-inch max vertical was the third-lowest recorded by any player at the combine, per NBA Advanced Stats. -- Pelton
Pelton projections: 1.7 WARP (No. 14)
Zylan Cheatham | PF/C | Arizona State | No. 45
Potential role: Energy big
Why he fits: Cheatham is one of the most physically gifted players in the draft, blessed with elite-level athleticism and a plus-six wingspan that allows him to play much bigger than his height. He's not only a dunk-contest caliber leaper, he's also extremely mobile in terms of his first step and ability to cover ground defensively on the perimeter. Cheatham plays with tremendous energy and does a great job of flying around and using his athleticism to impact the game on both ends of the floor, often being tasked with switching onto smaller players defensively. He rebounds with purpose, and he's adept at pushing the ball in the open court.
Cheatham generated an assist on 19% of his possessions, better than any big man in this draft. He's one of only two bigs (along with Grant Williams) to post a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. It isn't rare to find explosive athletes in the draft or strong passers, but you don't normally find an intersection between those two very different skill sets.
Key stat: 3.7 assists per 40
Drawbacks: Turning 24 years old in November, Cheatham is one of the oldest players in this draft class. He weighed in at just 217 pounds at the G League combine, making him a little light to play the small-ball 5 position at which he's probably best suited considering his limitations as a shooter. Cheatham wasn't a prolific scorer at either San Diego State or Arizona State and hit just 62% of his free throws as a senior, which may cause some teams to question whether he can bring enough to the table offensively to not be completely ignored by opposing teams. Despite his strong passing ability, he plays a somewhat wild and undisciplined style of basketball at times, being a little mistake-prone on both ends of the floor. -- Givony
Pelton projections: -2.0 WARP (No. 139)