Kevin Durant is out for Friday's Game 4 of the NBA Finals (9 p.m. ET on ABC). Klay Thompson is likely back. Where does that leave the series with their Golden State Warriors trailing the Toronto Raptors 2-1?
The injury news for the Warriors the day after losing to the Raptors 123-109 at home without either Thompson or Durant was mixed. Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters that Thompson will return from a mild hamstring strain, "barring something unforeseen." However, Durant was unable to practice on Thursday as the Warriors had hoped, leaving him sidelined for the ninth consecutive game due to a calf strain.
Given that update, should Toronto now be favored in the series? And how crucial is Durant's return to Golden State's chances of coming back? Let's take a look.
Projecting Game 4
Thompson's return alone should be a boon to a Warriors team that badly missed him at both ends during Game 3. Kerr opted to deploy Shaun Livingston in his place, producing Golden State's 10th different starting five of this postseason -- the most in the league since starters were first tracked in 1970-71.
While some of those changes have just involved Kerr rotating centers who played relatively few minutes, the addition of Livingston marked a wholesale change for the Warriors. Per lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats, Golden State's Game 3 starters -- Livingston, DeMarcus Cousins, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala -- played just 16 minutes together during the regular season and one minute prior to Wednesday in the playoffs.
That group was outscored 32-25 in 12 minutes of action in Game 3, struggling at both ends of the court. On offense, Golden State got little production in that span from anyone save Curry. And at the defensive end, the Raptors picked apart Cousins in the pick-and-roll, averaging 1.5 points per chance on the nine ball screens he defended, according to Second Spectrum tracking data.
We won't know until Friday exactly what kind of Thompson the Warriors will have available. It's unclear, for example, whether he'll be able to serve as Golden State's primary defender on Toronto star Kawhi Leonard, after taking over that assignment in the second half of Game 2 as the Warriors rallied to take the lead in that game. But even a limited Thompson gives Golden State a far better combination of shooting on offense -- which will help take the pressure off Curry, who scored 47 points in defeat on Wednesday -- plus size and athleticism on defense.
Golden State also can hope for shooting regression from the Raptors, who took full advantage of the open looks they were able to create against a weakened Warriors defense. Second Spectrum's quantified shot probability metric (qSP), which measures the difficulty of a team's shot attempts based on their location, type, the shooter's ability and the distance of nearby defenders, suggests Toronto could have been expected to shoot an effective field-goal percentage (eFG) of 54.6 percent in Game 3. The Raptors actually shot a sizzling 63.6 percent.
We've already seen Toronto's shot-making fail to carry over from one game to the next in this series. Second Spectrum calls the difference between a team's qSP and its actual eFG quantified shot making (qSM), and the Raptors went from a plus-6.3 qSM in Game 1 to minus-10.4 in Game 2. That's another example of what my past research has shown: Shot-making is more important than shot quality to deciding the outcome of a single game, but shot quality is far more consistent from game to game.
Durant's return?
With each passing day, the chances of Durant returning to practice and appearing in this series appear more questionable. I still don't think Golden State needs a Durant return to win the Finals -- as evidenced by their ability to win Game 2 in Toronto in what might have been comfortable fashion if not for Thompson's injury -- but for a variety of reasons, Durant's presence looks more important than it did before the series started.
First, there's the semi-obvious fact that the Warriors now have less room for error. When lower seeds have trailed 2-1 in a best-of-seven series played under the 2-2-1-1-1 format, they've gone on to win just 22 out of 176 series since 1984 (12.5%). In that context, it's remarkable respect for Golden State -- and the team's injured stars -- that the Warriors are still only slight underdogs to win the series at Caesars Sportsbook. Their minus-105 odds, as compared to minus-115 for the Raptors, imply an expected 49% chance of Golden State winning the series.
Second, Kevon Looney's injury has increased the need for the Warriors to be able to play Green at center, something they've rarely done in Durant's absence. According to NBA Advanced Stats research, Green has played just 12 minutes without one of Golden State's five centers (Cousins, Looney, Jordan Bell, Andrew Bogut and Damian Jones) on the court dating back to Game 2 versus the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference semifinals, the first one contest Durant missed. Green has played just three minutes at center so far in the Finals.
With Looney unavailable, the Warriors suddenly are reliant on Cousins to log heavy minutes in the middle shortly after returning from his own long-term injury (a tear of his left quadriceps). That worked in Game 2 of the Finals, when Cousins had 11 points, 10 rebounds and six assists to play a key role in the win. But in Game 3, when he struggled offensively (1-of-7 shooting) in addition to getting exploited on defense, Kerr surely would have appreciated being able to put Green in the middle.
Projecting confidence after Game 3, Green told reporters Golden State's plan.
"We've just got to continue to battle," he said. "Win the next game, go back to Toronto, win Game 5, come back to Oracle, win Game 6 and then celebrate. Fun times ahead."
That outcome is still possible for the Warriors despite the hole they're currently in. It becomes a lot more likely if Durant is able to return.