Can the Golden State Warriors win an NBA Finals game without Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant?
An MRI on Monday confirmed that Thompson suffered a mild hamstring strain late in the Warriors' series-tying victory on Sunday in Toronto, leaving him questionable for Wednesday's Game 3. While it's possible that Durant could make his long-awaited return from a calf strain on Wednesday, it's more likely that Golden State would be without both All-Star wings if Thompson is unable to go.
Could the Warriors, already short-handed after Monday's news that center Kevon Looney is out with a non-displaced cartilage fracture, win without two of their best players? Let's take a look at Golden State's chances and how the Raptors might respond.
Who would replace Klay?
Backup guard Quinn Cook, who played just 18 seconds in the Warriors' conference semifinal matchup with the Houston Rockets prior to Durant's calf injury in Game 5, finished Sunday's game in place of Thompson and seems like the logical choice to take his starting spot.
When Durant and Thompson are not on the floor, Golden State is troublingly low on shooting, and that's Cook's strength. Although the Warriors can't expect 3-of-5 accuracy from downtown like they got from Cook in Game 2, he's a 42% career 3-point shooter who isn't afraid to let it fly. His 6.6 3-point attempts per 36 minutes during the postseason are equal to Thompson's rate and more than Durant attempted (6.4 per 36).
Typically, Steve Kerr is reluctant to play Cook extended minutes because of the way opponents target him defensively. Just 6-foot-2, Cook is undersized for a shooting guard and not the kind of on-ball defender that Thompson is. That makes it harder for Golden State to stash Stephen Curry on a weaker offensive option when he plays with Cook. However, Toronto rarely hunts weak defenders for switches, and Curry can comfortably defend opposing number Kyle Lowry if necessary.
If Kerr wants to prioritize defense, particularly against Raptors star Kawhi Leonard, he could go with backup forward Alfonzo McKinnie. McKinnie has had primary defensive duty on Leonard when Thompson and Andre Iguodala are both on the bench, and he has held his own in the challenging matchup, one Iguodala rarely played after halftime Sunday. Since McKinnie was on the bench, the Warriors finished Game 2 with Draymond Green cross-matching on Leonard, leaving Iguodala defending bigger Toronto power forward Pascal Siakam.
Of course, with nearly 40 minutes to fill -- Thompson played 39 in Game 1 -- both Cook and McKinnie will get more playing time, as will veteran Shaun Livingston and perhaps even Jonas Jerebko as a small forward. It's all hands on deck for a Golden State team that could be down three regulars if Durant and Thompson join Looney on the sideline.
Would Toronto continue using box-and-one?
Trailing by nine with less than five minutes to go Sunday, Raptors coach Nick Nurse decided to utilize a defensive technique you're more likely to see in a high school game than the NBA Finals: a box-and-one zone defense, with Fred VanVleet face guarding Curry while Toronto's other four defenders formed a square around the paint.
The gambit almost translated into a comeback win. The Warriors immediately turned the ball over while attempting to get it to Curry, then missed their next six shot attempts before yet another turnover. All told, Golden State went eight possessions scoreless against the box-and-one defense before Andre Iguodala's 3-pointer held off Toronto's run and secured the victory.
Will Nurse turn to the box-and-one defense again in Game 3? On one hand, it's a logical reaction to a Warriors lineup that is short on shooting. As good as Golden State's remaining starters are -- and Green, Iguodala and DeMarcus Cousins have eight All-Star appearances and a Finals MVP among them -- 3-point shooting isn't their strength. As long as the Raptors can find the more dangerous Cook, and particularly if McKinnie plays instead of him, a box-and-one is surprisingly sensible.
According to Second Spectrum's quantified shot probability (qSP) measure, which approximates the expected effective field goal percentage on a shot based on the shooter, type, distance and location of nearby defenders, the Warriors' seven shots against the box-and-one were weak attempts. They had a qSP of 49.4 percent on those tries, compared to 54.5 percent in the game overall.
At the same time, Golden State won't be again caught off-guard by a junk defense with two days between games. The Warriors' ability to share the ball and move without it would likely eventually overwhelm a box-and-one. For example, with all four other defenders playing near the paint, Toronto would be vulnerable to VanVleet getting screened on the perimeter without anyone nearby to help on Curry -- a staple of the Golden State offense when defenses sag off non-shooters.
Additionally, because the box-and-one yields so many open 3-pointers -- including Iguodala's late make -- it's more appropriate for trying to make up a late deficit than for a game that starts on even terms. The risk of the Warriors catching fire beyond the arc and making Toronto pay is now a real concern. I doubt we'll see much box-and-one defense, if any.
Golden State needs strength in numbers without Klay
It's possible that this analysis is for naught. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Monday night that there is optimism among the Warriors that Thompson could play in Game 3 despite the hamstring strain.
If Thompson can't go or is limited, Golden State can certainly still win, particularly at Oracle Arena after getting a needed split north of the border. But the Warriors would need contributions from just about everyone who sees the court and great games from stars Curry and Green. Cousins, already thrust into a more important role by Looney's injury, also becomes a bigger factor because of his ability to generate offense.
So far, we've mostly discussed how Golden State's starting lineup looks in Thompson's absence. Keep in mind, though, that Thompson anchors the team's second units while Curry and Green sit. It's possible that Kerr could reorient his rotation to stagger Curry and Green, keeping one on the floor at all times. (Kerr could also extend Curry's minutes, as he did in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals against Portland, in which Curry played the entire second half, though that's risky with only one day off before Game 4.) More likely, the Warriors will turn to Cousins as a primary scorer alongside reserves.
That's a long list of things that need to go right for Golden State, without taking into account the condition of Iguodala's calf. We haven't yet found the number of injuries necessary to take down the 2019 Warriors, who shrugged off Durant's injury to win six games in a row and survived Thompson's absence late in Game 2. But playing without both Durant and Thompson would be Golden State's toughest challenge yet.