Crucial basketball decisions will be the focal point in Milwaukee this offseason. Despite having $73 million in guaranteed contracts and Bird rights on free agents Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon, the rest of the roster outside of Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo could see a makeover as a result of finances and cap restrictions. Or the Bucks could bring back mostly the same team but at a much higher cost.
Although 6 p.m. ET on June 30 marks the first time they can officially negotiate with free agents, Milwaukee general manager Jon Horst will need to have clarity on the price point for each of the team's own free agents to be able to plan ahead.
Here are the tough decisions that the Bucks will face this offseason, the financial implications and how their decisions will set up the franchise's future title contention.
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The free agents
The bench: George Hill and Nikola Mirotic
In a perfect world, these two midseason additions would be on the roster next season. After all, Hill is under contract for 2019-20 and Mirotic has Bird rights allowing the Bucks to exceed the cap to sign him. Both players also helped stabilize this bench. Decisions on these veterans will set the tone for what direction Milwaukee goes in free agency. The most likely outcome is that they become cap casualties.
Hill impacts the luxury tax bill and Milwaukee's options with Brook Lopez. Hill is not a free agent but has a July 1 trigger date that would see his $18 million contract become fully guaranteed. There is currently $1 million protected.
Guaranteeing Hill's contract puts Milwaukee at $93 million in guaranteed salary -- over the cap when factoring the $22.5 million in combined free-agent holds of Middleton and Brogdon. It would also see the Bucks lose cap space or the ability to use the $9.2 million full midlevel exception to sign Lopez. Milwaukee would be left with the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel. (Signing Lopez for more than $5.7 million in this scenario would hard cap Milwaukee at $138 million. The hard cap would put restrictions on what Milwaukee could offer Middleton and Brogdon.)
Coming off a two-year, $25 million contract, Mirotic is projected to command an annual salary of between $13 million and $14 million. If Mirotic is re-signed for that amount, the team is also left with the tax midlevel for Lopez. In the unlikely scenario that Hill is guaranteed, Mirotic is signed and Lopez once again takes a below-market contract with the Bucks, Milwaukee would be looking at salary of $160 million and a $77 million tax bill. The same 60-win roster from 2018-19 would cost an additional $110 million.
The three starters: Middleton, Brogdon and Lopez
It's important to start with Lopez here. After signing for the one-year, $3.3 million bi-annual exception last July, Lopez has non-Bird rights, restricting what Milwaukee can offer in a new contract barring additional moves: either $3.96 million or the $5.7 million tax midlevel.
For Milwaukee to create additional flexibility, Hill would have to be waived with every free agent outside Middleton and Brogdon renounced. The Bucks would have $10.3 million to use on Lopez, a figure that he will easily command in free agency. This eliminates the hard cap concerns. Milwaukee also would have the $4.8 million room exception to use on a free agent.
Trading Tony Snell is another way to create some room. Snell has two years and $24 million left on his contract and teams would need to view the 27-year-old not as a salary dump but more like a free-agent signing. The Bucks can only attach second-rounders in 2022, 2023 and 2026 to sweeten a deal. Trading Snell along with renouncing their free agents (outside of Middleton and Brogdon) gets the Bucks to $20 million in room, enough to sign Lopez and strengthen the bench.
The free agency of Middleton is more simple. The Bucks can offer Middleton a contract worth $189 million over five years or $147 million over four years on the first day of free agency. Either contract would take the guard off the board before he ever sets foot in a meeting with a different team. Or Milwaukee can let the market dictate what a new salary for Middleton should be. Though he's not a restricted free agent like Brogdon -- eliminating the option for Milwaukee to match an offer sheet -- the Bucks' front office will need to examine which team(s) exactly it's bidding against and how many teams are likely to offer Middleton a max deal.
There are seven teams projected to have more than $30 million in cap space: the Hawks, Nets, Mavericks, Pacers, Clippers, Lakers and Knicks. Take the Hawks (rebuilding), Nets (not a need at that position), Clippers (prioritizing Kawhi Leonard or Kevin Durant) and Knicks (likely to roll over cap space to 2020 if they can't get Leonard, Durant or Kyrie Irving) off the board for now. The leaves the Mavs, Pacers and Lakers, plus potential wild-card teams like the Sixers or Pelicans. Though Middleton is not a No. 1 option, he's likely to command a major pay increase and maybe even a max salary. Letting him hit the market would be a risky move.
Brogdon is coming off an impressive 50/40/90, making Bledsoe's recent four-year, $70 million extension a good estimate of Brogdon's market value. That $17.5 million per season cap hit would be in the top 15 among shooting guards.
Brogdon's agent, Danielle Cantor, probably will point to the contracts of Allen Crabbe, Kent Bazemore and Evan Fournier as a minimum starting point -- salaries that averaged $18 million per year. However, those three players were signed in 2016, when the salary cap exploded and teams took spending to an extreme. Those comps are unlikely to work with teams this summer.
Brogdon will have the option to sign the $3 million qualifying offer and enter unrestricted free agency in 2020, ranking among the best available shooting guards. However, there is the injury factor (he has missed 58 games in two seasons) and no guarantee that Brogdon would recoup the lost salary.
The temptation with cap space
There will need to be a cooling-off period after the loss to Toronto. If there is not, ownership in Milwaukee could have a knee-jerk reaction with the team's own free agents, leading to temptation to explore which players are available on the market.
Yes, Milwaukee could have up to $29 million (or $39 million if Tony Snell is traded) in room to go free-agent shopping by renouncing Middleton and Lopez. But that room would have to be used on replacements at starting small forward and center before even filling out the bench. Ownership is not in a position to make such a drastic move (unless Kevin Durant is coming).
Remember also that the goal behind trading a future first-rounder to Cleveland in December -- along with Matthew Dellavedova and John Henson -- was to create financial flexibility to retain these free agents. Antetokounmpo can sign a $247.5 million extension next summer, and bringing back the same starting five will only strengthen Milwaukee's case for him to commit long term.
The future finances
The Bucks probably will go from a team under the salary cap on July 1 to one in the luxury tax when training camp opens. The tax consequences are a result of Middleton and Brogdon going from a combined salary in 2018-19 of $13.5 million to a projected $50 million next season.
Here is a breakdown of the potential finances in Milwaukee for the next four seasons:
1. New contracts for Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez. First-round pick and bench filled with players signed to the minimum exception.
2. Same team returning and bench filled with players signed to the minimum exception.
3. First year of the Giannis supermax extension. Six players under contract.
4. Four players under contract: Giannis, Middleton, Brogdon and 2019 first-round pick.
Summer cap breakdown
Resources available to build the roster
The draft
Cash to buy draft picks
Own free agents
Cap space but at the expense of their own free agents
Cap exceptions
Dates to watch
• The first order of business for Milwaukee is extending Brogdon a $3 million qualifying offer by June 29, making him a restricted free agent.
• Expect Milwaukee to guarantee the contracts for Pat Connaughton ($1.7 million) and Sterling Brown ($1.6 million) by July 1.
Restrictions
• Starting July 1, Milwaukee can send out a 2026 first-round pick, but it must be unprotected.
• Milwaukee received $2 million cash from Washington in two separate trades and cannot receive more than $3.2 million cash in transactions before July 1.
• Bledsoe cannot be traded until Sept. 4. The restriction is a result of Bledsoe's signing an extension on March 4.
Extension candidates
Antetokounmpo qualified to receive a supermax extension when he earned All-NBA in 2018-19. However, the forward will need to wait until the summer of 2020 to sign the new contract.
The Antetokounmpo extension will be worth five years, $247.3 million, making it the largest contract in NBA history. Because he earned All-NBA in 2017-18 and 2018-19, Antetokounmpo is eligible next summer even in the unlikely scenario that he misses All-NBA in 2019-20.
Snell (starting July 31) and Brown are extension-eligible as well, though neither is likely to receive a new contract.
The draft assets
With financial restrictions on the roster and picks owed in the future, there is high priority on nailing this first-rounder in June.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Milwaukee selecting in June:
No. 30 (own): Ty Jerome | G | Virginia
Milwaukee will send a 2020 first-rounder to Phoenix (protected Nos. 1-7). If the pick doesn't convey, Milwaukee will send Phoenix an unprotected first-rounder in 2021.
The Bucks will also send a 2022 first-rounder to Cleveland (top-10 protected). The pick is protected Nos. 1-10 and Nos. 25-30 in 2023 and Nos. 1-8 in 2024. If not conveyed, the pick will turn into second-rounders in 2024 and 2025. The year Cleveland receives the pick is dependent on when Milwaukee's pick to Phoenix is conveyed, but 2022 is likely.