The Dallas Mavericks are the wild-card team of the NBA offseason.
Though the teams in New York and Los Angeles have garnered attention as likely destinations for free agents, Dallas has a unique advantage: two young franchise players in Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.
Is that enough for the Mavericks to swing a big move?
Let's look ahead to free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing Dallas this summer.
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The Doncic impact in free agency
A year ago, Luka Doncic was a 19-year-old playing for Real Madrid. A year later, the guard is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year and the face of this franchise. This offseason, we will find out if Doncic already has the ability (along with Porzingis) to attract free agents to Dallas.
By trading Harrison Barnes to the Sacramento Kings, the Mavericks signaled that they aim to chase a major free agent. The trade cleared out $25.1 million in salary and now has Dallas positioned to have up to $28 million in cap space. There will be no shortage of names mentioned for Dallas in free agency, from All-Stars such as Nikola Vucevic and Kemba Walker to the very best of players available (Kevin Durant).
The question now comes down to how strong the Doncic effect already is. If the Mavericks miss out on their free-agent targets, will it be considered a failure?
No, and here's why:
Doncic is under contract for the next three seasons at an average salary of $8.6 million. In 2018-19, his $6.6 million salary ranked No. 173 among all players.
Besides Doncic and Porzingis, only Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Brunson and Justin Jackson are under contract through 2020-21. The Mavericks could have $45 million in room next season.
With only Doncic, Porzingis and Brunson under contract the following season, Dallas projects to have $74 million in room in the summer of 2021. That free-agent class features Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, LeBron James, Blake Griffin, Paul George, CJ McCollum, Bradley Beal, Rudy Gobert and Victor Oladipo. So even if Dallas strikes out this time, Doncic and his team should get another shot if they're patient.
Porzingis' restricted free agency
Despite Porzingis not playing a game this season, Dallas has benefited from acquiring him at the trade deadline.
For starters, the medical team has gotten a full look at how Porzingis has progressed since tearing his left ACL in February 2018. That would not have been possible if Dallas had tried to sign Porzingis as a restricted free agent.
Dallas also can take advantage of $9 million in additional cap space given Porzingis' $17.1 million free-agent hold. Had the Mavericks pursued Porzingis as a free agent, Dallas would have needed the full $27 million amount to sign him to an offer sheet. Now, the Mavericks can add free agents using space and then circle back and sign the forward to a possible max contract.
But how much will it cost to retain Porzingis? First, Dallas will tender Porzingis a $4.5 million qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent. Though Porzingis has the right to sign the one-year contract and enter unrestricted free agency in 2020, the risk of possible reinjury and potential financial sacrifice make that unlikely.
Dallas will have two general options with a Porzingis offer:
1. The blank check
Before his injury, Porzingis was on his way to signing a five-year, $158 million contract with no restrictions. Now, with Porzingis coming off a serious knee injury, does Dallas take the same approach and leave itself exposed in the case of a future injury?
2. The max contract but with restrictions
Two years ago, the Philadelphia 76ers got creative when Joel Embiid signed a five-year, $147 million max rookie extension despite playing only 31 games in his first three seasons. The extension protected Philadelphia in case Embiid suffered an injury to his feet or back.
For Porzingis, the Mavericks can draw up a max contract with one of the below restrictions:
The prior injury exclusion: Known as an Exhibit 3 in the collective bargaining agreement, this kind of language could eliminate future compensation if Porzingis suffered a similar injury to the same knee again. The language is similar to what is included in Zach LaVine's contract with the Chicago Bulls.
Minutes criteria: Porzingis could need to play 1,650 minutes in two out of the first three seasons (2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22) for the final two years of the contract to become guaranteed.
Games played: Comparable to the minutes criteria, Porzingis could need to play a minimum of 55 games in 2021-22 (Year 3) or 2022-23 (Year 4) for the final seasons to become guaranteed.
Building out the bench
Before the season-ending injury to guard J.J. Barea, the bench in Dallas was a strength. Barea, Dorian Finney-Smith, Devin Harris, Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell produced a team-high plus-14.8 net rating in the 108 minutes they played together, marking the Mavericks' best lineup. But Dallas enters the offseason with all five players as free agents. Barea (34) continues to rehab from a ruptured right Achilles, with an uncertain timetable for his return.
How the Mavericks build out their bench will depend on one factor: Does Dallas need the $3.8 million in combined free-agent holds of Kleber and Finney-Smith to clear more cap space for new players? Dallas can retain both players and still have between $25-29 million in room.
Kleber and Finney-Smith give Dallas an advantage in free agency:
Both are restricted free agents, allowing the Mavericks to match any offer sheet
Kleber ($1.8 million) and Finney-Smith ($1.9 million) have low cap holds, allowing the Mavericks to utilize cap space first before signing either player
The same holds true with backup guard Trey Burke, who has a $1.6 million hold and early Bird rights.
The Mavericks also have the option of trading or using the waive-and-stretch provision on the $12.8 million expiring contract of Courtney Lee. A waive-and-stretch would create $8.5 million in additional room.
Summer cap breakdown
The Mavericks are operating over the salary cap because of the $21.3 million trade exception created when Zach Randolph was acquired from the Kings. For Dallas to create up to $28 million in room, the trade exception along with Barea, Salah Mejri and Burke would need to be renounced.
Resources available to build the roster
Cash to buy second-round picks
Cap space
Own free agents
Room midlevel exception ($4.8 million)
Dates to watch
• Expect the Mavericks to extend qualifying offers by June 29 to Porzingis, Finney-Smith and Kleber.
Because Porzingis did not play this past season, the forward failed to reach the starter criteria and will see his one-year offer drop from $7.5 million to $4.5 million. Porzingis will become an unrestricted free agent in 2020 if he elects to sign the qualifying offer. He would have veto power on any trade, though this scenario is highly unlikely.
• Signed to a three-year, $3.4 million contract after not getting drafted out of Florida, Finney-Smith has played 183 games (including 74 starts) the past three seasons. His qualifying offer is $1.9 million.
• Kleber was signed to a two-year, $2.2 million contract after spending the previous two seasons playing for Bayern Munich. The forward is eligible for a $1.8 million qualifying offer.
• The Mavericks also will have to decide by June 29 on the $1.4 million contract of Ryan Broekhoff. Dallas would save only $500,000 in room if Broekhoff were waived, but the team would gain an extra roster spot.
Restrictions and extension candidates
• As part of three separate trades, the Mavs received $2.1 million in cash and are restricted to receive no more than $3.1 million (based on future trades) before July 1.
• Dallas is not permitted to trade a first-round pick due to obligations owed to the Hawks and Knicks.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee are extension-eligible. After opting into his $10.3 million contract, Powell is expected to sign an extension once the free agency moratorium ends on July 6. The Mavericks can extend Powell for four-years and up to $55 million.
The draft assets
To acquire Doncic and Porzingis, Dallas traded future first-round picks in 2019, 2021 and 2023. The Mavs will send a 2021 unprotected first-rounder and a 2023 top-10 protected first-rounder to New York. The 2023 pick is protected Nos. 1-10 in 2024 and 2025, then converts to a 2025 second-rounder if not conveyed.
Dallas does retain its own second-rounder this year.
Here's whom ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Dallas selecting in June:
No. 37 (own): Bruno Fernando | C | Maryland