The Memphis Grizzlies yet again have a new head coach following a lottery appearance. However, unlike last year -- when the roster reached a crossroads -- this team will enter the offseason with two foundational pieces in Jaren Jackson Jr. and the No. 2 pick in the 2019 NBA draft (likely Ja Morant).
Now the attention will turn to Mike Conley. Will Memphis pursue a trade or enter the season with Morant and Conley in the same backcourt?
Let's look ahead to free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing Memphis this summer after hiring Taylor Jenkins.
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Establish a plan with Conley
The Grizzlies have made it known that they intend to take point guard Ja Morant at No. 2, according to a report by ESPN's Jonathan Givony. The Grizzlies also have a restructured front office led by Zach Kleiman and former Charlotte general manager Rich Cho.
That front office has two options with Conley this offseason:
1. Do nothing (for now)
What are the realistic expectations for this team?
If the front office believes that the .500 record in the month of March without Jackson is an indication that Memphis could contend for a playoff spot, then you hold onto Conley during the season. With Jenkins on board, Conley would serve as an extension of the staff. He also would serve as a mentor to the 19-year-old Morant.
However, Memphis cannot afford to leave a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the organization during the season, particularly with a new coach.
2. Take an aggressive approach now
If Conley were a free agent, would a team sign the guard to a two-year, $67 million contract? That question is what teams with salary-cap space (such as the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls) who miss out on free agents will have to ponder. Of course, trading for Conley will likely cost space and a first-round pick.
Trading Conley to a team over the cap this summer presents a challenge. Because the pool of available players shrinks due to free agency, cobbling together a trade that fits within 125 percent of Conley's $32.5 million salary will be difficult. Memphis would be looking at expiring contracts and a (likely protected) future first-round pick as a return.
Despite a draft that is projected to have a drop-off after the top three, it is highly unlikely teams in need of a point guard such as Phoenix (No. 6) or Chicago (No. 7) would trade out of the lottery for two years of Conley. Are there other assets available that would make a Conley deal worth it for Memphis? Even if the right trade doesn't materialize before the June draft, more Conley suitors might emerge in July if teams need a point guard after missing out on free-agent targets.
Sit tight with the Chandler Parsons contract
What options does Memphis have with Parsons' $25.1 million expiring salary?
Since returning to the team after mutually agreeing to part ways, Parsons became a part of the Grizzlies' rotation, averaging 20 minutes per game in March and April.
Now entering the offseason, the Grizzlies have four paths with Parsons:
They can do nothing and enter 2019-20 with Parsons on the roster.
Waive and stretch his $25.1 million salary over three seasons.
Buy him out of his contract and take a one-year cap hit.
Identify a trade partner but at the risk of taking back salary into 2020-21.
The logical choice is for Parsons to be on the roster when training camp starts in late September. Unlike the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers, which waived and stretched Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, respectively, to create cap space for this summer, Memphis is not in a position to be active in free agency, with or without Parsons.
Memphis could have up to $25 million in room if Parsons is stretched, Jonas Valanciunas opts out and Avery Bradley is waived, but it would be better for Memphis to take a conservative approach. The Grizzlies don't need to take on $8.4 million in dead cap space for the next three seasons. Memphis could simply let Parsons' contract expire heading into the summer of 2020.
Unless Parsons or the Grizzlies will make a significant financial concession, a buyout is likely a non-starter in the offseason. The market for Parsons as a free agent is likely around the $2.1 million minimum exception. Giving back any more than that does not make sense financially for the player, and such a small reduction wouldn't really benefit the Grizzlies. But this thinking could change in late February when Parsons has $6 million left on his contract.
Summer cap breakdown
Despite having $95 million in guaranteed salaries, Memphis is projected to be over the salary cap with an eye on the luxury tax threshold when free agency begins. Where the Grizzlies fall financially will depend on two factors: decisions on the $15.7 million in non-guaranteed contracts and the starting salary on a new deal for Jonas Valanciunas.
After not opting into his $17.6 million contract for next year, Valanciunas and the Grizzlies will likely work out a long-term commitment that could help Memphis financially in the short-term. If Valanciunas starts at $14 million per year and Avery Bradley is retained, Memphis would be $7 million below the tax threshold.
By waiving Bradley, cap flexibility would increase to $17 million. If Memphis can avoid the tax, it will have the full $9.2 midlevel exception to use.
Resources available to build the roster:
The draft: No. 2 pick
Cash to buy a second-round pick
Mike Conley: Trade or keep?
Own free agent: Delon Wright and Valanciunas
Expiring contracts
$5.7 million midlevel exception
Dates to watch
There are five dates to keep an eye on this offseason for Memphis.
• Memphis will need to decide by July 3 (at 3 p.m. ET) if it's going to guarantee the $12.9 million contract of Bradley. The guard currently has $2 million protected.
Waiving Bradley would give the Grizzlies financial flexibility but at the cost of a player who started a productive 14 games after the trade deadline. Bradley, CJ Miles and Parsons would give the Grizzlies three expiring contracts that would have trade value.
• Rabb and Brooks will see their $1.6 million contracts become guaranteed in July.
After playing all 82 games in 2017-18, Brooks underwent surgery in early January on a ruptured ligament in his right big toe and appeared in 18 games in 2018-19. Despite the injury, expect Brooks to be on the roster past his July 5 guarantee date. Rabb has started 14 games in two seasons, averaging 9.8 points and 6.9 rebounds. The 22-year-old has a July 15 guarantee date.
For a team over the salary cap, Brooks and Rabb present good value.
• Former first-round pick Caboclo has $300,000 guaranteed on his $1.8 million contract if he is not waived by July 10. The forward is still considered a developmental project even after five seasons in the league.
• The Grizzlies will tender Wright a $3.6 million, one-year qualifying offer by June 29. Having played primarily off the ball in his first three seasons in Toronto, Wright spent a majority of his minutes at PG in Memphis.
More of an emergency starter, Wright projects to cost $4-6 million in a backup role. However, with the addition of Morant in the draft, Memphis would be unlikely to match an offer sheet that exceeds $6 million per year given its financial situation.
Restrictions and extension candidates
• The Grizzlies are restricted to receiving no more than $2.6 million cash before July 1.
• The earliest that the Grizzlies can trade out of the first round is 2022 -- or two years after their protected 2020 pick to Boston has been conveyed.
• Despite opting out of his contract, Valanciunas is eligible for a two-year, $40.6 million extension. Miles can be extended for an additional two-seasons starting on July 18.
• The Grizzlies will not be in the market to extend contracts this summer. Beside Valanciunas and Miles, Memphis has four other players eligible for extensions in Conley, Parsons, Brooks and Rabb.
The draft assets
Memphis has finally found two core players in the draft by selecting Jackson last year and likely landing on Morant now.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Grizzlies selecting in June:
No. 2 (own): Ja Morant | PG | Murray State
Because its protected first-rounder was not conveyed to Boston this season, Memphis will owe the Celtics a first in 2020 (if Nos. 7-30) or unprotected in 2021.