A reality about the NBA is that despite winning 49 games during the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be remembered for losing 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs.
Now the front office will have to do a complete audit on what went wrong. Does the team need to consider a new direction at head coach? Are Russell Westbrook and Paul George untouchable in trade talks?
These are difficult questions, but ones OKC management will have to ask since this team has little flexibility to improve the roster due to luxury-tax constraints.
Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the Thunder this offseason.
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The direction at head coach
Sam Presti, the head of basketball operations, takes pride in stability and patience at head coach. Between Scott Brooks and Billy Donovan, OKC has had two coaches since 2009. Presti has taken a deliberate approach in how he evaluates the coaching staff, but those principles will be tested after a third straight first-round playoff exit.
How the Thunder evaluate the job performance of Donovan and his staff this season could require separating the season into two parts:
The 37-19 OKC team that was a top-3 seed in the Western Conference, ranking No. 13 in offensive efficiency and No. 5 in defensive efficiency to start the year.
The 12-14 OKC team after the All-Star break that was a missed George 3 from being the No. 8 seed, falling to No. 23 in offensive efficiency and losing its defensive identity.
Despite winning five games in a row to end the season, there was a carryover effect into the first round that mirrored how the Thunder played after the All-Star break.
Was that a result of the shoulder injury to George, the inconsistent play of Westbrook, the lack of consistent scoring support, Dennis Schroder regressing, the coaching staff or a combination of each?
Now with Donovan entering the last year of his contract and 11 players returning, the front office has to decide if a different voice is needed or if Donovan is the right coach moving forward.
While it is easy to call for firing the coach following a disappointing playoff performance, it could be challenging to find someone from outside the organization to mesh with Westbrook and lead a team that is built to win now.
Making the roster work
There will be no shortage of suggestions outside of OKC headquarters about how to fix what went wrong at the end of the season -- whether that's a roster overhaul, a new voice on the sideline or just running it back.
When it comes to an overhaul of the roster, keep in mind that Westbrook is entering the second year of a supermax contract that will pay him $38.5 million, $41.4 million, $44.2 million and $47 million annually over the next four seasons. Unlike John Wall, who is considered untouchable in trades because of his Achilles injury and has the same amount of money owed, Westbrook is movable, but the Thunder would be looking at acquiring expiring contracts and draft picks in return.
Finances aside, Westbrook has been the face of the franchise. He played a big role in George re-signing last offseason. Entertaining offers for the All-Star would signal a clear rebuild for an organization that has been developed through the draft and trades. It is not in this organization's DNA to chase cap flexibility for high-profile free agents, and that would likely be the return package for Westbrook.
Teams would also need to ask the following questions before trading for Westbrook:
Will the mileage since 2014-15 (35.1 MPG) catch up to him on the back end of the contract? Westbrook will turn 31 in November.
Is the inconsistent play this season a result of declining skills or a roster that lacked shooting?
Is Westbrook a No. 2 option at this stage of his career who is being paid like the No. 1 option?
If Westbrook were a free agent, would we sign him to a four-year, $170 million contract?
Like the Clippers did with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the Thunder also would have to remove the emotional element from the decision with a player who has never elected to become a free agent since he was drafted in 2008.
And that same logic holds true when it comes to George. After the Thunder led an exhaustive process of recruiting him during the 2017-18 season, George is coming off an MVP-level season and is under contract through 2020-21 season (with a player option in 2021-22). That puts George's trade value at an all-time high. OKC could have its pick of valuable players on controllable contracts (perhaps from teams such as the Celtics or Clippers) plus first-round picks if George were made available.
While it is unlikely that George would be moved only one year into a four-year contract, that thinking could change if the results are the same next year. But next summer George will technically be on an expiring contract, though it's unknown if George would decline a $37.9 million salary at age 31.
And that leads us to the rest of the roster, which includes:
Steven Adams: Owed $53 million over the next two seasons
Schroder: Owed $31 million over two years
Andre Roberson: Injured but on an expiring $10.7 million contract
Jerami Grant: Great value with a $9.3 million cap but considered an expiring due to his 2020-21 player option
Terrance Ferguson: In the third year of his rookie deal with a $2.5 million cap hit
Patrick Patterson: $5.7 million player option that he will likely exercise
Nerlens Noel: Likely to opt out of his $2 million contract
Removing the injured Roberson, unproductive Patterson and Noel leaves the Thunder with the five starters plus Schroder coming off the bench. So any changes to this roster will have to come via trade ($16.4 million in expiring contracts of Roberson and Patterson), player development (Hamidou Diallo, Deonte Burton, Abdel Nader and a first-round pick) or steals in free agency (minimums and the taxpayer midlevel).
Summer cap breakdown
For the fifth time in six seasons, Oklahoma City is projected to be in the luxury tax. On top of a $150 million payroll and an additional $57 million in tax penalties, the Thunder will be faced with roster restrictions to improve in free agency. Barring a trade, OKC will bring back 11 players from a team that lost in the first round, with the lone additions coming in the draft and free-agency-bargain market.
The Thunder will have the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception, plus trade exceptions of $10.8 and $1.5 million. However, using the tax midlevel would cost Oklahoma City an additional $24 million toward the tax.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft
Cash to buy draft picks (cannot make a cash trade until after July 6)
Expiring contracts
Cap exceptions: minimum and tax midlevel
Dates to watch
• Oklahoma City has two players, Noel and Patterson, who can opt out of their contracts by June 29.
While Noel has played a career-low 13.8 minutes per game, expect the former lottery pick to opt out of his $2 million deal. Noel will at least earn the same amount on a new minimum deal. The Thunder only have $2.4 million (non-Bird rights) or part of their $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel to offer Noel.
Patterson is expected to opt into his $5.7 million contract. Signed to the tax midlevel in 2017, the forward has disappointed in his two years with the Thunder. This season he averaged a career-low in minutes (14), points (3.75), 3-point percentage (33.8) and field goal percentage (37.6).
• The Thunder have roster decisions to make pertaining to reserves Nader and Burton. Nader has a July 15 date that would see his $1.6 million contract become guaranteed. The former second-round pick has come off the bench in 58 games, averaging 11.6 MPG and 3.9 RPG. Burton has $1 million out of his $1.4 million contract guaranteed if he is not waived by Aug. 1.
Since OKC is a tax team, decisions on both will come down to roster flexibility.
Restrictions and extension candidates
• As part of three trades this season to shed money toward the luxury tax, Oklahoma City cannot send out cash in a trade prior to July 1. The Thunder can agree to a draft-night deal for the rights to a second-round pick but cannot consummate the trade with cash until at the earliest July 6.
• OKC has three players with trade bonuses in their contracts: Westbrook, George and Adams. The 15 percent bonus for George and Westbrook is voided since they'll be making the maximum salary. Adams has a 7.5 percent bonus valued at $4 million. The full amount would be divided in half and added to his 2019-20 and 2020-21 salaries if he were to be traded after July 1.
• The Thunder owe protected first-rounders in 2020 (Philadelphia) and 2022 (Atlanta), so they're restricted from sending out another first until 2024.
• The Thunder have five players eligible for extensions: Adams, Schroder, Roberson, Patterson and Nader. Expect Oklahoma City to bypass talks on a new contract for each of the five players.
The draft assets
With limited roster flexibility, OKC's big offseason addition will likely come in the draft.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Oklahoma City selecting in June:
No. 21 (own): Cameron Johnson | PF | UNC
The Thunder owe two outstanding future first-round picks.
Oklahoma City will send Philadelphia a top-20 protected first in 2020 and Atlanta a lottery-protected first in 2022. If those firsts don't convey, the Thunder owe second-rounders to the 76ers in 2022 and 2023 and to the Hawks in 2024 and 2025.