How do you evaluate a team that won 50 games but lost in the first round of the playoffs?
For the Utah Jazz, that question will be at the forefront of how they evaluate their roster this summer.
Let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Utah this offseason.
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Continuity vs. flexibility
Since being named general manager in 2012, Dennis Lindsey has methodically built the Jazz through the draft, trades and small but effective free-agency moves. While other teams have been teased with cap space each summer, the Jazz front office has prided itself on continuity, with an emphasis on player development from head coach Quin Snyder and his staff.
The 2018-19 Jazz roster carries 10 players who were either traded for or drafted by Utah. The remaining balance of the team is comprised of five players who earned a combined $25 million this season. Remove Joe Ingles -- who was claimed in 2014 after being waived by the LA Clippers but signed multiple contracts as a free agent (2015 and 2017) -- and that number would shrink to $12 million.
During that six-year window, Utah has averaged 4.3 free agents per season, with the two-year, $21.5 million Joe Johnson signing in 2016 during the salary-cap spike representing the most Utah has spent on one free agent (outside of Ingles).
Now entering the offseason, Utah has the opportunity of change its approach, but it would come at a significant cost. While the mainstays of Donovan Mitchell, Ingles and Rudy Gobert return, Utah will be faced with decisions on Ricky Rubio, Derrick Favors and Kyle Korver.
Rubio, coming off a team-friendly $14.9 million salary that ranked him 15th among starting point guards, is set to become a free agent. Clearing his $22.4 million cap would leave the team with $13.8 million in room, though there isn't a stellar class of free-agent PGs to chase (Darren Collison and Patrick Beverley, for example). Unless the Jazz could put a package together for a player like the Memphis Grizzlies' Mike Conley, the best option would be to structure a new Rubio contract that is comparable to his original rookie extension (four years, $55 million) but not as much of a long-term commitment. A two-year contract would line up with what is still owed to Mitchell and give the Jazz flexibility come 2021-22, when Mitchell and Gobert both become free agents.
Whereas Rubio has the choice to pick his new home or remain in Utah, Favors' decisions is in Utah's hands. Favors has a $17.65 million non-guaranteed contract that becomes fully protected if he is not waived by July 6. While cap flexibility does have its advantage, Favors has been invaluable for the Jazz the past two seasons. The forward has been healthy, efficient and versatile, and he'd be a valuable trade chip on an expiring deal.
In the unlikely scenario that Favors is waived and Rubio is not brought back, Utah would have $31.4 million in room to sign two starters (and that would increase to $34.5 million if Korver is waived). Remember, this is the same front office that has never spent more than $10.1 million on a free agent.
The direction at point guard
The free agency of Rubio has left the Jazz exposed at point guard. Here are their options:
1. Sign Rubio to a three-year, $36 million contract with $6 million guaranteed in 2021-22 season
Behind Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker and D'Angelo Russell, Rubio is the fourth-best point guard available this summer and will earn at least the $9.2 million midlevel exception from a team in need of a playmaking guard.
The $13 million cap hit here would be $4 million more than he could earn with a team that has the full midlevel exception available. In total, $32 million would be guaranteed and the Jazz would have stability at the lead guard position.
2. Target free agents
Some potential options for Utah using its midlevel or cap space: Ish Smith, Cory Joseph, Beverley, Rajon Rondo and T.J. McConnell.
The Jazz could also target shooting guards, with the intention of moving Mitchell to more of a point guard role. When Rubio missed six games in January, Mitchell became the primary ball handler and had his best stretch of the season, averaging 30 points and 5.7 assists, shooting 51.2 percent from the field and posting a career-high usage rate of 32.5 percent. The Jazz also won every game.
3. Explore the trade market
With Conley once again likely to be available, the Jazz will need to weigh the risk reward versus reward of making a big deal.
The reward is an All-Star-caliber veteran guard who is under contract for the next two seasons. The risk is that the Jazz would need to give up something, most likely a package of Favors and a first-round pick.
Summer cap breakdown
Currently with $68 million in guaranteed salary (including their first-round pick), the Jazz can create up to $37 million in room.
The downside to creating flexibility? Utah would need to replace two starters -- Rubio and Favors -- along with replenishing its bench if Korver, Royce O'Neale, Raul Neto and Georges Niang are waived.
Resources available to build the roster
The draft
Cash to buy draft picks
Own free agents
Non-guaranteed contracts/potential cap space
Cap exceptions
Dates to watch and restrictions
Outside of O'Neal, Utah has four players -- Favors, Korver, Neto and Niang -- with July 6 or 7 guarantee dates.
• Favors' $17.6 million contract becomes guaranteed on July 6. The five-day window from when the moratorium is lifted on July 1 gives the Jazz some flexibility to see what the free-agent market is like before making a commitment to the power forward. Keep in mind that because Favors' salary is non-guaranteed, the value for trade purposes would count as $0 for outgoing salary.
• Neto's $2.1 million contract becomes guaranteed on July 6. With Rubio's free agency and Dante Exum injured, expect the salary for Neto to become guaranteed.
• Niang $1.6 million contract becomes guaranteed on July 6. Like Neto, expect the contract for Niang to become guaranteed.
• Korver's $7.5 million contract becomes guaranteed on July 7. Korver already has $3.4 million guaranteed, with the rest due at the end of the first week of July.
• Because of their non-guaranteed contracts, Favors, Neto, Niang and O'Neale will not count when it comes to outgoing salary that can be used in a trade. Korver's contract counts as $3.4 million, the amount that is guaranteed.
Extension candidates
The Jazz have four players who are extension eligible: Korver, O'Neale, Jae Crowder and Gobert.
While O'Neale has outperformed the three-year, $3.8 million non-guaranteed contract signed in July 2017, the Jazz can wait on a new contract because of his restricted status in 2020 and low cap hold.
Gobert is eligible starting Oct. 1 and can be extended for three-years, $96.3 million starting with the 2021-22 season. The $29.7 million cap hit in that season would be $8 million lower than his free-agent hold.
The draft assets
The Jazz will find themselves in familiar territory: drafting in the 20s. Since 2013, Utah has had five first-round selections in the 20s and will now add a sixth.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Utah selecting in June:
No. 23 (own): Grant Williams | PF | Tennessee
No. 53 (own): Charles Bassey | C| Western Kentucky