If the Indiana Pacers' exit in the first round proved anything, it was how valuable All-Star Victor Oladipo is to this franchise.
With Oladipo sidelined due to a knee injury, Indiana was swept by the Boston Celtics after looking like an East contender to start the year.
Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the Pacers this offseason, including many impending free agents.
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Prioritizing Bojan Bogdanovic
Don't let age get in the way when determining Bogdanovic's next contract. Despite turning 30 in mid-April, the Pacers forward is coming off his most efficient season since he entered the NBA in 2014 (18.0 PPG., 49.7 FG% and 42.5 3P%). Bogdanovic also has been durable, missing only 10 games in five seasons. Much of the success this year has to do with a Pacers coaching staff that has worked with Bogdanovic since his arrival in 2017 to create a midrange game that he lacked in his first three seasons.
The identity of Bogdanovic as only a 3-point specialist has been replaced with a player who has developed an all-around offensive game. During Bogdanovic's first four seasons, 45 percent of his shots came from 3-point range. This season that number dropped to 37 percent. Bogdanovic has also developed an ability to create offense off the dribble.
The downside to that improvement now comes with Bogdanovic set to enter free agency, as the Pacers are going to be penalized financially for his development. But how much? The market for Bogdanovic will be dictated by what the top of the free-agent food chain of All-NBA players decide to do, and also where Anthony Davis lands. For example, the Knicks, Clippers or Lakers could be a landing spot but only if their top targets are off the board. In this case, Bogdanovic would be a candidate for a one-year contract at a bloated salary, similar to what JJ Redick has signed in Philadelphia the past two summers. The Pelicans fit and have the money to make the commitment for more than one season. However, with the Davis talks in flux, New Orleans could be in a holding pattern when it comes to free agency.
When it comes to Bogdanovic's current team, two years of familiarity, stability and a defined role should not be discounted. While teams have prioritized short-term contracts with an eye toward future flexibility, Indiana can (and should) take the opposite approach and look long-term. Because only Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner have salaries north of $10 million, the Pacers could commit to a three-year, $39 million contract and still have cap space (up to $30 million) this summer and $45 million next season.
The directions with cap space
Consider the past two seasons an evaluation period for the summer of 2019. Faced with the aftermath of the Paul George trade in 2017, the Pacers front office went about constructing the roster to remain competitive and also have financial flexibility for this offseason. The players acquired after George left -- Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph -- were under contract for two seasons. The three players aligned with Thaddeus Young, who was acquired in 2016 while on a long-term deal. The result of that experiment was back-to-back 48-win seasons.
Now heading into the offseason, Indiana will need to decide if it's going to retain its own free agents, create cap space to chase new talent or pursue a combination of both.
Going the direction of clearing the maximum in cap space is filled with landmines. Despite being a team that has made the playoffs in eight of the past nine seasons, averaged 45 wins each year and is one of the better-run franchises, the reality is that the Pacers have not been a destination for All-Star free agents. There is also a belief that their three core free agents -- Collison, Bogdanovic and Young -- rank in the top 10 of the best available free agents at their own positions, and replacing all three would be seen as a step back.
While wiping away the cap holds of their seven free agents would create $44 million in room, the Pacers would be in the same spot they were two-years ago -- in need of a starting point guard, small forward, power forward and depth on the bench. They also have the uncertain timeline of when Victor Oladipo will return.
What the Pacers can do is maintain multiple options. For example, Indiana can go into the summer with the idea that Domantas Sabonis is the starting power forward, bring back Bogdanovic and still have $30 million in room to sign a point guard, shore up the bench and sign a stretch-4 (like Nikola Mirotic). Speaking of Sabonis, one question the Pacers have to answer this offseason is if there is a comfort level pairing him with Myles Turner in the starting lineup.
Indiana can also act like a team over the salary cap, sign the three key free agents and have the $9.2 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions to use. Remember, before the Oladipo injury, Indiana was 32-15 and on the path to a top-three seed in the East.
Summer cap breakdown
Resources available to build the roster
The draft
Cash to buy draft picks
Own free agents
Cap space
Cap exceptions
Dates to watch
The Pacers have decisions to make on two former second-round picks in Edmond Sumner and Alize Johnson.
Sumner had his two-way contract converted in early February and has a $1.6 million team option that the Pacers have until June 29 to exercise. If the option is picked up, the contract for 2019-20 will become guaranteed. Projected as a late first-round pick before he tore his left ACL in college, Sumner used a majority of 2017-18 as a redshirt season to rehab and make a full recovery. This season, the guard has spent a majority of his time in the G League, where he averaged 22 points in 31.4 MPG.
Two weeks after a decision on Sumner is due, Indiana will have a July 15 deadline to guarantee the $1.4 million contract of Johnson. ($762K of the contract is already guaranteed). Johnson also spent the majority of the season with the Pacers' G League team, where he averaged 19 points in 37 MPG. Because of their development this season and low-cost salary, expect Indiana to bring both players back.
Restrictions
Myles Turner has a poison pill restriction in his contract that will expire on June 30.
For trade purposes, the current $3.4 million salary counts as outgoing salary and $15.1 million (the average of his present deal and new extension) counts as incoming salary for an acquiring team.
Extension candidates
The Pacers took an aggressive approach last October when they sacrificed $8 million in cap space to sign Turner to a four-year, $72 million extension. Now, the attention turns to Sabonis, who is rookie extension eligible up until Oct. 23. How extension talks are approached will be dictated by what transpires in free agency, whether cap flexibility is a priority in 2020 and if there is a middle ground that benefits both sides. A new contract -- either in an extension or next July -- inevitably will see Sabonis earn more than his $10.6 million cap hold.
Besides Sabonis, Victor Oladipo is eligible to have his contract renegotiated and also extended. With two years remaining on a four-year, $84 million extension that he signed in Oklahoma City, Oladipo can be extended for three-years, $82 million starting Oct. 1. The extension would give Oladipo a modest raise ($21 million to $25.2 million) in 2021-22 but also put a financial burden on the organization if Oladipo does not return to full strength.
The Pacers will have up until Oct. 21 to decide what direction to go, and they are faced with two obstacles besides health. Indiana would need to use valuable cap space for a player already under contract for two more seasons. The Pacers would also have to wait until Oct. 31, the three-year anniversary of when his contract was extended. By late October, cap space will likely have been exhausted.
The draft assets
Outside of trading out of the first round in 2016 to acquire Thaddeus Young, Indiana has taken a conservative approach in recent years.
Now with June 20 approaching, the Pacers once again will have a first- and second-round pick.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Pacers selecting:
No. 18 (own): Rui Hachimura | PF | Gonzaga
No. 50 (own): Naz Reid | PF/C | LSU
The Pacers own all their future first-round picks.