When Luke Walton coaches his first game for the Sacramento Kings after the two sides agreed to a deal Saturday, he'll become the franchise's 10th coach in the 14 seasons since Sacramento last made the playoffs, in 2006.
Coming off their most wins since then, a 39-43 finish with one of the league's five youngest rosters weighted by minutes played, the Kings have more hope of returning to the playoffs than they've had in years. So can Walton succeed where his predecessors failed?
Let's take a look at how Sacramento projects and where Walton can help guide the development of a budding core.
The sure things: Fox and Hield
Much of Sacramento's 12-game improvement from 2017-18 to this season can be traced to guards De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. Fox made arguably the biggest jump in the league from Year 1 to Year 2, going from a sub-replacement contributor to second among second-year players in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric behind Ben Simmons. Hield took a more modest but solid step forward in his development. Together, their improvement as compared to last season was worth more than 11 wins based on their 2018-19 minutes played, according to WARP.
Now, the backcourt of Fox and Hield is the surest thing on the Kings' roster going forward. Although Fox improved so much in Year 2 that a step back next season is realistic, his development is far ahead of schedule at a position at which players tend to develop relatively late in their careers. Fox ranked ninth in ESPN's top 25 under 25 rankings this year, putting him in the company of some of the league's best young players. In time, he's likely to develop into Sacramento's first All-Star since DeMarcus Cousins.
Because he's already 26 -- after revealing last December he had previously been listed a year younger than his actual age -- Hield doesn't have the same kind of upside. But the centerpiece of the return for Cousins has developed into a high scorer, topping 20 points per game this season by virtue of a combination of more playing time, a faster pace and a 3.2-point increase in his points per 100 possessions. Hield hasn't made much progress as a playmaker and will likely always struggle defensively, but he's a reliable starter at a position that is difficult to fill. (Nobody knows that better than the Kings, who drafted Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas in the lottery before dealing for Hield.)
The potential star: Marvin Bagley III
How far Sacramento progresses as a franchise over the next three seasons will be closely tied to the development of Bagley, taken No. 2 overall in last June's draft. Playing primarily off the bench as a rookie, Bagley showed the scoring potential that made him a top pick but struggled defensively -- the big reason former Kings coach Dave Joerger opted to start veteran Nemanja Bjelica ahead of Bagley.
Bagley's minus-2.3 defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) ranked last among power forwards and was 3.4 points per 100 possessions worse than Bjelica's rating.
In some ways, the broad outline of Bagley's offense-first skill set should seem familiar to Walton, who had a similar big man in Julius Randle with the Lakers. Walton progressively gave Randle more minutes at center, relying on his ability to switch pick-and-rolls rather than asking him to protect the rim like a more traditional 5-man. Bagley's athleticism gives him similar potential as a switch defender.
Playing Bagley at center also gives him more space to operate offensively, which is good news because he's already difficult to stop one-on-one. Bagley has the quickness to face up slower centers and beat them off the dribble, as well as the strength to overpower smaller defenders on switches. If he can develop into an interior force and become even adequate defensively, Sacramento's future looks much brighter.
The wild card: Harrison Barnes
When the Kings acquired Barnes from the Dallas Mavericks at the trade deadline, they were surely hoping he would bolster a run at a playoff spot. That wasn't realistic given Sacramento's relatively weak point differential and overachieving first half, and indeed the Kings went just 11-17 after adding Barnes. Individually, Barnes played well. His .578 true shooting percentage in Sacramento would have been a career high for a full season and was dramatically better than his below-average .538 mark with Dallas.
Barnes played for Walton during his two seasons as an assistant with the Golden State Warriors, including the 43 games Walton served as acting head coach while Steve Kerr was sidelined following back surgery. And ideally, his role with the Kings will be similar to the one Barnes played for the Warriors. His improved efficiency in Sacramento was consistent with having to create less on offense. Barnes' usage rate dropped from nearly 24 percent of the Mavericks' plays to 16 percent with the Kings, almost identical to his final season in Golden State.
Viewing Bagley as a center would allow Walton to put Barnes primarily at power forward, where he has been more effective because he's strong enough to hold up defensively and has a quickness advantage on offense.
Walton's role
It's easy to see why Sacramento general manager Vlade Divac found Walton an ideal candidate to replace Joerger on the sideline. The Kings' surprising 2018-19 success was built largely on playing at a fast pace, which masked the team's offensive limitations in the half court. According to Cleaning the Glass data, the Kings ranked 22nd in points per play in half-court situations but had the fewest such plays in the league, ranking No. 1 in transition opportunities and fourth in points per play in transition. Walton's Lakers were third in transition frequency and ranked second in 2017-18.
By playing smaller and putting three shooters (Barnes, Buddy Hield and sixth man Bogdan Bogdanovic) around Fox and Bagley, Sacramento should be able to score more efficiently in the half court. That leaves building a competent defense out of young, defensively challenged players as Walton's biggest task.
That's precisely what Walton's 2017-18 Lakers did, ranking 13th in defensive rating with Randle and rookie Kyle Kuzma playing the most minutes of any frontcourt players. This season's Lakers finished in the same spot, more testament to Walton's ability to cobble a solid defense out of flawed parts.
Walton will have to deal with something that hasn't been an issue for Sacramento's recent coaches: expectations. Given how dramatically the Kings outperformed expectations this season, some growing pains might be in store, particularly with the West playoff race likely to be even more crowded next season. For the first time in several rebuilds, however, the Kings have building blocks in place. Now it's up to Walton to successfully put them together.