No team in the NBA outperformed expectations this season more than the Sacramento Kings, who were predicted to finish with the league's second-worst record but ended up winning 39 games. Now comes the hard part: taking the next step into the playoffs. Heading into the offseason, which path do the Kings take?
The first decision came one day after the season ended, when GM Vlade Divac fired head coach Dave Joerger.
Two days later, Divac would hire former Lakers coach Luke Walton. The team that Walton will now lead returns 11 players next season, including four of its five starters, and it will be expected to once again contend for a playoff spot.
With a roster that ranks among the 10 youngest in the league, Divac identified Walton as the perfect fit -- one that has a skill set well suited to the identity of the roster, prior experience, including with a title team in Golden State, and a strong player development background.
Let's look ahead to free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the franchise this summer.
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Take a conservative approach with Willie Cauley-Stein
The Kings' offseason priorities could leave the free-agent center waiting for a lucrative offer that never comes. Besides a lack of leverage given his restricted tag, Cauley-Stein could be squeezed out based on the future free agency of Hield (2020), Bogdan Bogdanovic (2020) and Fox (2021) -- not to mention the Kings utilizing their cap space early.
That's not to say Sacramento should let an effective center walk for nothing or even bypass extending him the one-year qualifying offer. The Kings just need to be realistic about how much they can afford to pay Cauley-Stein while maintaining long-term flexibility, especially given their depth at the position with Marvin Bagley III and Harry Giles.
Rookie extension options for Hield
The Kings are in a unique position when it comes to Hield. On the surface, the 26-year-old has earned a July 1 contract extension comparable to the four-year, $80 million deal offered to Zach LaVine last July. Consider this for Hield:
Career season in PPG (20.7), FG% (46.1), RPG (5.2) and APG (2.4)
Durability: two games missed in three seasons
No. 8 among SGs in real plus-minus wins
True shooting percentage (58.9) that ranks ahead of Klay Thompson, LaVine, Devin Booker and CJ McCollum
Four years is the most Sacramento can offer in an extension unless it's a max contract, but that would also keep the team from maximizing cap space in 2020.
Because Hield signed his rookie contract a year before the 2017 collective bargaining agreement began, he has a relatively low $14.5 million cap hold in 2020. By holding off on a new deal for Hield until he hits restricted free agency, the Kings could try to swing for another key piece before their young stars get expensive.
Summer cap breakdown
Like the Chicago Bulls did with Otto Porter Jr., the Kings took an aggressive approach at the trade deadline by sacrificing cap flexibility this summer for a player who can contribute now in Harrison Barnes. The difference is that Porter is under contract in Chicago through 2021-22, while Barnes has a $25.1 million player option this summer.
If Barnes opts in -- which is likely -- the Kings will have $23 million left to use in free agency. That figure could increase to $39 million by waiving the non-guaranteed contracts of Yogi Ferrell and Frank Mason III, while also renouncing Cauley-Stein's cap hold.
The resources available to build the roster
Second-round picks from the Magic and Lakers
Cash to buy a draft pick: $5.2 million
Cap space: $23 million
Own free agents
Tradable contracts
Dates to watch
• Expect Cauley-Stein to receive a $6.2 million qualifying offer by June 30, making him a restricted free agent. The Kings have the right to pull the offer by July 13 if they need to use his $14.1 million cap hold.
• The Kings were smart to put a July 4 trigger date on Ferrell's contract. The three-day extension after free agency starts on July 1 gives them an additional $3.15 million in room to use in free agency before they have to commit to the point guard.
• Former second-round pick Frank Mason will have his $1.6 million contract guaranteed if he is not waived by Oct. 15. Even though his minutes have decreased, Mason is a good insurance policy as a third PG.
• Barnes has until June 29 to decide on his $25.1 million player option.
Restrictions
• The Kings cannot trade a 2020 first-round pick until after the draft since they owe their 2019 pick to Boston or Philadelphia.
• Sacramento is prohibited from acquiring Zach LaVine until July 8 (a year after his offer sheet was matched by Chicago).
• The Kings received $1.5 million as part of the Garrett Temple trade and are restricted to taking back no more than $3.7 million before July 1.
• BJ Johnson has a July 1 trade restriction. Because Johnson signed a non-guaranteed contract, the deal would count as $0 for outgoing salary.
Extension candidates
Bogdanovic is extension-eligible after signing a three-year, $27 million contract in 2017. Starting on July 13 he can agree to a deal worth, at most, four years, $51.4 million.
Exploring an extension would not cost the Kings cap flexibility in 2020. Bogdanovic has a $16.2 million cap hold, and the first year of an extension would start at $11.5 million.
The draft assets
While the Kings are out their own first-round pick, they do have two picks projected for the middle of the second round.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Sacramento selecting in June:
No. 40 (via L.A. Lakers): Ignas Brazdeikis | PF | Michigan
No. 47 (via Orlando): Joshua Obiesie | PG/SG | Wuerzburg
No. 60 (via Milwaukee): Justin Wright-Foreman | PG | Hofstra