After making the playoffs in four of the past five seasons, the Washington Wizards are on pace for their lowest win total since 2012-13. That led to GM Ernie Grunfeld being fired on Tuesday after holding the job for 16 seasons.
What's next for this franchise and Grunfeld's eventual replacement?
Let's look ahead to the free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing Washington this offseason, including the team's long list of expiring contracts and potential trade talks surrounding All-Star guard Bradley Beal.
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The direction at GM
For the first time since 2003, Washington will have a different person to shape the roster. With Grunfeld out, ownership now shifts to finding a GM with a new long-term plan.
There is no shortage of decisions awaiting Grunfeld's replacement, including:
A lottery pick in June
Retooling around Beal or tearing down the roster?
The health of John Wall following his Achilles injury, and the financial impact on the team as he begins the first year of his supermax deal
10 impending free agents, but little flexibility outside of their own players to improve the roster in the offseason
The new hire in Washington needs to have realistic expectations with this roster, and so does ownership. At best, the current team is in the running for a playoff spot, but it's not at the level of the rising powers in the Eastern Conference.
However, does ownership have the patience for what will be at least a two-year rebuild?
How to prioritize their free agents
Because three of Washington's five players under contract for next season -- John Wall, Bradley Beal and Ian Mahinmi -- combine to earn $80 million, the Wizards have little flexibility in July. How the Wizards restock their depth chart and stay below the $132 million luxury-tax line will come down to the front office prioritizing its free agents. Washington only has $38 million available to spend to avoid the tax.
The good news is that the Otto Porter Jr. trade gave Washington breathing room. Had Porter not been traded, the Wizards would have had $121 million in committed salary while facing the same circumstances.
Here is the direction that Washington should take this offseason:
John Wall's Achilles injury makes signing Satoransky in the offseason a major priority for the Wizards. In the absence of Wall, the former second-round pick started 46 games, averaging 10.9 points and 4.9 assists in 26.6 minutes. Washington has the right to match an offer sheet since Satoransky will have the restricted tag, and the team can use Bird rights to exceed the cap to sign him.
Expect the price of Satoransky to fall between $6 million and $8 million.
2. Bobby Portis
In the two-month audition since he was acquired from Chicago, Portis has been the Wizards' second-best player behind Beal. A prototypical stretch-4 who has played 90 percent of his Wizards' minutes at the 5, Portis has logged a 54.7 true shooting percentage since the trade.
Expect the four-year, $44 million Larry Nance Jr. contract to be a starting point for negotiations with Portis (who is also restricted).
The Wizards found a bargain when they claimed Bryant off waivers from the Lakers in July. After appearing in 15 games with L.A. last season -- plus 37 in the G League -- the 20-year-old has started 45 games this season while averaging 18.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Bryant will be a restricted free agent, but his early Bird rights limit what Washington can offer in a new contract. The first year of a new deal cannot exceed 105 percent of the average player salary, which is projected to be about $10.5 million. The Wizards are also protected by the Arenas provision when it comes to Bryant. An opposing team is restricted to offering Bryant a starting salary that cannot exceed the projected $9.2 million midlevel exception. The projected salary for Bryant is $5 million to $7 million per year.
4. Trevor Ariza
Without a small forward on the roster, retaining Ariza is a priority but only if the first-year salary ($6-8 million) fits within the Wizards' budget after taking care of Satoransky, Portis and Bryant. Ariza has non-Bird rights and can be signed for up to $17 million. Washington could be outbid by teams such as the San Antonio Spurs or Utah Jazz that can use the $9.2 million midlevel exception.
After being acquired at the deadline, Parker has played his best basketball since his ACL tear in 2017. However, he will become a free agent once the Wizards decline his $20 million team option. Washington does retain non-Bird rights on Parker once the option is declined and could sign him to a new contract without using one of its exceptions.
Out of the NBA a year ago, Randle signed a pro-rated minimum contract in mid-December. The 26-year-old became the primary backup once Wall was lost for the season and has averaged 5.5 PPG in 14.8 MPG while shooting 41 percent from 3. Randle is a restricted free agent, but because he has non-Bird rights, the maximum Washington can offer in a new contract is $1.9 million -- unless the team uses part of its midlevel exception.
7. Jeff Green
Green would be higher on the list, but his non-Bird rights and luxury-tax concerns will likely make the forward a cap casualty. Washington can sign him to only a $3.0 million contract or use up to $5.7 million of its midlevel exception.
8. Sam Dekker
On his fourth team in as many years, Dekker has accumulated his most efficient play during this stretch in Washington (15.4 MPG, 50.3 percent shooting and 5.9 PPG). Dekker could be a low-cost option at the $1.7 million minimum exception in free agency.
The future of Bradley Beal: Build around or trade?
The Wizards are faced with an interesting choice when it comes to the future of Beal. The All-Star is not only the team's best player but also the lone tradable asset on the roster. The question for the front office comes down to this: Does Washington look at Beal as part of the future, or is it better to extract the most value from his standout season with an eye toward rebuilding the roster?
Here is why Beal is so valuable around the league:
Contract: $27.1 million and $28.8 million cap hits in 2019-20 and 2020-21 ($5 million below the max)
Age: turns 26 on June 28
Durability: played 82 games for a second consecutive season; played 77 games in 2016-17
Coming off a great season: 37.6 MPG, 25.9 PPG, 58.4 TS%, 5.2 RPG and 5.6 APG
Washington would need to get an overwhelming trade package that would kick-start a rebuild to consider a deal.
Summer cap breakdown
Resources available to build the roster
The draft: Top-10 pick
Cash: $2.4 million to buy a pick
Own free agents
Cap exception: $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel
Six trade exceptions: $8.6 million, $6.0 million, $5.4 million, $957,000, $714,000 and $694,000
Dates to watch
• The Wizards will have to make decisions on many of their free agents by the end of June. The first one will be to decline Jabari Parker's $20 million team option by June 29. Although Parker has had positive moments since his mid-February arrival, keeping him at the current price would put the team into the luxury tax. Parker is more of an expensive luxury than a priority.
• Expect Satoransky ($3.9 million), Portis ($3.6 million), Bryant ($3 million) and Randle ($1.8 million) to receive qualifying offers and become restricted free agents. Former first-round pick Sam Dekker ($3.9 million) is more likely to become an unrestricted free agent.
Restrictions
• Three separate trades that saw Washington send out $2.87 million in cash leave the team with $2.36 million to use before July 1. The cash allotment will refresh to $5.6 million once free agency begins in July.
• John Wall has a 15 percent trade bonus that will be voided if the Wizards trade him after July 1 because he will be making a true maximum salary. The contract combined with Wall's Achilles injury has left the market for Wall dry.
• Jordan McRae and Tarik Phillip have July 9 trade restrictiosn. Because both are signed to non-guaranteed deals, their contracts would count as $0 for outgoing salary in a trade.
Extension candidates
• If Beal does not earn All-NBA honors, Washington could extend him for $111.8 million over three years starting in 2021-22.
• Ian Mahinmi is the only other Washington player eligible for an extension.
The draft assets
This will be the first time since 2013 that the Wizards are selecting in the top 10. Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Washington selecting:
No. 9 (own): Sekou Doumbouya
The Wizards own all their future first-round picks.