Throughout the season, we're checking in on which big NBA topics are real.
In this edition: Should Jayson Tatum be off the table in any potential Anthony Davis trade talks? And how real are the Portland Trail Blazers?
Buy or sell: Jayson Tatum is already too good to trade for Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis was the most talked about player in the NBA at this month's deadline following his trade request. Due to a unique player contract rule, the Boston Celtics were unable to trade for Davis this season unless they gave up Kyrie Irving. That won't be an issue if Irving opts out this summer. The big question now is whether Boston would be willing to put standout sophomore Jayson Tatum -- perhaps the most valuable player connected to these trade talks -- in a deal.
Tatum is one of the most impressive young players in the league right now. He has excellent size at 6-foot-8 and a polished offensive game. He's athletic, a willing defender and a solid rebounder. Tatum also is a strong shooter from all over the court, making 49.0 percent of his 2s, 40.8 percent of his 3s and 84.1 percent of his free throws in his short career. He can score off the dribble using the pick or by simply attacking his defender.
Last year, Tatum capped an All-Rookie first-team season with a strong playoff run in which he led the Celtics to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals with a team-high 18.5 PPG on 57.8 percent true shooting (TS%).
This season, at only age 20, Tatum's production compares favorably with other big, young wings over the past 25 seasons. Tatum is one of only nine wings 6-foot-6 or taller to average more than 15 PPG in year two or three of his career at age 20 or younger since 1995-96, according to Basketball Reference. That list also features Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady.
Considering his skill set, age and early accomplishments, it would not be surprising to see Tatum challenging for All-NBA in the near future. Plus, the Celtics have him locked into a rookie-scale deal before he can become a restricted free agent in 2021. So can Boston afford to trade him?
For most teams, the answer would likely be no, but the Celtics are in a unique situation. First, they are deep on the wing. They have former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who will be two years removed from his major ankle injury and presumably back close to full strength for next season. They have 22-year-old Jaylen Brown, who was a primary scorer for the team as a sophomore and capped last season by averaging 18.0 PPG on 56.3 TS% in the playoffs. Add in Marcus Smart, and the Celtics would still have plenty of star-caliber talent on the wings if Tatum were dealt.
And Davis is truly an MVP-caliber talent entering his absolute peak seasons. He doesn't turn 26 until March. Davis also is a big man, and while the Celtics are deep on the wings, they are thinner in the middle. Concentrating some of their depth into MVP-caliber talent and balancing their roster could help the Celtics take the next step to becoming a true championship contender ... for next season, at least.
On paper, it would make sense for the Celtics to upgrade from a potential star on the wing to a bona fide superstar big man. But that's only if Davis is willing to commit to Boston long-term. Tatum is too valuable to trade for a one-season rental. I sell that Tatum is too good to trade for AD, but I buy that Tatum shouldn't be in a potential deal unless Boston is confident Davis will re-sign in 2020.
Buy or sell: The Trail Blazers will go further in the playoffs than the Celtics
The Celtics and Blazers square off on Wednesday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN) with nearly identical records, facing a similar set of challenges in their paths to and through the postseason. This was not how most expected things to look for these two teams at this point in the year.
Entering the season, the Celtics had much higher expectations and were on the short list of favorites to make the NBA Finals. On the other hand, the Blazers were coming off getting swept in the first round and had serious questions about how much they could improve. Now Portland may actually be in better position for the rest of the season.
The 37-24 Celtics enter this game in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, two games behind the fourth-place Philadelphia 76ers in the race for home-court advantage and three games behind the third-place Indiana Pacers for the right to not have to face an elite team in the first round. The Celtics have lost three straight games and five of their past seven. They've already endured multiple public spats and disagreements that seem to indicate a lack of confidence and cohesion in the locker room.
Meanwhile, the 37-23 Trail Blazers enter the game fourth in the Western Conference, two games ahead of the Houston Rockets for home-court advantage and only a game back of the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Blazers have won four straight and eight of their past 11. New additions Enes Kanter and Rodney Hood have strengthened their bench significantly.
For both teams, playoff seeding is key, because the matchups between the 4-seed and 5-seed in each conference project as very tough battles. The 76ers have championship aspirations after adding Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris to their already strong core of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and JJ Redick. Meanwhile, the Rockets were up 3-2 against the Golden State Warriors in last season's Western Conference finals before Chris Paul went down. They may still be the biggest threat to the Warriors when healthy. While the third seed in each conference projects to face tough opponents as well, the chances of advancing on either side are much better with home-court advantage against the sixth seed than having to slog through the 4/5 battle.
I expect the Celtics to eventually come out of their slump and find their top level before the postseason. Boston still has the fourth-best scoring margin in the NBA at plus-5.4, and the Celtics have won 12 of their past 13 games in which Hayward has scored double digits. Hayward was playing some of his best basketball of the season before spraining an ankle coming out of the All-Star break, and his return to health should help Boston improve down the stretch.
With that said, the Celtics are far enough behind the surprisingly surging Pacers that time is growing short to snag the third seed. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are right behind the Thunder, who have the hardest remaining schedule in the league, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index. While they still have a lot of work to do to improve their seeding and eventually advance in the playoffs, I do buy that the Blazers are in a better position to go further in the playoffs than the Celtics.